arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1807.07285cs.DL
收藏

突破的概率和预期频率--基于引文分布双秩性质的一种稳健的研究评估方法

Probability and expected frequency of breakthroughs - a robust method of research assessment based on the double rank property of citation distributions

Alonso Rodriguez-Navarro, Ricardo Brito

摘要:

在研究政策方面,促进知识创造的有效措施必须以可靠的研究评估方法为基础,但许多国家和机构的情况并非如此。出版物和引文分析可以用来估计国家和机构在全球知识进步中所发挥的作用,但具体的估计方法还远不明显。之所以出现这一挑战,是因为报告知识实际进展的出版物在所有出版物中所占比例极低;在大多数国家和机构,这种贡献每年出现不到一次。克服这一困难的方法之一是计算概率,而不是计算科学进步所基于的罕见事件。本研究回顾和总结了几个最近的出版物,并增加了新的结果,表明正常出版物的引用分布允许计算支持知识进步的罕见事件的概率。

英文摘要:

In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation analyses can be used to estimate the part played by countries and institutions in the global progress of knowledge, but a concrete method of estimation is far from evident. The challenge arises because publications that report real progress of knowledge form an extremely low proportion of all publications; in most countries and institutions such contributions appear less than once per year. One way to overcome this difficulty is to calculate probabilities instead of counting the rare events on which scientific progress is based. This study reviews and summarizes several recent publications, and adds new results that demonstrate that the citation distribution of normal publications allows the probability of the infrequent events that support the progress of knowledge to be calculated.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑