In this paper, we present an empirical study of the opinion dynamics of a large-scale sample of online social network users. We estimate opinions of users as continuous scalars based on their subscriptions to information sources and analyze how friendship connections affect the dynamics of these estimations. Distinguishing between positive (toward opinions of friends) and negative (away from opinions of friends) opinion shifts, we find that the existence and magnitude of opinion shifts are positively related (largely through a linear form or an inverted U-shaped form) to the degree of divergence in opinions between user and their friends. Additionally, we moderate the balance between positive and negative shifts using opinion divergence: if the opinions of the focal user and their friends are too similar or dissimilar, there is a relatively low chance of a positive shift.
We introduce an agent-based model for co-evolving opinion and social dynamics, under the influence of multiplicative noise. In this model, every agent is characterized by a position in a social space and a continuous opinion state variable. Agents' movements are governed by positions and opinions of other agents and similarly, the opinion dynamics is influenced by agents' spatial proximity and their opinion similarity. Using numerical simulations and formal analysis, we study this feedback loop between opinion dynamics and mobility of agents in a social space. We investigate the behavior of th…
Passive consumption of a quantifiable amount of social media information related to a topic can cause individuals to form opinions. If a substantial amount of these individuals are motivated to take action from their recently established opinions, a movement or public opinion shift can be induced independent of the information's veracity. Given that social media is ubiquitous in modern society, it is imperative that we understand the threshold at which social media data results in opinion formation. The present study estimates population opinion formation thresholds by querying 2222 participan…
We introduce a new opinion dynamics model where a group of agents holds two kinds of opinions: inherent and declared. Each agent's inherent opinion is fixed and unobservable by the other agents. At each time step, agents broadcast their declared opinions on a social network, which are governed by the agents' inherent opinions and social pressure. In particular, we assume that agents may declare opinions that are not aligned with their inherent opinions to conform with their neighbors. This raises the natural question: Can we estimate the agents' inherent opinions from observations of declared …
Social media platforms have emerged as a hub for political and social interactions, and analyzing the polarization of opinions has been gaining attention. In this study, we have proposed a measure to quantify polarization on social networks. The proposed metric, unlike state-of-the-art methods, does not assume a two-opinion case and applies to multiple opinions. We tested our metric on different networks with a multi-opinion scenario and varying degrees of polarization. The scores obtained from the proposed metric were comparable to state-of-the-art methods on binary opinion-based benchmark ne…
Individuals modify their opinions towards a topic based on their social interactions. Opinion evolution models conceptualize the change of opinion as a uni-dimensional continuum, and the effect of influence is built by the group size, the network structures, or the relations among opinions within the group. However, how to model the personal opinion evolution process under the effect of the online social influence as a function remains unclear. Here, we show that the uni-dimensional continuous user opinions can be represented by compressed high-dimensional word embeddings, and its evolution ca…
In this paper, we study the evolution of opinions over social networks with bounded confidence in social cliques. Node initial opinions are independently and identically distributed; at each time step, nodes review the average opinions of a randomly selected local clique. The clique averages may represent local group pressures on peers. Then nodes update their opinions under bounded confidence: only when the difference between an agent individual opinion and the corresponding local clique pressure is below a threshold, this agent opinion is updated according to the DeGroot rule as a weighted a…
The process of opinion formation through synthesis and contrast of different viewpoints has been the subject of many studies in economics and social sciences. Today, this process manifests itself also in online social networks and social media. The key characteristic of successful promotion campaigns is that they take into consideration such opinion-formation dynamics in order to create a overall favorable opinion about a specific information item, such as a person, a product, or an idea. In this paper, we adopt a well-established model for social-opinion dynamics and formalize the campaign-de…
There are some shreds of evidence that social opinion polarization leads to the breakup of the relationship, some in the scale of small communities, but others can divide large organizations or even a nation. The legacy methodology to answer the root cause of opinion polarization in the society commonly use random sampling or questionnaire-based approach, which considered expensive in term of time and money. On the contrary, the opportunity to employ big data approach using social media data provides a rich source to investigate several questions, such as: how social opinion polarization forme…
Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allow…
Most previous works on opinion modeling lack the simultaneous study of individual mental activity and group behavior. This paper is motivated to propose an agent-based online opinion formation model based on attitude change theory, group behavior theory and evolutionary game theory in the perspective of sociology and psychology. In this model, there are three factors influencing the persuasion process, including credibility of the leaders, characteristic of the recipient, and group environment. The proposed model is applied to Twitter to analyze the influence of topic type, parameter changing,…
This paper aims to provide a systemic analysis to social opinion dynamics subject to individual biases. As a generalization of the classical DeGroot social interactions, defined by linearly coupled dynamics of peer opinions that evolve over time, biases add to state-dependent edge weights and therefore lead to highly nonlinear network dynamics. Previous studies have dealt with convergence and stability analysis of such systems for a few specific initial node opinions and network structures, and here we focus on how individual biases affect social equilibria and their stabilities. First of all,…
This paper proposes a network model of opinion dynamics based on both the social network structure and network centralities. The conceptual novelty in this model is that the opinion of each individual is weighted by the associated network centrality in characterizing the opinion spread on social networks. Following a degree-centrality-weighted opinion dynamics model, we provide an algorithm to partition nodes of any graph into two and multiple clusters based on opinion disagreements. Furthermore, the partition algorithm is applied to real-world social networks including the Zachary karate club…
Instead of studying the properties of social relationship from an objective view, in this paper, we focus on individuals' subjective and asymmetric opinions on their interrelationships. Inspired by the theories from sociolinguistics, we investigate two individuals' opinions on their interrelationship with their interactive language features. Eliminating the difference of personal language style, we clarify that the asymmetry of interactive language feature values can indicate individuals' asymmetric opinions on their interrelationship. We also discuss how the degree of opinions' asymmetry is r…
The heterogeneity of the influence processes is an important feature of social systems: how we perceive social influence and how we influence other individuals is heavily influenced by our opinion and non-opinion attributes. The latter include demographic, cultural, and structural (how we are embedded in social networks) characteristics. Furthermore, the results of the influence processes may also depend on how similar the interacting individuals are in terms of their features. This paper addresses this issue and elaborates on an agent-based model that is sensitive to the individual characteri…
Though current researches often study the properties of online social relationship from an objective view, we also need to understand individuals' subjective opinions on their interrelationships in social computing studies. Inspired by the theories from sociolinguistics, the latest work indicates that interactive language can reveal individuals' asymmetric opinions on their interrelationship. In this work, in order to explain the opinions' asymmetry on interrelationship with more latent factors, we extend the investigation from single relationship to the structural context in online social net…
Recent years saw an increased interest in modeling and understanding the mechanisms of opinion and innovation spread through human networks. Using analysis of real-world social data, researchers are able to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of social networks and subsequently model the changes in such networks over time. We developed a social network model that both utilizes an agent-based approach with a dynamic update of opinions and connections between agents and reflects opinion propagation and structural changes over time as observed in real-world data. We validate the model usi…
We introduce and discuss kinetic models of opinion formation on social networks in which the distribution function depends on both the opinion and the connectivity of the agents. The opinion formation model is subsequently coupled with a kinetic model describing the spreading of popularity of a product on the web through a social network. Numerical experiments on the underlying kinetic models show a good qualitative agreement with some measured trends of hashtags on social media websites and illustrate how companies can take advantage of the network structure to obtain at best the advertisemen…
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the beliefs dynamics and capture the interdependence of opinions on different subjects. In this paper we tackle this issue also accounting for the individual endogenous process of opinion evolution, as well as repulsive interactions between individuals' opinions that may arise in the presence of an adversarial attitude of the individuals. Using a mean field approac…
The dissemination of information and the development of public opinion are essential elements of most social media platforms and are often described as distinct, man-made occurrences. However, what is often disregarded is the interdependence between these two phenomena. Information dissemination serves as the foundation for the formation of public opinion, while public opinion, in turn, drives the spread of information. In our study, we model the co-evolutionary relationship between information and public opinion on heterogeneous multiplex networks. This model takes into account a minority of …
Big Data dealing with the social produce predictive correlations for the benefit of brands and web platforms. Beyond "society" and "opinion" for which the text lays out a genealogy, appear the "traces" that must be theorized as "replications" by the social sciences in order to reap the benefits of the uncertain status of entities' widespread traceability. High frequency replications as a collective phenomenon did exist before the digital networks emergence but now they leave traces that can be computed. The third generation of Social Sciences currently emerging must assume the specific nature …
Stance detection, which aims to determine whether an individual is for or against a target concept, promises to uncover public opinion from large streams of social media data. Yet even human annotation of social media content does not always capture "stance" as measured by public opinion polls. We demonstrate this by directly comparing an individual's self-reported stance to the stance inferred from their social media data. Leveraging a longitudinal public opinion survey with respondent Twitter handles, we conducted this comparison for 1,129 individuals across four salient targets. We find tha…
The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This raises the question of how individual opinions evolve in such a networked environment without grounding in a known reality. The dominant approach to studying this problem uses simple models from the social sciences on how individuals change their opinions when exposed to their social neighborhood, and applies them on large social networks. We propose a novel mod…
We proposed a new model, which capture the main difference between information and opinion spreading. In information spreading additional exposure to certain information has a small effect. Contrary, when an actor is exposed to 2 opinioned actors the probability to adopt the opinion is significant higher than in the case of contact with one such actor (called by J. Kleinberg "the 0-1-2 effect"). In each time step if an actor does not have an opinion, we randomly choose 2 his network neighbors. If one of them has an opinion, the actor adopts opinion with some low probability, if two - with a hi…
Opinion formation in complex social networks may exhibit complex system dynamics even when based on some simplest system evolution models. An interesting and important issue is the effects of the initial state on the final steady-state opinion distribution. We show that, while different initial opinion distributions certainly make differences to opinion evolution in social systems without noises, in systems with noises, given enough time, different initial states basically do not contribute to making any significant differences in the final steady state. Instead, it is the basal distribution o…
In this work, we are interested in finding the most efficient use of a budget to promote an opinion by paying agents within a group to supplant their true opinions. We model opinions as continuous scalars ranging from 0 to 1 with 1 (0) representing extremely positive (negative) opinion. We focus on asymmetric confidence between agents. The iterative update of an agent corresponds to the best response to other agents' actions. The resulting confidence matrix can be seen as an equivalent Markov chain. We provide simple and efficient algorithms to solve this problem and we show through an example…
The focus of this paper is modeling what we call a Social Radar, i.e. a method to estimate the relative influence between social agents, by sampling their opinions and as they evolve, after injecting in the network stubborn agents. The stubborn agents opinion is not influenced by the peers they seek to sway, and their opinion bias is the known input to the social network system. The novelty is in the model presented to probe a social network and the solution of the associated regression problem. The model allows to map the observed opinion onto system equations that can be used to infer the so…
Among different aspects of social networks, dynamics have been proposed to simulate how opinions can be transmitted. In this study, we propose a model that simulates the communication in an online social network, in which the posts are created from external information. We considered the nodes and edges of a network as users and their friendship, respectively. A real number is associated with each user representing its opinion. The dynamics starts with a user that has contact with a random opinion, and, according to a given probability function, this individual can post this opinion. This step…
Online social networks provide a medium for citizens to form opinions on different societal issues, and a forum for public discussion. They also expose users to viral content, such as breaking news articles. In this paper, we study the interplay between these two aspects: opinion formation and information cascades in online social networks. We present a new model that allows us to quantify how users change their opinion as they are exposed to viral content. Our model is a combination of the popular Friedkin--Johnsen model for opinion dynamics and the independent cascade model for information p…
K. N. Toosi University of Technology（K. N. 托西理工大学）
The understanding of how users in a network update their opinions based on their neighbours opinions has attracted a great deal of interest in the field of network science, and a growing body of literature recognises the significance of this issue. In this research paper, we propose a new dynamic model of opinion formation in directed networks. In this model, the opinion of each node is updated as the weighted average of its neighbours opinions, where the weights represent social influence. We define a new centrality measure as a social influence metric based on both influence and conformity. …
Behavior and Sublinear Algorithm for Opinion Disagreement on Noisy Social Networks
College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Fudan University（复旦大学计算机科学与人工智能学院）；Shanghai Key Laboratory of Brain-Machine Intelligence for Information Behavior（上海信息行为脑机智能重点实验室）；School of Business and Management, Shanghai International Studies University（上海外国语大学商学院）
The current development of vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 is unprecedented. Little is known, however, about the nuanced public opinions on the vaccines on social media. We adopt a human-guided machine learning framework using more than six million tweets from almost two million unique Twitter users to capture public opinions on the potential vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, classifying them into three groups: pro-vaccine, vaccine-hesitant, and anti-vaccine. We aggregate opinions at the state and country levels, and find that the major changes in the percentages of different opinion groups roughly correspond …
Opinion leaders are ubiquitous in both online and offline social networks, but the impacts of opinion leaders on social behavior contagions are still not fully understood, especially by using a mathematical model. Here we generalize the classical Watts threshold model and address the influences of the opinion leaders, where an individual adopts a new behavior if one of his/her opinion leaders adopts the behavior. First, we choose the opinion leaders randomly from all individuals in the network and find the impacts of opinion leaders make other individuals adopt the behavior more easily. Specif…
The process by which new ideas, innovations, and behaviors spread through a large social network can be thought of as a networked interaction game: Each agent obtains information from certain number of agents in his friendship neighborhood, and adapts his idea or behavior to increase his benefit. In this paper, we are interested in how opinions, about a certain topic, form in social networks. We model opinions as continuous scalars ranging from 0 to 1 with 1(0) representing extremely positive(negative) opinion. Each agent has an initial opinion and incurs some cost depending on the opinions of…
Public opinion polling is usually done by random sampling from the entire population, treating individual opinions as independent. In the real world, individuals' opinions are often correlated, e.g., among friends in a social network. In this paper, we explore the idea of partitioned sampling, which partitions individuals with high opinion similarities into groups and then samples every group separately to obtain an accurate estimate of the population opinion. We rigorously formulate the above idea as an optimization problem. We then show that the simple partitions which contain only one sampl…
Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes…
Taking a pragmatic approach to the processes involved in the phenomena of collective opinion formation, we investigate two specific modifications to the co-evolving network voter model of opinion formation, studied by Holme and Newman [1]. First, we replace the rewiring probability parameter by a distribution of probability of accepting or rejecting opinions between individuals, accounting for the asymmetric influences in relationships among individuals in a social group. Second, we modify the rewiring step by a path-length-based preference for rewiring that reinforces local clustering. We hav…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic reminded us how vaccination can be a divisive topic on which the public conversation is permeated by misleading claims, and thoughts tend to polarize, especially on online social networks. In this work, motivated by recent natural language processing techniques to systematically extract and quantify opinions from text messages, we present a differential framework for bivariate opinion formation dynamics that is coupled with a compartmental model for fake news dissemination. Thanks to a mean-field analysis we demonstrate that the resulting Fokker-Planck system permits to…
Motivated by the literature on opinion dynamics and evolutionary game theory, we propose a novel mathematical framework to model the intertwined coevolution of opinions and decision-making in a complex social system. In the proposed framework, the members of a social community update their opinions and revise their actions as they learn of others' opinions shared on a communication channel, and observe of others' actions through an influence channel; these interactions determine a two-layer network structure. We offer an application of the proposed framework by tailoring it to study the adopti…
Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学科学研究所）
We explore a new mechanism to explain polarization phenomena in opinion dynamics in which agents evaluate alternative views on the basis of the social feedback obtained on expressing them. High support of the favored opinion in the social environment, is treated as a positive feedback which reinforces the value associated to this opinion. In connected networks of sufficiently high modularity, different groups of agents can form strong convictions of competing opinions. Linking the social feedback process to standard equilibrium concepts we analytically characterize sufficient conditions for th…
Empirical studies are inconclusive about the underlying mechanisms that shape the interrelated dynamics of opinions and interpersonal attraction. There is strong evidence that others whom are liked have a positive influence on opinions and similarities induce attraction (homophily). We know less about "negative" mechanisms concerning whether disliked others induce shifts away from consensus (negative influence), whether large differences (dissimilarity) generate distancing, and whether dissimilarities induce disliking (heterophobia). This study tests discriminating hypotheses about the presenc…
Nowadays, internet has changed the world into a global village. Social Media has reduced the gaps among the individuals. Previously communication was a time consuming and expensive task between the people. Social Media has earned fame because it is a cheaper and faster communication provider. Besides, social media has allowed us to reduce the gaps of physical distance, it also generates and preserves huge amount of data. The data are very valuable and it presents association degree between people and their opinions. The comprehensive analysis of the methods which are used on user behavior pred…
