We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are based on a highly idealized initial stress distribution and a simple velocity-dependent expression for friction. The full scope of the model has, therefore, not been fully demonstrated. Further developments, presented here, include more physically realistic treatments of both the initial conditions and friction. Model predictions are: (1) The type of a seismic event, i.e. regular EQ or SSE, is determined by the fault strength, the shear to normal stress ratio, and the gradient in the ratio. Quantitative values for these crucial parameters are also obtained here; (2) Rupture velocities for regular EQs range from a fraction of the shear wave velocity up to the supershear velocity. The maximum slip velocity for regular EQs is typically on the order of 1 m/s. For SSEs, the slip velocity ranges widely from a few cm/year up to 0.1 m/s. The magnitude of the stress drop may vary in the range from 1% to 10% of the initial shear stress for regular EQs and from 0.1% to 10% for the SSEs; (3) The rupture can expend as a crack-like mode or as a self-healing pulse mode. The type of rupture mode is determined by the stress ratio and its gradient. If stress heterogeneity has a step-like shape, the rupture is always crack-like. If the heterogeneity is localized, the rupture is crack-like for sufficiently large values of the stress and its gradient and is pulse-like for smaller values; (4) After an instability develops, rupture dynamics do not depend on the relative values of the rate-state a and b parameters, i.e., it does not matter if frictional sliding is velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening. Models based on the rate-state are not consistent with this result.
The burgeoning need to sequester anthropogenic CO$_2$ for climate mitigation and the need for energy sustenance leading upto enhanced geothermal energy production has made it incredibly critical to study potential earthquakes due to fluid activity in the subsurface. These earthquakes result from reactivation of faults in the subsurface due to pore pressure perturbations. In this work, we provide a framework to model fault slip due to pore pressure change leading upto quantifying the earthquake magnitude.
Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained. Here, we report on stick-slip experiments (laboratory earthquakes) conducted under seismogenic stresses in dry and fluid pressure conditions. We show that the precursory moment release scales with mainshock magnitude irrespective of the slip behavior (seismic or aseismic), the presence of fluid and the fault's slip history. Importantly, this observation is …
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic slip radiating seismic waves (i.e. earthquakes) or slow, silent slip (i.e. SSEs) is a fundamental point in the estimation of seismic hazard along subduction zones. On top of showing slower rupture propagation velocity than earthquakes, SSEs exhibit different scaling relationships, which could reflect either different physical mechanisms or an intriguing lack of…
Slow-slip phenomena, including afterslips and silent earthquakes, are studied using a one-dimensional Burridge--Knopoff model that obeys the rate-and-state dependent friction law. By varying only a few model parameters, this simple model allows reproducing a variety of seismic slips within a single framework, including main shocks, precursory nucleation processes, afterslips, and silent earthquakes.
In subduction zones, seismic slip at shallow crustal depths can lead to the generation of tsunamis. Large slip displacements during tsunamogenic earthquakes are attributed to the low coseismic shear strength of the fluid-saturated and non-lithified clay-rich fault rocks. However, because of experimental challenges in confining these materials, the physical processes responsible of the coseismic reduction in fault shear strength are poorly understood. Using a novel experimental setup, we measured pore fluid pressure during simulated seismic slip in clay-rich materials sampled from the deep ocea…
This paper has evolved out of our previous work on static stress transfer, where we used the full-space elastostatic Green's tensor to compute the Coulomb stress transfer impact of the Landers earthquake on the Hector Mine event. In this work, we use the elastostatic Green's tensor for an arbitrary layered Earth model with free-surface boundary conditions to study the impact of elastic heterogeneity as well as source-fault slip and geometry on the stress transfer mechanism. Slip distribution and fault geometry of the source have a significant impact on the stress transfer, especially in case o…
Frictional heat during earthquake rupture raises the pressure of fault zone fluids and affects the rupture process and its seismic radiation. Here, we investigate the role of two key parameters governing thermal-pressurization of pore fluids -- hydraulic diffusivity and shear-zone half-width -- on earthquake rupture dynamics, kinematic source properties and ground-motions. We conduct 3D strike-slip dynamic rupture simulations assuming a rate-and-state dependent friction law with strong velocity-weakening coupled to thermal-pressurization of pore fluids. Dynamic rupture evolution and ground-sha…
Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed enough to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi-continuous tremor…
Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault per…
We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data processing results from early post-seismic deformation. We also show 1) that if located very close to the rupture, a GPS receiver can saturate while it remains possible to estimate the ground velocity (~1.2 m/s) near the fault, 2) that GPS waveforms inversions constrain that the slip distribution at depth even when GPS monuments are not located directly above…
Fluid pressure and flow in the crust is a key parameter controlling earthquake physics. Since earthquake slip is linked to spatio-temporal localisation of deformation, it is expected that the localised fluid pressure around the fault plane could potentially impact the dynamic strength of the slipping fault zone. Coseismic fluid pressure drops have been inferred from field studies, notably in gold deposits which are thought to be formed by this process, but reliable quantitative predictions are still lacking. Here, experimental results are presented where local on- and off-fault fluid pressure …
Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before the mainshock, it is dramatically suppressed in a close vicinity of the epicenter of the upcoming mainshock, a phenomenon closely resembling the ``Mogi doughnut''
A fundamental mystery in earthquake physics is ``how can an earthquake be triggered by distant seismic sources?'' Here, we use discrete element method simulations of a granular layer, during stick-slip, that is subject to transient vibrational excitation to gain further insight into the physics of dynamic earthquake triggering. Using Coulomb friction law for grains interaction, we observe delayed triggering of slip in the granular gouge. We find that at a critical vibrational amplitude (strain) there is an abrupt transition from negligible time-advanced slip (clock advance) to full clock advan…
Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs). Slow slip has been reproduced in laboratory and simulation studies, however the fundamental physics of these phenomena and their relationship to dynamic earthquake rupture remains poorly understood. Here we show that, in a laboratory setting, continuous seismic waves are imprinted with fundamental signatures of the fault's phys…
Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns …
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
Pulse-like ruptures arise spontaneously in many elastodynamic rupture simulations and seem to be the dominant rupture mode along crustal faults. Pulse-like ruptures propagating under steady-state conditions can be efficiently analysed theoretically, but it remains unclear how they can arise and how they evolve if perturbed. Using thermal pressurisation as a representative constitutive law, we conduct elastodynamic simulations of pulse-like ruptures and determine the spatio-temporal evolution of slip, slip rate and pulse width perturbations induced by infinitesimal perturbations in background s…
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
The Carlson-Langer model is a deterministic model of earthquakes. There were many investigations of this model, but its complicated spatio-temporal dynamics is not yet completely understood. We again study the model equation numerically, and obtain two new results. Firstly, we try to understand the complicated dynamics from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal intermittency. We study the intermittent dynamics of a two-block system using a one-dimensional map, which is useful for understanding an intermittent spatio-temporal chaos in larger systems. Large slips occur intermittently after repeated s…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate characteristics of earthquakes (EQs) and slow slip events (SSEs) that are only apparent in a second dimension. We find that the leading edge of an EQ rupture in the direction of the global shear stress (x-direction) is wider in the plane of the crustal fault (y-direction) than the trailing edge. The direction of the slip velocity is primarily in the x-direction. EQ…
A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of shear strength on fault rheology, sliding velocity, and pore-fluid pressure. In this study, we present H-MEC (Hydro-Mechanical Earthquake Cycles), a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical code - which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow - to simulate how crustal stress and fluid pressure evolve during the earthquake cycle on a fluid-bearing fault structure. This unified, continuum-based model, incorporates a staggered finite difference-marker-in-cell (SF…
Continuous GPS and broadband seismic monitoring have revealed a variety of disparate slip patterns especially in shallow dipping subduction zones, among which regular earthquakes, slow slip events and silent quakes1,2. Slow slip events are sometimes accompanied by Non Volcanic Tremors (NVT), which origin remains unclear3, either related to fluid migration or to friction. The present understanding of the whole menagerie of slip patterns is based upon numerical simulations imposing ad hoc values of the rate and state parameters a and b4-6 derived from the temperature dependence of a and b of a w…
Cross-sphere Coupling and Source Inversion of Ionospheric Disturbances Associated with the 2025 Myanmar Strike-slip Earthquake from BeiDou GEO and Multi-GNSS Observations
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip fashion. Previous observations by us include a bounded critical state with a power law distribution of event energy consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law, here we also reveal stair-case seismicity, clustering, foreshocks, aftershocks and seismic quiescence. Subcritical and supercritical regimes have also been observed by us depending on the system configur…
In the quest to determine fault weakening processes that govern earthquake mechanics, it is common to infer the earthquake breakdown energy from seismological measurements. Breakdown energy is observed to scale with slip, which is often attributed to enhanced fault weakening with continued slip or at high slip rates, possibly caused by flash heating and thermal pressurization. However, breakdown energy varies by more than six orders of magnitude, which is physically irreconcilable with prevailing material properties. We present a dynamic model that demonstrates that breakdown energy scaling ca…
The onset of rapid slip along initially quiescent frictional interfaces, the process of `earthquake nucleation', and dissipative spatiotemporal slippage dynamics play important roles in a broad range of physical systems. Here we first show that interfaces described by generic friction laws feature stress-dependent steady-state slip pulse solutions, which are unstable in the quasi-1D approximation of thin elastic bodies. We propose that such unstable slip pulses of linear size $L^*$ and characteristic amplitude are `critical nuclei' for rapid slip in a non-equilibrium analogy to equilibrium fir…
During the eruption of the Kizimen volcano in 2010-2013. There was a uniform squeezing of the viscous lava flow. Simultaneously with its movement, earthquakes with an unusual quasi-periodicity were recorded, the "drumbeats" mode. In this work, we show that these earthquakes were generated by the movement of the flow front, which was observed for the first time in the practice of volcanological research. We represent the movement of the flow as an intermittent slip with the inclusion of the "stick-slip" mechanism with the initiation of a self-oscillating process. The plausibility of the phenome…
We study the spatial distribution of clusters associated to the aftershocks of the megathrust Maule earthquake MW 8.8 of 27 February 2010. We used a recent clustering method which hinges on a nonparametric estimation of the underlying probability density function to detect subsets of points forming clusters associated with high density areas. In addition, we estimate the probability density function using a nonparametric kernel method for each of these clusters. This allows us to identify a set of regions where there is an association between frequency of events and coseismic slip. Our results…
Tectonic faults slip in various manners, ranging from ordinary earthquakes to slow slip events to aseismic fault creep. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes and their sensitivity to stress make them a promising probe of the neighboring locked zone where megaquakes take place. This relationship, however, remains poorly understood. We show that the Cascadia megathrust is continuously broadcasting a tremor-like signal that precisely informs of fault displacement rate throughout the slow slip cycle. We posit that this signal provides indirect, real-time access to physical properties of the …
Coulomb-stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes, and places with positive increases are brought closer to failure. Earthquake models that relate earthquake rates and Coulomb stress after a main event, such as the rate-and-state model, assume that the magnitude distribution of earthquakes is not affected by the change in the Coulomb stress. By using different slip models, we calculate the change in Coulomb stress in the fault plane for every aftershock after the Landers event (C…
We study experimentally the fluctuations of deformation along a shear fault naturally emerging within a compressed frictional granular medium. Using laser interferometry, we show that the deformation inside this granular gouge occurs as a succession of localized micro-slips distributed along the fault. The associated distributions of released seismic moments, the memory effects in strain fluctuations, as well as the time correlations between successive events, follow exactly the empirical laws of natural earthquakes. Using a methodology initially developed in seismology and social science, we …
Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes ($M_w>7$), slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries. These slip transients are the slow release of built-up tectonic stress that are geodetically imaged as a predominantly aseismic rupture, which is smooth in both time and space. We demonstrate here that large slow slip events are in fact a cluster of short-duration slow transients. Using a dense catalog of low-frequency earthquakes as a guide, we investigate the $M_w7.5$ slow slip event that occurred in 2006 along the subducti…
Quantifying the Role of 3D Fault Geometry Complexities on Slow and Fast Earthquakes
Laboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Superieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院地质实验室）；Geo-Energy Lab - Gaznat Chair on Geo-Energy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, EPFL-ENAC-IIC-GEL（洛桑联邦理工学院能源地质实验室）；Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院地质与行星科学系）
In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state solution of the derived Langevin equation analytically attains the truncated exponential (TEX) distribution that is empirically characterized in many rupture models of earthquake events worldwide, as demonstrated by Thingbaijam and Mai (2016, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150291). Our proposed stochastic dynamic faulting model for earthquake rupture intrinsically in…
Earthquakes cause lasting changes in static equilibrium, resulting in global deformation fields that can be observed. Consequently, deformation measurements such as those provided by satellite based InSAR monitoring can be used to infer an earthquake's faulting mechanism. This inverse problem requires a numerical forward model that is both accurate and fast, as typical inverse procedures require many evaluations. The Weakly-enforced Slip Method (WSM) was developed to meet these needs, but it was not before applied in an inverse problem setting. Consequently, it was unknown what effect particul…
Supershear Rupture Indicator in Near-fault Particle Motion
The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；École Normale Supérieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院，CNRS-UMR 8538，PSL研究大学）；Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学深圳研究院）；Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学环境、能源与可持续发展研究所）；Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学空间与地球信息科学研究所）；Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)（法国地质与矿业研究局）
We report on slow earthquakes in Northern Cascadia, and show that continuous seismic energy in the subduction zone follows specific patterns leading to failure. We rely on machine learning models to map characteristic energy signals from low-amplitude seismic waves to the timing of slow slip events. We find that patterns in seismic energy follow the 14-month slow slip cycle. Our results point towards a recurrent build-up in seismic energy as the fault approaches failure. This behavior shares a striking resemblance with our previous observations from slow slips in the laboratory.
