The periods of magnetic activity cycles in the Sun and solar-type stars do not exhibit a simple or even single trend with respect to rotation rate or luminosity. Dynamo models can be used to interpret this diversity, and can ultimately help us understand why some solar-like stars do not exhibit a magnetic cycle, whereas some do, and for the latter what physical mechanisms set their magnetic cycle period. Three-dimensional non-linear magnetohydrodynamical simulations present the advantage of having only a small number of tunable parameters, and produce in a dynamically self-consistent manner the flows and the dynamo magnetic fields pervading stellar interiors. We conducted a series of such simulations within the EULAG-MHD framework, varying the rotation rate and luminosity of the modeled solar-like convective envelopes. We find decadal magnetic cycles when the Rossby number near the base of the convection zone is moderate (typically between 0.25 and 1). Secondary, shorter cycles located at the top of the convective envelope close to the equator are also observed in our numerical experiments, when the local Rossby number is lower than 1. The deep-seated dynamo sustained in these numerical experiments is fundamentally non-linear, in that it is the feedback of the large-scale magnetic field on the large-scale differential rotation that sets the magnetic cycle period. The cycle period is found to decrease with the Rossby number, which offers an alternative theoretical explanation to the variety of activity cycles observed in solar-like stars.
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during the period 1874-2017. We determined the amplitude of the Solar Cycles 12-24 and the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole-sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of the maxima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. Using all these we obtained the relations similar to that fou…
The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean Version-2 international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017 and found that there exists a good correlation between the amplitude (value of the main and highest peak) and the value of the second maximum (value of the second highest peak) during the maximum of a solar cycle.Using this relationship and the earlier predicted value 86 (~92) of the amplitude o…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the Sun would experience a Dalton-like minimum, or even the Maunder-like minimum, if the declining trend continues in the following several cycles, so that the predictions of solar activity for cycles 25 and 26 are crucial. In Qin & Wu, 2018, ApJ, we established an SSN prediction model denoted as two-parameter modified logistic prediction (TMLP) model, which can…
Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four ($\sim$11-year long) sunspot cycles (numbers 21 through 24). Recent research has highlighted the persistence of the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) and its connection to the fundamental Hale Cycle - albeit through a host of proxies resulting from image analysis of the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona. This short manuscript presents the correspondence of the ESC,…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11-year sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our ad…
Iron-rich solar particle events measured by SOHO/ERNE during two solar cycles
本文研究了第23和24太阳活动周之间太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件的重离子成分的差异。我们已经调查了SOHO/ERNE重离子数据从太阳周期23开始到2015年6月底，也就是说，进入周期24的下降阶段。我们利用这段长时间的观测来研究重离子（从C到Fe）的性质，并在这方面比较两个太阳活动周期。我们调查了SEP事件的数据与增强的Fe/C和Fe/O的强度比在能量范围5-15 MeV的每个核子，并与太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射（CME）的事件在可能的情况下。我们研究了这些事件中重离子的性质，并比较了两个太阳活动周之间重离子的平均相对丰度。我们发现，在太阳活动周期24期间，碳和氧强度高于~10 $^{-3}$ cm $^{-2}$ sr $^{-1}$ s $^{-1}$（MeVn $^{-1}$）$^{-1}$的天数少于周期23期间。对于Fe，即使在较低的强度下，这种差异也是明显的。我们还发现，在第24周期期间，Fe/（C+O）> 0.183的天数较少。我们确定了86个SEP事件，至少有一个富铁日，其中65个发生在第23周期，只有21个发生在第24周期。我们发现，在第24个周期中，脉冲事件几乎完全不存在。在事件中的重离子的平均丰度被认为是显着低于在周期24比在周期23。我们的研究结果反映了太阳活动在第24周减少，并表明在第24周的粒子加速过程的效率较低的渐进和脉冲SEP事件。
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In this work, we consider the 5-to-6 year oscillations as derived both from sunspot and from solar magnetic dipole time series. Using the solar dynamo model, we deduced that these variations may be a manifestation of the dynamo nonlinearities and non-harmonic shape of the solar activity cycles. We conclude that the observed mid-term oscillations are related to th…
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and progress is slow. Schatten et al. (1978) suggested that the magnitude of the magnetic field in the polar regions of the sun near solar minimum could serve as a precursor for the evolution and amplitude of the following solar cycle. Since then, this idea has been the foundation of somewhat successful predictions of the size of the last four cycles, especially of th…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough terms. In this article a forecast for the evolution of solar cycle 25 in terms of solar flares activity is presented. It is derived from an existing phenomenological model based on the coupling of an internal solar component and a planetary component. In addition to competent temporal resolution, the predictions are characterized by features which both differ…
Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: Spotting Solar Cycle 25
我们提出了太阳活动周期25开始的观测签名。这些特征明显地沿着从高纬度到低纬度的迁移路径。它们的起始点在每个半球的时间上不对称地偏移，这些时间是在太阳活动周期23的相应的、相同极性的活动带开始迁移后21-22年。这些波段定义了所谓的“扩展太阳周期”。“目前系统中存在的四个磁条正在接近相互抵消的配置，太阳最低条件即将到来。此外，使用每日波段纬度-时间诊断的调谐分析，我们能够利用数据中的纵波数（m=1）变化来更清楚地揭示太阳周期25波段的存在。这一澄清说明，目前在中纬度地区存在着非常活跃的日冕（每个半球都不同），持续了许多太阳旋转，可以在未来几年内使用IRIS上的光谱仪，Hinode上的光谱偏振仪等仪器进行详细研究，当它们上线时，Daniel K. Inouye太阳望远镜（DKIST），因为我们看到这些波段在2019年底赤道太阳活动周期24活动带取消后演变。
Helioseismic data for solar cycles 23 and 24 have shown unequivocally that solar dynamics changes with solar activity. Changes in solar structure have been more difficult to detect. Basu & Mandel (2004) had claimed that the then available data revealed changes in the HeII ionization zone of the Sun. The amount of change, however, indicated the need for larger than expected changes in the magnetic fields. Now that helioseismic data spanning two solar cycles are available, we have redone the analysis using improved fitting techniques. We find that there is indeed a change in the region around th…
We study the complexity of the supergranular network through fractal dimension by using Ca II K digitized data archive obtained from Kodaikanal solar observatory. The data consists of 326 visually selected supergranular cells spread across the 23rd solar cycle. Only cells that were well-defined were chosen for the analysis and we discuss the potential selection effect thereof, mainly that it favors cells of a smaller size (< 20 Mm). Within this sample, we analyzed the fractal dimension of supergranules across the Solar cycle and find that it is anticorrelated with the activity level.
Homogeneous coronal data set (HCDS) of the green corona (Fe XIV) and coronal index of the solar activity (CI) have been used to study time-latitudinal distribution in solar cycles 18-24 and compared with similar distribution of sunspots, the magnetic fields and the solar radio flux 10.7 cm. The most important results are: (a) distribution of coronal intensities related to the cycle maximum are different for individual cycles, (b) the poleward migration of the HCDS from mid latitudes in each cycle exists, even in extremely weak Cycle 24, and the same is valid for the equatorward migration (c) t…
According to the scheme of action of the solar dynamo, the poloidal magnetic field can be considered a source of production of the toroidal magnetic field by the solar differential rotation. From the polar magnetic field proxies, it is natural to expect that solar Cycle 25 will be weak as recorded in sunspot data. We suggest that there are parameters of the zonal harmonics of the solar surface magnetic field, such as the magnitude of the $\ell$=3 harmonic or the effective multipole index, that can be used as a reasonable addition to the polar magnetic field proxies. We discuss also some specif…
The relative abundance of alpha particles with respect to proton, usually expressed as $A_{He}$ = ($n_α/n_p$)*100, is known to respond to solar activity although changes in its behaviour in the last four solar cycles are not known. In this letter, by systematically analysing inter-calibrated $A_{He}$ data obtained from the first Lagrangian point of the Sun-Earth system, we show that $A_{He}$ variations are distinctively different in solar cycle 24 as compared to the last three cycles. The frequency of $A_{He}$ = 2-3% events is significantly higher in slow/intermediate solar winds in cycle 24 a…
We examine the solar-cycle variation of the power in the low-degree helioseismic modes by looking at binned power spectra from 45 years of observations with the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network, which provides a more robust estimate of the mode power than that obtained by peak fitting. The solar-cycle variation of acoustic mode power in the five-minute band is clearly seen. Unusually, even though Cycle 24 was substantially weaker in terms of surface magnetic activity than Cycle 23, the reduction in mode power at solar maximum is very similar for the two cycles, suggesting that the relatio…
We compare spectra of the zonal harmonics of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun using observation results and solar dynamo models. The main solar activity cycle as recorded in these tracers is a much more complicated phenomenon than the eigen solution of solar dynamo equations with the growth saturated by a back reaction of the dynamo-driven magnetic field on solar hydrodynamics. The nominal 11(22)-year cycle as recorded in each mode has a specific phase shift varying from cycle to cycle; the actual length of the cycle varies from one cycle to another and from tracer to tracer. Both the…
Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock-Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Yeates et al. (2008) argue that the discrepancy arises due to different memories of the solar dynamo for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. We aim to investigate the differences in solar cycle memory obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic solar dynamo models. Specifically, we explore whether the inclusion of Parker's mean-field $α$ effect, in …
While it has been relatively easy to determine solar-cycle related changes in solar dynamics, determining changes in structure in the deeper layers of the Sun has proved to be difficult. By using helioseismic data obtained over two solar cycles, and sacrificing resolution in favour of lower uncertainties, we show that there are significant changes in the solar convection zone, and perhaps even below it. Using MDI data, we find a relative squared sound-speed difference of $(2.56\pm 0.71)\times 10^{-5}$ at the convection-zone base between the maximum of solar Cycle~23 and the minimum between Cyc…
