Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission histories and fault-slip from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate results using laboratory data. Notably slip-predictions markedly improve using the simulation-data trained-model and training the latent space using a portion of a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.
Hydraulic fracturing increases reservoir permeability by opening fractures and triggering slip on natural fractures and faults. While seismic slip of small faults or fault patches is detectable as microseismic events, the role of aseismic slip is poorly understood. From a modeling standpoint, geomechanical analysis using the Coulomb criterion can determine if faults slip but not whether slip is seismic or aseismic. Here we propose a computational methodology to predict fault slip, and whether slip is seismic or aseismic, using rate-and-state friction. To avoid computational costs associated wi…
The burgeoning need to sequester anthropogenic CO$_2$ for climate mitigation and the need for energy sustenance leading upto enhanced geothermal energy production has made it incredibly critical to study potential earthquakes due to fluid activity in the subsurface. These earthquakes result from reactivation of faults in the subsurface due to pore pressure perturbations. In this work, we provide a framework to model fault slip due to pore pressure change leading upto quantifying the earthquake magnitude.
Over the last two decades, strain and GPS measurements have shown that slow slip on earthquake faults is a widespread phenomenon. Slow slip is also inferred from correlated small amplitude seismic signals known as nonvolcanic tremor and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs). Slow slip has been reproduced in laboratory and simulation studies, however the fundamental physics of these phenomena and their relationship to dynamic earthquake rupture remains poorly understood. Here we show that, in a laboratory setting, continuous seismic waves are imprinted with fundamental signatures of the fault's phys…
Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features show that these features may be indicative of predictive seismic motion; however, quantifying high-accuracy uncertainty of the frictional fields has not yet been achieved. We therefore propose a method of uncertainty quantification for spatially inhomogeneous frictional features from slip motion on an LSSE fault--megathrust fault complex in southwestern Jap…
The surface roughness of a recently exhumed strikeslip fault plane has been measured by three independent 3D portable laser scanners. Digital elevation models of several fault surface areas, from 1 m2 to 600 m2, have been measured at a resolution ranging from 5 mm to 80 mm. Out of plane height fluctuations are described by non-Gaussian distribution with exponential long range tails. Statistical scaling analyses show that the striated fault surface exhibits self-affine scaling invariance with a small but significant directional morphological anisotropy that can be described by two scaling rough…
The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250-400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (~2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. T…
In Stathas and Stefanou (2022) we presented the frictional response of a bounded fault gouge under largecoseismic slip. We did so by taking into account the evolution of the Principal Slip Zone (PSZ) thickness using a Cosserat micromorphic continuum model for the description of the fault's mechanical response. The numerical results obtained differ significantly from those predicted by the established model of thermal pressurization during slip on a mathematical plane (see Mase and Smith (1987); Rice (2006a); Platt et al. (2014a) among others). These differences prompt us to reconsider the basi…
Seismotectonics and Slip Behavior of a Submarine Plate Boundary Fault from Seismicity Repeaters and Tomography using a high-resolution earthquake catalog from machine learning
Physics-informed deep learning links geodetic data and fault friction
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University（京都大学防灾研究所）；Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术机构）；RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）；Kagawa University（香川大学）；Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University（京都大学理学研究科）
Pore pressure change during nucleation and slip along experimental faults
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences（GFZ德国地球科学研究中心）；Department of Earth Sciences, University College London（伦敦大学学院地球科学学院）；Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d’Azur, IRD, Géoazur（蔚蓝海岸大学、法国国家科学研究中心、蔚蓝海岸观测台、法国海外研究与发展署、Géoazur实验室）；Mines Paris, PSL University, Centre for Geosciences and Geoengineering（巴黎矿业学院、PSL大学、地质科学与地球工程中心）
Sheared granular layers undergoing stick slip behavior are broadly employed to study the physics and dynamics of earthquakes. Here, a two dimensional implementation of the combined finite discrete element method (FDEM), which merges the finite element method (FEM) and the discrete element method (DEM), is used to explicitly simulate a sheared granular fault system including both gouge and plate, and to investigate the influence of different normal loads on seismic moment, macroscopic friction coefficient, kinetic energy, gouge layer thickness, and recurrence time between slips. In the FDEM mod…
Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault per…
Segment lengths along major strike-slip faults exhibit a size dependency related to the brittle crust thickness. These segments result in the formation of the localized 'P-shear' deformation crossing and connecting the initial Riedels structures (i.e. en-echelon fault structures) which formed during the genesis stage of the fault zone. Mechanical models show that at all scales, the geometrical characteristics of the Riedels exhibit dependency on the thickness of the brittle layer. Combining the results of our mechanical discrete element model with several analogue experiments using sand, clay …
Many recent studies have tried to determine the influence of geometry of faults in earthquake mechanics. In this paper, we suggest a new interpretation of the effect of geometry on the stress on a fault. Starting from the representation theorem, which links the displacement in a medium to the slip distribution on its boundary, and assuming homogeneous infinite medium, a regularized boundary-element equation can be obtained. Using this equation, it is possible to separate the influence of geometry, as expressed by the curvatures and torsions of the field line of a dislocation on the fault surfa…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic slip radiating seismic waves (i.e. earthquakes) or slow, silent slip (i.e. SSEs) is a fundamental point in the estimation of seismic hazard along subduction zones. On top of showing slower rupture propagation velocity than earthquakes, SSEs exhibit different scaling relationships, which could reflect either different physical mechanisms or an intriguing lack of…
Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)（南方科技大学）；National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV)（意大利地球物理与火山学研究所）；Università degli Studi di Padova（帕多瓦大学）
In this paper, we study the role of thermal pressurization in the frictional response of a fault under large coseismic slip. We investigate the role of the seismic slip velocity, mixture compressibility, characteristic grain size and viscosity parameter in the frictional response of the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical problem, taking into account the fault's microstructure. Starting from the mass, energy and momentum balance for Cosserat continua we derive the equations of our model. We complete the mathematical description using perfect plasticity and Perzyna viscoplasticity in the material c…
Bursts of tremor accompany a moving slip pulse in Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS) events. The sources of this non-volcanic tremor (NVT) are largely unknown. We have developed a model describing the mechanism of NTV generation. According to this model, NTV is a reflection of resonant-type oscillations excited in a fault at certain depth ranges. From a mathematical viewpoint, tremor (phonons) and slip pulses (solitons) are two different solutions of the sine-Gordon equation describing frictional processes inside a fault. In an ETS event, a moving slip pulse generates tremor due to interaction wit…
Tectonic faults slip in various manners, ranging from ordinary earthquakes to slow slip events to aseismic fault creep. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes and their sensitivity to stress make them a promising probe of the neighboring locked zone where megaquakes take place. This relationship, however, remains poorly understood. We show that the Cascadia megathrust is continuously broadcasting a tremor-like signal that precisely informs of fault displacement rate throughout the slow slip cycle. We posit that this signal provides indirect, real-time access to physical properties of the …
Failure and fault slip in crystalline rocks is associated with dilation. When pore fluids are present and drainage is insufficient, dilation leads to pore pressure drops, which in turn lead to strengthening of the material. We conducted laboratory rock fracture experiments with direct in-situ fluid pressure measurements which demonstrate that dynamic rupture propagation and fault slip can be stabilised (i.e., become quasi-static) by such a dilatancy strengthening effect. We also observe that, for the same effective pressures but lower pore fluid pressures, the stabilisation process may be arre…
The surface morphology of faults controls the spatial anisotropy of their frictional properties, and hence their mechanical stability. Such anisotropy is only rarely studied in seismology models of fault slip, although it might be paramount to understand the seismic rupture in particular areas, notably where slip occurs in a direction different from that of the main striations of the fault. To quantify how the anisotropy of fault surfaces affects the friction coefficient during sliding, we sheared synthetic fault planes made of plaster of Paris. These fault planes were produced by 3D-printing …
This paper has evolved out of our previous work on static stress transfer, where we used the full-space elastostatic Green's tensor to compute the Coulomb stress transfer impact of the Landers earthquake on the Hector Mine event. In this work, we use the elastostatic Green's tensor for an arbitrary layered Earth model with free-surface boundary conditions to study the impact of elastic heterogeneity as well as source-fault slip and geometry on the stress transfer mechanism. Slip distribution and fault geometry of the source have a significant impact on the stress transfer, especially in case o…
A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of shear strength on fault rheology, sliding velocity, and pore-fluid pressure. In this study, we present H-MEC (Hydro-Mechanical Earthquake Cycles), a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical code - which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow - to simulate how crustal stress and fluid pressure evolve during the earthquake cycle on a fluid-bearing fault structure. This unified, continuum-based model, incorporates a staggered finite difference-marker-in-cell (SF…
Friction and fault surface evolution are critical aspects in earthquake studies. We present the preliminary result from a novel experimental approach that combines rotary shear testing with X-ray micro-computed tomography ($μ$CT) technology. An artificial fault was sheared at small incremental rotational steps under the normal stress of 2.5 MPa. During shearing, mechanical data including normal force and torque were measured and used to calculate the friction coefficient. After each rotation increment, a $μ$CT scan was conducted to observe the sample structure. The careful and quantitative $μ$…
Supershear Rupture Indicator in Near-fault Particle Motion
The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；École Normale Supérieure, CNRS-UMR 8538, PSL Research University（巴黎高等师范学院，CNRS-UMR 8538，PSL研究大学）；Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学深圳研究院）；Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学环境、能源与可持续发展研究所）；Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学空间与地球信息科学研究所）；Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM)（法国地质与矿业研究局）
Fluid pressure and flow in the crust is a key parameter controlling earthquake physics. Since earthquake slip is linked to spatio-temporal localisation of deformation, it is expected that the localised fluid pressure around the fault plane could potentially impact the dynamic strength of the slipping fault zone. Coseismic fluid pressure drops have been inferred from field studies, notably in gold deposits which are thought to be formed by this process, but reliable quantitative predictions are still lacking. Here, experimental results are presented where local on- and off-fault fluid pressure …
We study strain localization as an enhanced velocity weakening mechanism on earthquake faults. Fault friction is modeled using Shear Transformation Zone (STZ) Theory, a microscopic physical model for non-affine rearrangements in granular fault gouge. STZ Theory is implemented in spring slider and dynamic rupture models of faults. We compare dynamic shear localization to deformation that is uniform throughout the gouge layer, and find that localized slip enhances the velocity weakening of the gouge. Localized elastodynamic ruptures have larger stress drops and higher peak slip rates than ruptur…
In subduction zones, seismic slip at shallow crustal depths can lead to the generation of tsunamis. Large slip displacements during tsunamogenic earthquakes are attributed to the low coseismic shear strength of the fluid-saturated and non-lithified clay-rich fault rocks. However, because of experimental challenges in confining these materials, the physical processes responsible of the coseismic reduction in fault shear strength are poorly understood. Using a novel experimental setup, we measured pore fluid pressure during simulated seismic slip in clay-rich materials sampled from the deep ocea…
Hydraulic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs in low-permeability basement and crystalline igneous rock can enhance permeability by reactivation and shear dilation of existing fractures. The process is characterized by interaction between fluid flow, deformation, and the fractured structure of the formation. The flow is highly affected by the fracture network, which in turn is deformed because of hydromechanical stress changes caused by the fluid injection. This process-structure interaction is decisive for the outcome of hydraulic stimulation, and, in analysis of governing mechanisms, physic…
Earthquakes induced during hydraulic fracturing operations have occurred in a number of locales. However, in-situ studies aimed to discern the triggering mechanism remains exclusively statistical in their nature. Here, we calculate the fault slip-tendencies of eleven hydraulic fracturing induced earthquakes in a historically aseismic area using a recently constructed quantitative model for in-situ stresses. It is shown that the ambient pore pressures of the nearby Duvernay unconventional reservoirs can provide enough Pf triggering fault movement. The local fluid pressures acting on the fault c…
We compute displacement and stress due to a normal fault by means of two-dimensional plane-strain finite-element analysis. To do so, we apply a system of forces to the fault nodes and develop an iterative algorithm serving to determine the force magnitudes for any slip distribution. As a sample case, we compute the force magnitudes assuming uniform slip on a 10-km two-dimensional normal fault. The numerical model generates displacement and stress fields that compare well to the analytical solution. In fact, we find little difference in displacements (<5%), displacement orientation (<15 DEG), a…
Potential energy stored during the inter-seismic period by tectonic loading around faults is released during earthquakes as radiated energy, heat and fracture energy. The latter is of first importance since it controls the nucleation, propagation and arrest of the seismic rupture. On one side, fracture energy estimated for natural earthquakes (breakdown work) shows a clear slip-dependence. On the other side, recent experimental studies highlighted that, fracture energy is a material property limited by an upper bound value corresponding to the fracture energy of the intact material independent…
We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization schemes, and bulk and fault rheologies. We have developed a custom preconditioner for the Lagrange multiplier portion of the system of equations that provides excellent scalability with problem size compare…
