依赖近期和时间上分散的科学预测突破性发明
Relying on recent and temporally dispersed science predicts breakthrough inventions
AI总结：
本研究通过分析专利引用科学论文的时间特征，发现引用近期且时间分散的科学文献能显著提升专利成为突破性发明的可能性，但低方差的引用年龄会抵消此效应。
摘要：
发明的开发被理论化为搜索和重组现有知识组件的过程。在此理论下的先前研究考察了重组知识的无数特征及其对性能的影响。其中一个备受关注的特征是技术知识年龄。然而，尽管科学在创造新技术中的催化作用广为人知，但关于科学知识的年龄如何影响发明的影响力却知之甚少。在此，我们使用大型专利语料库，并提取特征来表征专利在科学空间中如何进行时间上的搜索。我们发现，引用科学论文的专利获得更多引用，且成为突破性发明的可能性大幅增加。在科学空间中进行搜索的条件下，引用更近期的论文会增加专利的影响力及其成为突破性发明的可能性。然而，如果专利引用的论文年龄表现出低方差，这种积极效应可能会被抵消。这些效应在各个技术领域中保持一致。
英文摘要：
The development of inventions is theorized as a process of searching and recombining existing knowledge components. Previous studies under this theory have examined myriad characteristics of recombined knowledge and their performance implications. One such feature that has received much attention is technological knowledge age. Yet, little is known about how the age of scientific knowledge influences the impact of inventions, despite the widely known catalyzing role of science in the creation of new technologies. Here we use a large corpus of patents and derive features characterizing how patents temporally search in the scientific space. We find that patents that cite scientific papers have more citations and substantially more likely to become breakthroughs. Conditional on searching in the scientific space, referencing more recent papers increases the impact of patents and the likelihood of being breakthroughs. However, this positive effect can be offset if patents cite papers whose ages exhibit a low variance. These effects are consistent across technological fields.
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