Social network based information campaigns can be used for promoting beneficial health behaviours and mitigating polarisation (e.g. regarding climate change or vaccines). Network-based intervention strategies typically rely on full knowledge of network structure. It is largely not possible or desirable to obtain population-level social network data due to availability and privacy issues. It is easier to obtain information about individuals' attributes (e.g. age, income), which are jointly informative of an individual's opinions and their social network position. We investigate strategies for influencing the system state in a statistical mechanics based model of opinion formation. Using synthetic and data based examples we illustrate the advantages of implementing coarse-grained influence strategies on Ising models with modular structure in the presence of external fields. Our work provides a scalable methodology for influencing Ising systems on large graphs and the first exploration of the Ising influence problem in the presence of ambient (social) fields. By exploiting the observation that strong ambient fields can simplify control of networked dynamics, our findings open the possibility of efficiently computing and implementing public information campaigns using insights from social network theory without costly or invasive levels of data collection.
We investigate consensus formation and the asymptotic consensus times in stylized individual- or agent-based models, in which global agreement is achieved through pairwise negotiations with or without a bias. Considering a class of individual-based models on finite complete graphs, we introduce a coarse-graining approach (lumping microscopic variables into macrostates) to analyze the ordering dynamics in an associated random-walk framework. Within this framework, yielding a linear system, we derive general equations for the expected consensus time and the expected time spent in each macro-stat…
We identify influential early adopters in a social network, where individuals are resource constrained, to maximize the spread of multiple, costly behaviors. A solution to this problem is especially important for viral marketing. The problem of maximizing influence in a social network is challenging since it is computationally intractable. We make three contributions. First, propose a new model of collective behavior that incorporates individual intent, knowledge of neighbors actions and resource constraints. Second, we show that the multiple behavior influence maximization is NP-hard. Further…
This work is aimed at studying realistic social control strategies for social networks based on the introduction of random information into the state of selected driver agents. Deliberately exposing selected agents to random information is a technique already experimented in recommender systems or search engines, and represents one of the few options for influencing the behavior of a social context that could be accepted as ethical, could be fully disclosed to members, and does not involve the use of force or of deception. Our research is based on a model of knowledge diffusion applied to a ti…
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
We investigate the two-word Naming Game on two-dimensional random geometric graphs. Studying this model advances our understanding of the spatial distribution and propagation of opinions in social dynamics. A main feature of this model is the spontaneous emergence of spatial structures called opinion domains which are geographic regions with clear boundaries within which all individuals share the same opinion. We provide the mean-field equation for the underlying dynamics and discuss several properties of the equation such as the stationary solutions and two-time-scale separation. For the evol…
With the passage of time, the development of communication technology and transportation broke the isolation among people. Relationship tends to be complicated, pluralism, dynamism. In the network where interpersonal relationship and evolved complex net based on game theory work serve respectively as foundation architecture and theoretical model, with the combination of game theory and regard public welfare as influencing factor, we artificially initialize that closed network system. Through continual loop operation of the program, we summarize the changing rule of the cooperative behavior in …
Influencing (and being influenced by) others through social networks is fundamental to all human societies. Whether this happens through the diffusion of rumors, opinions, or viruses, identifying the diffusion source (i.e., the person that initiated it) is a problem that has attracted much research interest. Nevertheless, existing literature has ignored the possibility that the source might strategically modify the network structure (by rewiring links or introducing fake nodes) to escape detection. Here, without restricting our analysis to any particular diffusion scenario, we close this gap b…
Social contagion has been studied in various contexts. Many instances of social contagion can be modeled as an infection process where a specific state (adoption of product, fad, knowledge, behavior, etc.) spreads from individual to individual through links between them. In the meantime, other forms of social contagion may better be understood as a diffusion process where the state of an individual tends to assimilate with the social norm (i.e., local average state) within his/her neighborhood. Unlike infection scenarios where influence is nonlinear, unidirectional, fast, and potentially disru…
Online social networks (OSN) are prime examples of socio-technical systems in which individuals interact via a technical platform. OSN are very volatile because users enter and exit and frequently change their interactions. This makes the robustness of such systems difficult to measure and to control. To quantify robustness, we propose a coreness value obtained from the directed interaction network. We study the emergence of large drop-out cascades of users leaving the OSN by means of an agent-based model. For agents, we define a utility function that depends on their relative reputation and t…
IBM Research - India（IBM印度研究院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
We study the problem of analyzing influence of various factors affecting individual messages posted in social media. The problem is challenging because of various types of influences propagating through the social media network that act simultaneously on any user. Additionally, the topic composition of the influencing factors and the susceptibility of users to these influences evolve over time. This problem has not studied before, and off-the-shelf models are unsuitable for this purpose. To capture the complex interplay of these various factors, we propose a new non-parametric model called the…
Adoption processes in socio-technological systems have been widely studied both empirically and theoretically. The way in which social norms, behaviors, and even items such as books, music, or other commercial or technological product spread in a population is usually modeled as a process of social contagion, in which the agents of a social system can infect their neighbors on the underlying network of social contacts. More recently, various models have also been proposed to reproduce the typical dynamics of a process of discovery, in which an agent explores a space of relations between ideas …
We consider the diffusion of new products in social networks, where consumers who adopt the product can later "recover" and stop influencing others to adopt the product. We show that the diffusion is not described by the SIR model, but rather by a novel model, the Bass-SIR model, which combines the Bass model for diffusion of new products with the SIR model for epidemics. The phase transition of consumers from non-adopters to adopters is described by a non-standard Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model, in which clusters growth is limited by adopters' recovery. Therefore, diffusion in the Bass-…
The problem of finding optimal set of users for influencing others in the social network has been widely studied. Because it is NP-hard, some heuristics were proposed to find sub-optimal solutions. Still, one of the commonly used assumption is the one that seeds are chosen on the static network, not the dynamic one. This static approach is in fact far from the real-world networks, where new nodes may appear and old ones dynamically disappear in course of time. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse how the results of one of the typical models for spread of influence - linear threshold - …
Given the huge impact that Online Social Networks (OSN) had in the way people get informed and form their opinion, they became an attractive playground for malicious entities that want to spread misinformation, and leverage their effect. In fact, misinformation easily spreads on OSN and is a huge threat for modern society, possibly influencing also the outcome of elections, or even putting people's life at risk (e.g., spreading "anti-vaccines" misinformation). Therefore, it is of paramount importance for our society to have some sort of "validation" on information spreading through OSN. The ne…
Research on influence maximization has often to cope with marketing needs relating to the propagation of information towards specific users. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that the success of an information diffusion campaign might depend not only on the number of the initial influencers to be detected but also on their diversity w.r.t. the target of the campaign. Our main hypothesis is that if we learn seeds that are not only capable of influencing but also are linked to more diverse (groups of) users, then the influence triggers will be diversified as well, and hence the…
The advent of the digital era provided a fertile ground for the development of virtual societies, complex systems influencing real-world dynamics. Understanding online human behavior and its relevance beyond the digital boundaries is still an open challenge. Here we show that online social interactions during a massive voting event can be used to build an accurate map of real-world political parties and electoral ranks. We provide evidence that information flow and collective attention are often driven by a special class of highly influential users, that we name "augmented humans", who exploit…
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors influencing the growth of healthcare virtual communities of practice (VCoPs) through a seven-year longitudinal study conducted using metrics from social-network and semantic analysis. By studying online communication along the three dimensions of social interactions (connectivity, interactivity and language use), the authors aim to provide VCoP managers with valuable insights to improve the success of their communities. Design/methodology/approach: Communications over a period of seven years (April 2008 to April 2015) and between 14…
Information is key during a crisis such as the one produced by the current COVID-19 pandemic as it greatly shapes people opinion, behavior and their psychology. Infodemic of misinformation is an important secondary crisis associated to the pandemic. Infodemics can amplify the real negative consequences of the pandemic in different dimensions: social, economic and even sanitary. For instance, infodemics can lead to hatred between population groups that fragment the society influencing its response or result in negative habits that help the pandemic propagate. On the contrary, reliable and trust…
The unprecedented availability of large-scale human behavioral data is profoundly changing the world we live in. Researchers, companies, governments, financial institutions, non-governmental organizations and also citizen groups are actively experimenting, innovating and adapting algorithmic decision-making tools to understand global patterns of human behavior and provide decision support to tackle problems of societal importance. In this chapter, we focus our attention on social good decision-making algorithms, that is algorithms strongly influencing decision-making and resource optimization …
We consider a population of interconnected individuals that, with respect to a piece of information, at each time instant can be subdivided into three (time-dependent) categories: agnostics, influenced, and evangelists. A dynamical process of information diffusion evolves among the individuals of the population according to the following rules. Initially, all individuals are agnostic. Then, a set of people is chosen from the outside and convinced to start evangelizing, i.e., to start spreading the information. When a number of evangelists, greater than a given threshold, communicate with a nod…
Mass Manipulation in Simulated Social Networks: Dominating vs. Diversifying Attention
Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics, Garching（马克斯·普朗克天体物理研究所）；Faculty of Physics, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑大学物理学院）；Cognition, Values & Behavior Lab, Munich Interactive Intelligence Initiative, LMU Munich（慕尼黑互动智能倡议认知、价值观与行为实验室）；German Center for Astrophysics, Görlitz（格尔利茨德国天体物理中心）
In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and apply them to a situation, where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the same size. The models differ in the way the two forces influencing consumer choice -- (local) social interactions and (global) advertising -- interact. We study the general behavior of the models using the Mean Field Approach and Monte Carlo simulations and calibrate the models to data from the Polish telecommunications market. For one of the models criticality is observed -- below a certain critical level of advertising the market a…
The objective of this study was to investigate the importance of multiple county-level features in the trajectory of COVID-19. We examined feature importance across 2,787 counties in the United States using a data-driven machine learning model. We trained random forest models using 23 features representing six key influencing factors affecting pandemic spread: social demographics of counties, population activities, mobility within the counties, movement across counties, disease attributes, and social network structure. Also, we categorized counties into multiple groups according to their popul…
