Continuous GPS and broadband seismic monitoring have revealed a variety of disparate slip patterns especially in shallow dipping subduction zones, among which regular earthquakes, slow slip events and silent quakes1,2. Slow slip events are sometimes accompanied by Non Volcanic Tremors (NVT), which origin remains unclear3, either related to fluid migration or to friction. The present understanding of the whole menagerie of slip patterns is based upon numerical simulations imposing ad hoc values of the rate and state parameters a and b4-6 derived from the temperature dependence of a and b of a wet granite gouge7. Here we investigate the influence of the cumulative slip on the frictional and acoustic patterns of a lab scale subduction zone. Shallow loud earthquakes (stick-slip events), medium depth slow, deeper silent quakes (smooth sliding oscillations) and deepest steady-state creep (continuous sliding) are reproduced by the ageing of contact interface with cumulative displacement8. The Acoustic Emission evolves with cumulative displacement and interface ageing, following a trend from strong impulsive events, similar to earthquake seismic signals, to a collection of smaller amplitude and longer duration signals, similar to Non Volcanic Tremors. NVT emerge as the recollection of the local unstable behaviour of the contact interface globally evolving towards the stable sliding regime.
We report on slow earthquakes in Northern Cascadia, and show that continuous seismic energy in the subduction zone follows specific patterns leading to failure. We rely on machine learning models to map characteristic energy signals from low-amplitude seismic waves to the timing of slow slip events. We find that patterns in seismic energy follow the 14-month slow slip cycle. Our results point towards a recurrent build-up in seismic energy as the fault approaches failure. This behavior shares a striking resemblance with our previous observations from slow slips in the laboratory.
In subduction zones, seismic slip at shallow crustal depths can lead to the generation of tsunamis. Large slip displacements during tsunamogenic earthquakes are attributed to the low coseismic shear strength of the fluid-saturated and non-lithified clay-rich fault rocks. However, because of experimental challenges in confining these materials, the physical processes responsible of the coseismic reduction in fault shear strength are poorly understood. Using a novel experimental setup, we measured pore fluid pressure during simulated seismic slip in clay-rich materials sampled from the deep ocea…
In the present paper, we analyze the signatures of long-range persistence in seismic sequences along Circum-Pacific subduction zones, from Chile to Kermadec, extracted from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) catalog. This region, known as the Pacific Ring of Fire, is the world's most active fault line, containing about 90$\%$ of the world's earthquakes. We used the classical rescaled range ($R/S$) analysis to estimate the long-term persistence signals derived from a scaling parameter called the Hurst exponent, $H$. We measured the referred exponent and obtained values of $H>0.5$…
The lack of offshore seismic data caused uncertainties associated to understating the behavior of future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). Future tsunamigenic events in the MSZ may trigger significant near-field tsunamis. Run-up heights in the near-field are controlled by the heterogeneity of slip over the rupture area. Considering a non-planar geometry for the Makran subduction zone, a range of random k^{-2} slip models were generated to hypothesize rupturing on the fault zone. We model tsunamis numerically and assess probabilistic tsunami hazard in the near-field …
The roughness of the subduction interface is thought to influence seismogenic behavior in subduction zones, but a detailed understanding of how such roughness affects the state of stress along the subduction megathrust is still debated. Here, we use seismotectonic analogue models to investigate the effect of subduction interface roughness on seismicity in subduction zones. We compared analogue earthquake source parameters and slip distributions for two roughness endmembers. Models characterized by a very rough interface have lower interface frictional strength and lower interseismic coupling t…
A systematic search for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone (24$^\circ$S-31$^\circ$S) turns up empty
The purpose of this work is to compare kinematics of small-scale current vortices located near the core-mantle boundary with high-speed anomalies of seismic wave velocity in the lowest mantle asso-ciated with the subduction zones. The small-scale vortex paths were early obtained by the authors in the frame of the macro model of the main geomagnetic field sources. Two sources were chosen whose kine-matics are characterized by the complete absence of the western drift and whose paths have a very com-plex shape. Both sources are located in the vicinity of the subduction zones characterized by the…
The Makran subduction zone, an approximate 1000 km section of the Eurasian-Arabian plate, is located offshore of Southern Iran and Pakistan. In 1945, the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) generated a tsunamigenic earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 8.1. The region has also experienced large historical earthquakes but the data regarding these events are poorly documented. Therefore, the need to investigate tsunamis in Makran must be taken into serious consideration. Using hydrodynamic numerical simulation, we evaluate the tsunami wave energy generated by bottom motion for a tsunamigenic source model d…
Seismic quiescence and activation prior to the 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake
University of Shizuoka（静冈大学）；Shizuoka University（静冈大学）；Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术机构）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Santa Fe Institute（圣塔菲研究所）
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time for magnitude 9 earthquakes off the Tohoku coast? The "maximum earthquake size" is often guessed from the available history of earthquakes, a method known for its significant downward bias. There are two quantitative methods for estimating the maximum magnitude in any region: a statistical analysis of the available earthquake record, and the moment conservat…
We discover a remarkable correlation between the inter-tremor time interval and the slenderness ratio of the overriding plate in subduction zones all over the world. In order to understand this phenomenon better, we perform numerical simulations of 3D deformation. The numerical buckling studies show that critical load and slenderness ratio indeed have an inverse nonlinear relation between them -- identical to the classical Euler's critical load relation, and closely resemble the relationship observed between the inter-tremor time interval and the slenderness ratio of the overriding plate. From…
Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs). Slow slip has been reproduced in laboratory and simulation studies, however the fundamental physics of these phenomena and their relationship to dynamic earthquake rupture remains poorly understood. Here we show that, in a laboratory setting, continuous seismic waves are imprinted with fundamental signatures of the fault's phys…
A few ground-motion prediction models have been published in the last years, for predicting ground motions produced by interface and intraslab earthquakes. When one must carry out a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in a region including a subduction zone, GMPEs must be selected to feed a logic tree. In the present study, the aim is to identify which models provide the best fit to the dataset M6+, global or local models. The subduction regions considered are Japan, Taiwan, Central and South America, and Greece. Most of the data comes from the database built to develop the new BCHydro subdu…
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
During the eruption of the Kizimen volcano in 2010-2013. There was a uniform squeezing of the viscous lava flow. Simultaneously with its movement, earthquakes with an unusual quasi-periodicity were recorded, the "drumbeats" mode. In this work, we show that these earthquakes were generated by the movement of the flow front, which was observed for the first time in the practice of volcanological research. We represent the movement of the flow as an intermittent slip with the inclusion of the "stick-slip" mechanism with the initiation of a self-oscillating process. The plausibility of the phenome…
Interplate megathrust earthquakes have inflicted catastrophic damage on human society. An extremely hazardous megathrust earthquake is predicted to occur along the Nankai Trough off southwestern Japan, an economically active and densely populated area with historical records of megathrust earthquakes. Megathrust earthquakes are the result of a plate subduction mechanism and occur at interplate slip-deficit (or coupling) regions. Many past studies have attempted to capture slip-deficit rate (SDR) distributions for assessing future earthquake disasters. However, they could not capture a total vi…
Hydraulic fracturing increases reservoir permeability by opening fractures and triggering slip on natural fractures and faults. While seismic slip of small faults or fault patches is detectable as microseismic events, the role of aseismic slip is poorly understood. From a modeling standpoint, geomechanical analysis using the Coulomb criterion can determine if faults slip but not whether slip is seismic or aseismic. Here we propose a computational methodology to predict fault slip, and whether slip is seismic or aseismic, using rate-and-state friction. To avoid computational costs associated wi…
The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other probabilistic methods while a larger magnitude (M > 9.0) had been proposed for all subduction zones. The observed discrepancy between the proposed EQ magnitude range and the actual one of the Tohoku EQ is studied in this work in terms of the cumulative seismic energy release of the study area and by the use of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM…
Understanding rock shear failure behavior is crucial to gain insights into slip-related geohazards such as rock avalanches, landslides, and earthquakes. However, descriptions of the progressive damage on the shear surface are still incomplete or ambiguous. In this study, we use the hybrid finite-discrete element method (FDEM) to simulate a shear experiment and obtain a detailed comprehension of shear induced progressive damage and the associated seismic activity. We built a laboratory fault model from high resolution surface scans and micro-CT imaging. Our results show that under quasi-static …
In this study, we investigate porosity evolution through the sedimentary input section of the North Sumatra Subduction zone by quantifying interstitial porosity, bound water content and fracture porosity based on IODP Expedition 362 data and post-cruise chemical analyses. During IODP Expedition 362, total porosity of the sedimentary section entering the North Sumatra subduction zone was measured. This total porosity is derived from the total water content of core samples thus including pore water and water bound to hydrous minerals like smectite. Clay mineral composition varies over the sedime…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic slip radiating seismic waves (i.e. earthquakes) or slow, silent slip (i.e. SSEs) is a fundamental point in the estimation of seismic hazard along subduction zones. On top of showing slower rupture propagation velocity than earthquakes, SSEs exhibit different scaling relationships, which could reflect either different physical mechanisms or an intriguing lack of…
Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes ($M_w>7$), slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries. These slip transients are the slow release of built-up tectonic stress that are geodetically imaged as a predominantly aseismic rupture, which is smooth in both time and space. We demonstrate here that large slow slip events are in fact a cluster of short-duration slow transients. Using a dense catalog of low-frequency earthquakes as a guide, we investigate the $M_w7.5$ slow slip event that occurred in 2006 along the subducti…
Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed enough to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi-continuous tremor…
Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained. Here, we report on stick-slip experiments (laboratory earthquakes) conducted under seismogenic stresses in dry and fluid pressure conditions. We show that the precursory moment release scales with mainshock magnitude irrespective of the slip behavior (seismic or aseismic), the presence of fluid and the fault's slip history. Importantly, this observation is …
We demonstrate the efficacy of a Bayesian statistical inversion framework for reconstructing the likely characteristics of large pre-instrumentation earthquakes from historical records of tsunami observations. Our framework is designed and implemented for the estimation of the location and magnitude of seismic events from anecdotal accounts of tsunamis including shoreline wave arrival times, heights, and inundation lengths over a variety of spatially separated observation locations. As an initial test case we use our framework to reconstruct the great 1852 earthquake and tsunami of eastern Ind…
Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features show that these features may be indicative of predictive seismic motion; however, quantifying high-accuracy uncertainty of the frictional fields has not yet been achieved. We therefore propose a method of uncertainty quantification for spatially inhomogeneous frictional features from slip motion on an LSSE fault--megathrust fault complex in southwestern Jap…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate characteristics of earthquakes (EQs) and slow slip events (SSEs) that are only apparent in a second dimension. We find that the leading edge of an EQ rupture in the direction of the global shear stress (x-direction) is wider in the plane of the crustal fault (y-direction) than the trailing edge. The direction of the slip velocity is primarily in the x-direction. EQ…
We compute a series of finite-source parameter inversions of the fault rupture of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake based on 1 Hz GPS records only. We confirm that some of the co-seismic slip at shallow depth (<5 km) constrained by InSAR data processing results from early post-seismic deformation. We also show 1) that if located very close to the rupture, a GPS receiver can saturate while it remains possible to estimate the ground velocity (~1.2 m/s) near the fault, 2) that GPS waveforms inversions constrain that the slip distribution at depth even when GPS monuments are not located directly above…
Active faults release tectonic stress imposed by plate motion through a spectrum of slip modes, from slow, aseismic slip, to dynamic, seismic events. Slow earthquakes are often associated with tectonic tremor, non-impulsive signals that can easily be buried in seismic noise and go undetected. We present a new methodology aimed at improving the detection and location of tremors hidden within seismic noise. After identifying tremors with a classic convolutional neural network, we rely on neural network attribution to extract core tremor signatures and denoise input waveforms. We then use these c…
Rapid Earthquake-to-Tsunami Waveform Generation via Large-Scale Multi-GPU FFT Convolution Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone
Oden Institute for Computational Engineering；Sciences The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA；Sciences, Walker Department of Mechanical Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA
Dilatancy associated with fault slip produces a transient pore pressure drop which increases frictional strength. This effect is analysed in a steadily propagating rupture model that includes frictional weakening, slip-dependent fault dilation and fluid flow. Dilatancy is shown to increase the stress intensity factor required to propagate the rupture tip. With increasing rupture speed, an undrained (strengthened) region develops near the tip and extends beyond the frictionally weakened zone. Away from the undrained region, pore fluid diffusion gradually recharges the fault and strength returns…
Cross-sphere Coupling and Source Inversion of Ionospheric Disturbances Associated with the 2025 Myanmar Strike-slip Earthquake from BeiDou GEO and Multi-GNSS Observations
A high-resolution finite volume method approach to incorporating time-dependent slip across rectangular subfaults when modeling general fault geometry is presented. The fault slip is induced by a modification of the Riemann problem to the linear elasticity equations across cell interfaces aligned with the subfaults. This is illustrated in the context of the high-resolution wave-propagation algorithms that are implemented in the open source Clawpack software (www.clawpack.org), but this approach could be easily incorporated into other Riemann solver based numerical methods. Surface deformation …
Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault per…
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip fashion. Previous observations by us include a bounded critical state with a power law distribution of event energy consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter law, here we also reveal stair-case seismicity, clustering, foreshocks, aftershocks and seismic quiescence. Subcritical and supercritical regimes have also been observed by us depending on the system configur…
