Opinion dynamics - the research field dealing with how people's opinions form and evolve in a social context - traditionally uses agent-based models to validate the implications of sociological theories. These models encode the causal mechanism that drives the opinion formation process, and have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, as they do not exploit the availability of data, their predictive power is limited. Moreover, parameter calibration and model selection are manual and difficult tasks.
In this work we propose an inference mechanism for fitting a generative, agent-like model of opinion dynamics to real-world social traces. Given a set of observables (e.g., actions and interactions between agents), our model can recover the most-likely latent opinion trajectories that are compatible with the assumptions about the process dynamics. This type of model retains the benefits of agent-based ones (i.e., causal interpretation), while adding the ability to perform model selection and hypothesis testing on real data.
We showcase our proposal by translating a classical agent-based model of opinion dynamics into its generative counterpart. We then design an inference algorithm based on online expectation maximization to learn the latent parameters of the model. Such algorithm can recover the latent opinion trajectories from traces generated by the classical agent-based model. In addition, it can identify the most likely set of macro parameters used to generate a data trace, thus allowing testing of sociological hypotheses. Finally, we apply our model to real-world data from Reddit to explore the long-standing question about the impact of backfire effect. Our results suggest a low prominence of the effect in Reddit's political conversation.
Behavior and Sublinear Algorithm for Opinion Disagreement on Noisy Social Networks
College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Fudan University（复旦大学计算机科学与人工智能学院）；Shanghai Key Laboratory of Brain-Machine Intelligence for Information Behavior（上海信息行为脑机智能重点实验室）；School of Business and Management, Shanghai International Studies University（上海外国语大学商学院）
Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）
We explore a method to influence or even control the diversity of opinions within a polarised social group. We leverage the voter model in which users hold binary opinions and repeatedly update their beliefs based on others they connect with. Stubborn agents who never change their minds ("zealots") are also disseminated through the network, which is modelled by a connected graph. Building on earlier results, we provide a closed-form expression for the average opinion of the group at equilibrium. This leads us to a strategy to inject zealots into a polarised network in order to shift the averag…
Passive consumption of a quantifiable amount of social media information related to a topic can cause individuals to form opinions. If a substantial amount of these individuals are motivated to take action from their recently established opinions, a movement or public opinion shift can be induced independent of the information's veracity. Given that social media is ubiquitous in modern society, it is imperative that we understand the threshold at which social media data results in opinion formation. The present study estimates population opinion formation thresholds by querying 2222 participan…
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学科学研究所）
We explore a new mechanism to explain polarization phenomena in opinion dynamics in which agents evaluate alternative views on the basis of the social feedback obtained on expressing them. High support of the favored opinion in the social environment, is treated as a positive feedback which reinforces the value associated to this opinion. In connected networks of sufficiently high modularity, different groups of agents can form strong convictions of competing opinions. Linking the social feedback process to standard equilibrium concepts we analytically characterize sufficient conditions for th…
The pervasive use of social media has grown to over two billion users to date, and is commonly utilized as a means to share information and shape world events. Evidence suggests that passive social media usage (i.e., viewing without taking action) has an impact on the user's perspective. This empirical influence over perspective could have significant impact on social events. Therefore, it is important to understand how social media contributes to the formation of an individual's perspective. A set of experimental tasks were designed to investigate empirically derived thresholds for opinion fo…
Indian Institute of Technology（印度理工学院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
In this paper, we study how to shape opinions in social networks when the matrix of interactions is unknown. We consider classical opinion dynamics with some stubborn agents and the possibility of continuously influencing the opinions of a few selected agents, albeit under resource constraints. We map the opinion dynamics to a value iteration scheme for policy evaluation for a specific stochastic shortest path problem. This leads to a representation of the opinion vector as an approximate value function for a stochastic shortest path problem with some non-classical constraints. We suggest two …
The process of opinion formation through synthesis and contrast of different viewpoints has been the subject of many studies in economics and social sciences. Today, this process manifests itself also in online social networks and social media. The key characteristic of successful promotion campaigns is that they take into consideration such opinion-formation dynamics in order to create a overall favorable opinion about a specific information item, such as a person, a product, or an idea. In this paper, we adopt a well-established model for social-opinion dynamics and formalize the campaign-de…
This paper proposes a network model of opinion dynamics based on both the social network structure and network centralities. The conceptual novelty in this model is that the opinion of each individual is weighted by the associated network centrality in characterizing the opinion spread on social networks. Following a degree-centrality-weighted opinion dynamics model, we provide an algorithm to partition nodes of any graph into two and multiple clusters based on opinion disagreements. Furthermore, the partition algorithm is applied to real-world social networks including the Zachary karate club…
Social media platforms have emerged as a hub for political and social interactions, and analyzing the polarization of opinions has been gaining attention. In this study, we have proposed a measure to quantify polarization on social networks. The proposed metric, unlike state-of-the-art methods, does not assume a two-opinion case and applies to multiple opinions. We tested our metric on different networks with a multi-opinion scenario and varying degrees of polarization. The scores obtained from the proposed metric were comparable to state-of-the-art methods on binary opinion-based benchmark ne…
Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allow…
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni-dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni-dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution ca…
In this paper, we study the evolution of opinions over social networks with bounded confidence in social cliques. Node initial opinions are independently and identically distributed; at each time step, nodes review the average opinions of a randomly selected local clique. The clique averages may represent local group pressures on peers. Then nodes update their opinions under bounded confidence: only when the difference between an agent individual opinion and the corresponding local clique pressure is below a threshold, this agent opinion is updated according to the DeGroot rule as a weighted a…
We introduce a new opinion dynamics model where a group of agents holds two kinds of opinions: inherent and declared. Each agent's inherent opinion is fixed and unobservable by the other agents. At each time step, agents broadcast their declared opinions on a social network, which are governed by the agents' inherent opinions and social pressure. In particular, we assume that agents may declare opinions that are not aligned with their inherent opinions to conform with their neighbors. This raises the natural question: Can we estimate the agents' inherent opinions from observations of declared …
Instead of studying the properties of social relationship from an objective view, in this paper, we focus on individuals' subjective and asymmetric opinions on their interrelationships. Inspired by the theories from sociolinguistics, we investigate two individuals' opinions on their interrelationship with their interactive language features. Eliminating the difference of personal language style, we clarify that the asymmetry of interactive language feature values can indicate individuals' asymmetric opinions on their interrelationship. We also discuss how the degree of opinions' asymmetry is r…
We introduce and discuss kinetic models of opinion formation on social networks in which the distribution function depends on both the opinion and the connectivity of the agents. The opinion formation model is subsequently coupled with a kinetic model describing the spreading of popularity of a product on the web through a social network. Numerical experiments on the underlying kinetic models show a good qualitative agreement with some measured trends of hashtags on social media websites and illustrate how companies can take advantage of the network structure to obtain at best the advertisemen…
Though current researches often study the properties of online social relationship from an objective view, we also need to understand individuals' subjective opinions on their interrelationships in social computing studies. Inspired by the theories from sociolinguistics, the latest work indicates that interactive language can reveal individuals' asymmetric opinions on their interrelationship. In this work, in order to explain the opinions' asymmetry on interrelationship with more latent factors, we extend the investigation from single relationship to the structural context in online social net…
In this paper, we present an empirical study of the opinion dynamics of a large-scale sample of online social network users. We estimate opinions of users as continuous scalars based on their subscriptions to information sources and analyze how friendship connections affect the dynamics of these estimations. Distinguishing between positive (toward opinions of friends) and negative (away from opinions of friends) opinion shifts, we find that the existence and magnitude of opinion shifts are positively related (largely through a linear form or an inverted U-shaped form) to the degree of divergen…
Recent years saw an increased interest in modeling and understanding the mechanisms of opinion and innovation spread through human networks. Using analysis of real-world social data, researchers are able to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of social networks and subsequently model the changes in such networks over time. We developed a social network model that both utilizes an agent-based approach with a dynamic update of opinions and connections between agents and reflects opinion propagation and structural changes over time as observed in real-world data. We validate the model usi…
Opinions are an integral part of how we perceive the world and each other. They shape collective action, playing a role in democratic processes, the evolution of norms, and cultural change. For decades, researchers in the social and natural sciences have tried to describe how shifting individual perspectives and social exchange lead to archetypal states of public opinion like consensus and polarization. Here we review some of the many contributions to the field, focusing both on idealized models of opinion dynamics, and attempts at validating them with observational data and controlled sociolo…
There are some shreds of evidence that social opinion polarization leads to the breakup of the relationship, some in the scale of small communities, but others can divide large organizations or even a nation. The legacy methodology to answer the root cause of opinion polarization in the society commonly use random sampling or questionnaire-based approach, which considered expensive in term of time and money. On the contrary, the opportunity to employ big data approach using social media data provides a rich source to investigate several questions, such as: how social opinion polarization forme…
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the beliefs dynamics and capture the interdependence of opinions on different subjects. In this paper we tackle this issue also accounting for the individual endogenous process of opinion evolution, as well as repulsive interactions between individuals' opinions that may arise in the presence of an adversarial attitude of the individuals. Using a mean field approac…
This paper aims to provide a systemic analysis to social opinion dynamics subject to individual biases. As a generalization of the classical DeGroot social interactions, defined by linearly coupled dynamics of peer opinions that evolve over time, biases add to state-dependent edge weights and therefore lead to highly nonlinear network dynamics. Previous studies have dealt with convergence and stability analysis of such systems for a few specific initial node opinions and network structures, and here we focus on how individual biases affect social equilibria and their stabilities. First of all,…
NTT Human Informatics Labs（NTT人类信息学实验室）；NTT Communication Science Labs（NTT通信科学实验室）
Opinion formation and propagation are crucial phenomena in social networks and have been extensively studied across several disciplines. Traditionally, theoretical models of opinion dynamics have been proposed to describe the interactions between individuals (i.e., social interaction) and their impact on the evolution of collective opinions. Although these models can incorporate sociological and psychological knowledge on the mechanisms of social interaction, they demand extensive calibration with real data to make reliable predictions, requiring much time and effort. Recently, the widespread …
The dissemination of information and the development of public opinion are essential elements of most social media platforms and are often described as distinct, man-made occurrences. However, what is often disregarded is the interdependence between these two phenomena. Information dissemination serves as the foundation for the formation of public opinion, while public opinion, in turn, drives the spread of information. In our study, we model the co-evolutionary relationship between information and public opinion on heterogeneous multiplex networks. This model takes into account a minority of …
We proposed a new model, which capture the main difference between information and opinion spreading. In information spreading additional exposure to certain information has a small effect. Contrary, when an actor is exposed to 2 opinioned actors the probability to adopt the opinion is significant higher than in the case of contact with one such actor (called by J. Kleinberg "the 0-1-2 effect"). In each time step if an actor does not have an opinion, we randomly choose 2 his network neighbors. If one of them has an opinion, the actor adopts opinion with some low probability, if two - with a hi…
Opinion formation in complex social networks may exhibit complex system dynamics even when based on some simplest system evolution models. An interesting and important issue is the effects of the initial state on the final steady-state opinion distribution. We show that, while different initial opinion distributions certainly make differences to opinion evolution in social systems without noises, in systems with noises, given enough time, different initial states basically do not contribute to making any significant differences in the final steady state. Instead, it is the basal distribution o…
In this work, we are interested in finding the most efficient use of a budget to promote an opinion by paying agents within a group to supplant their true opinions. We model opinions as continuous scalars ranging from 0 to 1 with 1 (0) representing extremely positive (negative) opinion. We focus on asymmetric confidence between agents. The iterative update of an agent corresponds to the best response to other agents' actions. The resulting confidence matrix can be seen as an equivalent Markov chain. We provide simple and efficient algorithms to solve this problem and we show through an example…
Our opinions, which things we like or dislike, depend on the opinions of those around us. Nowadays, we are influenced by the opinions of online strangers, expressed in comments and ratings on online platforms. Here, we perform novel "academic A/B testing" experiments with over 2,500 participants to measure the extent of that influence. In our experiments, the participants watch and evaluate videos on mirror proxies of YouTube and Vimeo. We control the comments and ratings that are shown underneath each of these videos. Our study shows that from 5$\%$ up to 40$\%$ of subjects adopt the majority…
Public opinion polling is usually done by random sampling from the entire population, treating individual opinions as independent. In the real world, individuals' opinions are often correlated, e.g., among friends in a social network. In this paper, we explore the idea of partitioned sampling, which partitions individuals with high opinion similarities into groups and then samples every group separately to obtain an accurate estimate of the population opinion. We rigorously formulate the above idea as an optimization problem. We then show that the simple partitions which contain only one sampl…
K. N. Toosi University of Technology（K. N. 托西理工大学）
The understanding of how users in a network update their opinions based on their neighbours opinions has attracted a great deal of interest in the field of network science, and a growing body of literature recognises the significance of this issue. In this research paper, we propose a new dynamic model of opinion formation in directed networks. In this model, the opinion of each node is updated as the weighted average of its neighbours opinions, where the weights represent social influence. We define a new centrality measure as a social influence metric based on both influence and conformity. …
Trends in online social media always reflect the collective attention of a vast number of individuals across the network. For example, Internet slang words can be ubiquitous because of social memes and online contagions in an extremely short period. From Weibo, a Twitter-like service in China, we find that the adoption of popular Internet slang words experiences two peaks in its temporal evolution, in which the former is relatively much lower than the latter. This interesting phenomenon in fact provides a decent window to disclose essential factors that drive the massive diffusion underlying t…
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users over time, can we tell when the network "behaved" abnormally? Furthermore, can we predict how the opinions of the users will change in the future? Do opinions evolve according to existing network opinion dynamics models? To answer such questions, it is not sufficient to study indivi…
Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specif…
The process by which new ideas, innovations, and behaviors spread through a large social network can be thought of as a networked interaction game: Each agent obtains information from certain number of agents in his friendship neighborhood, and adapts his idea or behavior to increase his benefit. In this paper, we are interested in how opinions, about a certain topic, form in social networks. We model opinions as continuous scalars ranging from 0 to 1 with 1(0) representing extremely positive(negative) opinion. Each agent has an initial opinion and incurs some cost depending on the opinions of…
Big Data dealing with the social produce predictive correlations for the benefit of brands and web platforms. Beyond "society" and "opinion" for which the text lays out a genealogy, appear the "traces" that must be theorized as "replications" by the social sciences in order to reap the benefits of the uncertain status of entities' widespread traceability. High frequency replications as a collective phenomenon did exist before the digital networks emergence but now they leave traces that can be computed. The third generation of Social Sciences currently emerging must assume the specific nature …
Stance detection, which aims to determine whether an individual is for or against a target concept, promises to uncover public opinion from large streams of social media data. Yet even human annotation of social media content does not always capture "stance" as measured by public opinion polls. We demonstrate this by directly comparing an individual's self-reported stance to the stance inferred from their social media data. Leveraging a longitudinal public opinion survey with respondent Twitter handles, we conducted this comparison for 1,129 individuals across four salient targets. We find tha…
Taking a pragmatic approach to the processes involved in the phenomena of collective opinion formation, we investigate two specific modifications to the co-evolving network voter model of opinion formation, studied by Holme and Newman [1]. First, we replace the rewiring probability parameter by a distribution of probability of accepting or rejecting opinions between individuals, accounting for the asymmetric influences in relationships among individuals in a social group. Second, we modify the rewiring step by a path-length-based preference for rewiring that reinforces local clustering. We hav…
Information-communication technology promotes collaborative environments like Wikipedia where, however, controversiality and conflicts can appear. To describe the rise, persistence, and resolution of such conflicts we devise an extended opinion dynamics model where agents with different opinions perform a single task to make a consensual product. As a function of the convergence parameter describing the influence of the product on the agents, the model shows spontaneous symmetry breaking of the final consensus opinion represented by the medium. In the case when agents are replaced with new one…
Online reviews are potent sources for industry owners and buyers, however opportunistic people may try to destruct or promote their desired product by publishing fake comments named spam opinion. So far, many models have been developed to detect spam opinions, but none have addressed the issue of spam attack. It is a way a smart spammer can deceive the system in a manner in which he can continue generating spams without the fear of being detected and blocked by the system. In this paper, the spam attacks are discussed. Moreover, a robust graph-based spam detection method is proposed. The metho…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This raises the question of how individual opinions evolve in such a networked environment without grounding in a known reality. The dominant approach to studying this problem uses simple models from the social sciences on how individuals change their opinions when exposed to their social neighborhood, and applies them on large social networks. We propose a novel mod…
