Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock-Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Yeates et al. (2008) argue that the discrepancy arises due to different memories of the solar dynamo for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. We aim to investigate the differences in solar cycle memory obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic solar dynamo models. Specifically, we explore whether the inclusion of Parker's mean-field $α$ effect, in addition to the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, has any impact on the memory of the solar cycle. We used a kinematic flux transport solar dynamo model where poloidal field generation takes place due to both the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field $α$ effect. We additionally considered stochastic fluctuations in this model and explored cycle-to-cycle correlations between the polar field at the minima and toroidal field at cycle maxima. Solar dynamo memory is always limited to only one cycle in diffusion-dominated dynamo regimes while in advection-dominated regimes the memory is distributed over a few solar cycles. However, the addition of a mean-field alpha effect reduces the memory of the solar dynamo to within one cycle in the advection-dominated dynamo regime when there are no fluctuations in the mean-field $α$ effect. When fluctuations are introduced in the mean-field poloidal source a more complex scenario is evident, with very weak but significant correlations emerging across a few cycles. Our results imply that inclusion of a mean-field alpha effect in the framework of a flux transport Babcock-Leighton dynamo model leads to additional complexities that may impact memory and predictability of predictive dynamo models of the solar cycle.
The chromospheric H-alpha spectral line is a strong line in the spectrum of the Sun and other stars. In the stellar regime, this spectral line is already used as a powerful tracer of stellar activity. For the Sun, other tracers (i.e, CaII K) are typically used to monitor solar activity. We used observations of full-disk H-alpha filtergrams of the Chromospheric Telescope (ChroTel) to extract the imaging H-alpha excess and deficit, which are related to bright features (plage regions) and dark absorption features (filaments and sunspots), respectively. The aim of this study is to introduce the im…
The solar radiation in the Lyman-alpha spectral line of hydrogen plays a significant role in the illumination of chromospheric and coronal structures, such as prominences, spicules, chromospheric fibrils, cores of coronal mass ejections, and solar wind. Moreover, it is important for the investigation of the heliosphere, Earth's ionosphere, and the atmospheres of planets, moons, and comets. We derive a reference quiet-Sun Lyman-alpha spectral profile that is representative of the Lyman-alpha radiation from the solar disk during a minimum of solar activity. This profile can serve as an incident …
We present a modification of a model of solar cycle evolution of the solar Lyman-alpha line profile, along with a sensitivity study of interstellar neutral H hydrogen to uncertainties in radiation pressure level. The line profile model, originally developed by Kowalska-Leszczynska et al. 2018a, is parametrized by the composite solar Lyman-alpha flux, which recently was revised Machol et al. 2019. We present modified parameters of the previously-developed model of solar radiation pressure for neutral hydrogen and deuterium atoms in the heliosphere. The mathematical function used in the model, a…
A combination of diamagnetic pumping and a nonlocal alpha-effect of the Babcock-Leighton type in a solar dynamo model helps to reproduce observations of solar magnetic activity. The period of the solar cycle can be reproduced without reducing magnetic diffusivity in the bulk of the convection zone below the standard mixing-length value of $10^{13}$ cm$^2$s$^{-1}$. The simulated global fields are antisymmetric about the equator and the toroidal-to-poloidal field ratio is about a thousand. The time-latitude diagrams of magnetic fields in the model without meridional flow, however, differ from ob…
The nonlocal alpha-effect of Babcock-Leighton type is not prone to the catastrophic quenching due to conservation of magnetic helicity. This is shown with a dynamo model, which jointly applies the nonlocal alpha-effect, the diamagnetic pumping, and dynamical equation for the magnetic alpha-effect. The same model shows catastrophic quenching when the alpha-effect is changed to its local formulation. The nonlocal model shows the preferred excitation of magnetic fields of dipolar symmetry, which oscillate with a period of about ten years and have a toroidal-to-polar fields ratio of about a thousa…
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot group data since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, H, classes by the Zurich classification], and the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated small and large sunspot group numbers, their sunspot numbers [SSN] and Zurich…
Heating of polar coronal holes during solar minimum and acceleration of the fast solar wind issuing therefrom lack comprehensive theoretical understanding. Wave particle interactions are considered to have crucial effects on the extreme properties of heavy ions in the collision-less region of the polar coronal holes. In this article, we have presented a novel sensitivity analysis to investigate plasma heating by radio waves at lower hybrid frequencies. We have employed a three fluid Maxwell model comprising electrons, protons, and alpha particles at around two solar radius heliocentric distanc…
Context: Most solar and stellar dynamo models use the alpha-Omega scenario where the magnetic field is generated by the interplay between differential rotation (the Omega effect) and a mean electromotive force due to helical turbulent convection flows (the alpha effect). There are, however, turbulent dynamo mechnisms that may complement the alpha effect or may be an alternative to it. Aims: We investigate models of solar-type dynamos where the alpha effect is completely replaced by two other turbulent dynamo mechanisms, namely the Omega x J effect and the shear-current effect, which both resul…
We use helioseismic data from ground and space-based instruments to analyze how solar rotation has changed since the beginning of solar Cycle 23 with emphasis on studying the differences between Cycles 23 and 24. We find that the nature of solar rotation is indeed different for the two cycles. While the changes in the latitudinally independent component follows solar-cycle indices, some of the other components have a more complicated behavior. There is a substantial change in the behavior of the solar zonal flows and their spatial gradients too. While the zonal flows are in general weaker in C…
Recent studies of interstellar neutral (ISN) hydrogen observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) suggested that the present understanding of the radiation pressure acting on hydrogen atoms in the heliosphere should be revised. There is a significant discrepancy between theoretical predictions of the ISN H signal using the currently used model of the solar Lyman-alpha profile by Tarnopolski et al. 2009 (TB09) and the signal due to ISN H observed by IBEX-Lo. We developed a new model of evolution of the solar Lyman-alpha profile that takes into account all available observations of the…
We present chromospheric cloud modeling on the basis of H-alpha profile-sampling images taken with the Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer (IBIS) at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST). We choose the required reference background profile by using theoretical NLTE profile synthesis. The resulting cloud parameters are converted into estimates of physical parameters (temperature and various densities). Their mean values compare well with the VAL-C model.
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the…
We use X-ray observations of the nearby binaries 61 Cyg A/B (K5V and K7V) and Alpha Cen A/B (G2V and K1V) to study the long-term evolution of magnetic activity in weakly to moderately active G + K dwarfs over nearly a decade. Specifically we search for X-ray activity cycles and related coronal changes and compare them to the solar behavior. For 61 Cyg A we find a regular coronal activity cycle analog to its 7.3 yr chromospheric cycle. The X-ray brightness variations are with a factor of three significantly lower than on the Sun, yet the changes of coronal properties resemble the solar behavior…
It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these …
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during the period 1874-2017. We determined the amplitude of the Solar Cycles 12-24 and the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole-sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of the maxima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. Using all these we obtained the relations similar to that fou…
Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle's shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the solar dynamo action, these relations require explanation in the framework of this theory.Here we aim to present a possible explanation of such kind. We relate the cycle-to-cycle variability of solar activity to fluctuations of solar dynamo drivers and primarily to fluctuations in the parameter responsible for recovery of the poloidal magnetic field from the to…
The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean Version-2 international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017 and found that there exists a good correlation between the amplitude (value of the main and highest peak) and the value of the second maximum (value of the second highest peak) during the maximum of a solar cycle.Using this relationship and the earlier predicted value 86 (~92) of the amplitude o…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel, using observed data up to October 2010. The aim of the present paper is to give a quantitative evaluation, a posteriori, of the performances of these prediction methods using a specific global error, updated on a monthly basis, which is a measure of the global performance on the predicted shape (both amplitu…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active la…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the Sun would experience a Dalton-like minimum, or even the Maunder-like minimum, if the declining trend continues in the following several cycles, so that the predictions of solar activity for cycles 25 and 26 are crucial. In Qin & Wu, 2018, ApJ, we established an SSN prediction model denoted as two-parameter modified logistic prediction (TMLP) model, which can…
We report on the space weather events of solar cycle 24 in comparison with those during a similar epoch in cycle 23. We find major differences in all space weather events: solar energetic particles, geomagnetic storms, and interplanetary shocks. Dearth of ground level enhancement (GLE) events and major geomagnetic storms during cycle 24 clearly standout. The space weather events seem to reflect the less frequent solar eruptions and the overall weakness of solar cycle 24.
Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four ($\sim$11-year long) sunspot cycles (numbers 21 through 24). Recent research has highlighted the persistence of the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) and its connection to the fundamental Hale Cycle - albeit through a host of proxies resulting from image analysis of the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona. This short manuscript presents the correspondence of the ESC,…
Extreme solar activity fluctuations and the occurrence of solar grand minima and maxima episodes, are well established, observed features of the solar cycle. Nevertheless, such extreme activity fluctuations and the dynamics of the solar cycle during Maunder minima-like episodes remain ill-understood. We explore the origin of such extreme solar activity fluctuations and the role of dual poloidal field sources, namely the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and the mean-field alpha effect in the dynamics of the solar cycle. We mainly concentrate on entry and recovery from grand minima episodes such as th…
The parameters of the p-mode oscillations vary with solar activity. Such temporal variations provide insights for the study of the structural and dynamical changes occurring in the Sun's interior throughout the solar cycle. We present here a complete picture of the temporal variations of the global p-mode parameters (excitation, damping, frequency, peak asymmetry, and rotational splitting) over the entire solar cycle 23 and the beginning of cycle 24 as observed by the space-based, Sun-as-a-star helioseismic GOLF and VIRGO instruments onboard SoHO.
Even in quiet areas underneath coronal holes the solar chromosphere contains ubiquitous heating events. They tend to be small scale and short lived, hence difficult to identify. Here we do not address their much-debated contribution to outer-atmosphere heating, but their aftermaths. We performed a statistical analysis of high-resolution observations in the Balmer H-alpha line to suggest that many slender dark H-alpha fibrils spreading out from network represent cooling gas that outlines tracks of preceding rapid type II spicule events or smaller similar but as yet unresolved heating agents in …
The first results of the solar dynamo model that allows for the diamagnetic effect of inhomogeneous turbulence and the nonlocal alpha-effect due to the rise of magnetic loops are discussed. The nonlocal alpha-effect is not subject to the catastrophic quenching related to the conservation of magnetic helicity. Given the diamagnetic pumping, the magnetic fields are concentrated near the base of the convection zone, although the distributed-type model covers the entire thickness of the convection zone. The magnetic cycle period, the equatorial symmetry of the field, its meridional drift, and the …
We aim to characterise the appearance and behaviour of a flare and filament ejection which occurred on 8th September 1999 and was observed by TRACE in L-alpha as well as by the Yohkoh Soft and Hard X-ray telescopes. We explore the flare energetics and its spatial and temporal evolution. A correction is applied to the TRACE data to obtain a better estimate of the pure L-alpha signature. The L-alpha power is obtained from a knowledge of the TRACE response function, and the flare electron energy budget is estimated by interpreting Yohkoh/HXT emission in the context of the collisional thick target…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11-year sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our ad…
We study the differences in the heavy ion composition of solar energetic particle (SEP) events between solar cycles 23 and 24. We have surveyed the SOHO/ERNE heavy ion data from the beginning of solar cycle 23 until the end of June 2015, that is, well into the declining phase of cycle 24. We used this long observation period to study the properties of heavy ions (from C to Fe) and to compare the two solar cycles in this respect. We surveyed the data for SEP events with enhancements in the Fe/C and Fe/O intensity ratios in the energy range 5-15 MeV per nucleon, and associated the events with so…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In this work, we consider the 5-to-6 year oscillations as derived both from sunspot and from solar magnetic dipole time series. Using the solar dynamo model, we deduced that these variations may be a manifestation of the dynamo nonlinearities and non-harmonic shape of the solar activity cycles. We conclude that the observed mid-term oscillations are related to th…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact. Nevertheless, the well-known difficulty is how to accurately predict, on the basis of various recorded solar activity indices, the complete evolution of future solar cycles, due to highly complex dynamical and stochastic processes involved, mainly related to interaction of different components of internal magnetic fields. There are two main distinct classes …
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $αΩ$ dynamo wave and flux transport dynamo models. Very different parameter values produce similar results, making it difficult to understand the origin of these solar cycle properties. We use GONG helioseismic data to investigate the progression of the solar cycle as observed in intermediate-degree global $p$-mode frequency shifts at different latitudes and subsurface layers, from the…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in the meridional circulation, which are believed to be responsible for irregularities of the solar cycle---are constrained by using observational data. We take the polar field near minima of the cycle as a measure of the randomness in the Babcock-Leighton process, and the decay rate near the minima as a consequence of the change in meridional circulation. We c…
By using the unique database of SOHO/MDI full disk magnetograms from 1996 September to 2011 January, covering the entire solar cycle 23, we analyze the time-variability of the solar magnetic flux spectrum and study the properties of extended minimum of cycle 23. We totally identify 11.5 million magnetic structures. It has been revealed that magnetic features with different magnetic fluxes exhibit different cycle behaviors. The magnetic features with flux larger than $4.0 \times 10^{19}$ Mx, which cover solar active regions and strong network features, show exactly the same variation as sunspot…
An accurate assessment of the Sun's angular momentum (AM) loss rate is an independent constraint for models that describe the rotation evolution of Sun-like stars. In-situ measurements of the solar wind taken by Parker Solar Probe (PSP), at radial distances of $\sim 28-55R_{\odot}$, are used to constrain the solar wind AM-loss rate. For the first time with PSP, this includes a measurement of the alpha particle contribution. The mechanical AM flux in the solar wind protons (core and beam), and alpha particles, is determined as well as the transport of AM through stresses in the interplanetary m…
The correlation between solar irradiance and the 11-year solar activity cycle is evident in the body of measurements made from space, which extend over the past four decades. Models relating variation in solar irradiance to photospheric magnetism have made significant progress in explaining most of the apparent trends in these observations. There are, however, persistent discrepancies between different measurements and models in terms of the absolute radiometry, secular variation and the spectral dependence of the solar cycle variability. We present an overview of solar irradiance measurements…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the maxima and minima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. We derived the time series of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected whole-spot areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA). From these smoothed time series we obtained the values of the maxima and minima, and the corresponding epochs…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1-24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best c…
We explore imprints of the solar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium on spectral properties of the backscattered solar Ly-alpha radiation. We employ newly developed effective model for the interstellar H atom velocity distribution function in the heliosphere (Katushkina and Izmodenov 2010, 2011). This model takes into account both global effects of H atom perturbations at the heliospheric boundaries and local (i.e. within 10-20 AU from the Sun) effects of the solar ionization, charge exchange, solar gravitation and radiation pressure. Backscattered solar Ly-alpha profiles and t…
Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-ph…
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and progress is slow. Schatten et al. (1978) suggested that the magnitude of the magnetic field in the polar regions of the sun near solar minimum could serve as a precursor for the evolution and amplitude of the following solar cycle. Since then, this idea has been the foundation of somewhat successful predictions of the size of the last four cycles, especially of th…
The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the relative sunspot number and though most of other indices are closely related, shifts are obtained between their peak activity of the order of 1-2 years. These shifts reveal a 22-yr pattern which can be attributed to solar interior or dynamo related processes. The minimum phase of cycle 23 is not found to be exceptional. Investigating the relative sunspot num…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough terms. In this article a forecast for the evolution of solar cycle 25 in terms of solar flares activity is presented. It is derived from an existing phenomenological model based on the coupling of an internal solar component and a planetary component. In addition to competent temporal resolution, the predictions are characterized by features which both differ…
For solar activity cycles 20 and 21 (1966-1985) the solar differential rotation has been investigated using Hα filaments and relatively small-scale long-lived magnetic features with negative and positive polarities. We used annual averaged angular velocities of quiescent Hα filaments from Hα photoheliograms of the Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory film collection and selected long-lived magnetic features from the McIntosh atlas (McIntosh, Willock, and Thompson, Atlas of Stackplots, NGDC, 1991). We have determined coefficients of Faye's formulas for Hα filaments as well as for long-lived mag…
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term p…
Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically investigate the correlations between valley phase and the forthcoming cycle. We find that the preceding valley phase may dominate and can be predictor of the forthcoming cycle: (1) The growth rate in ascend phase strongly negatively correlates to valley length and strongly positively correlates to cycle maximum. (2) The cycle maximum strongly negatively correlates to…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show that cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere, taking advantage of information about both the dipolar and quadrupolar moments of the solar magnetic field duri…
The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo mechanism. One of the problems when using these activity indices for some statistical analyses is the reliable determination of the maximum phases of different solar cycles which are generally characterized by a multi-peaked structure due to the presence of the so-called \emph {Gnevyshev gap}. The main aim of this work is to propose a general method, without the …
The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured respectively by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen $\&$ Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar Equator seems to decrease since cycle 10 onwards. The coefficient $B$ of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maxim…
We present observational signatures of solar cycle 25 onset. Those signatures are visibly following a migratory path from high to low latitudes. They had starting points that are asymmetrically offset in each hemisphere at times that are 21-22 years after the corresponding, same polarity, activity bands of solar cycle 23 started their migration. Those bands define the so-called "extended solar cycle." The four magnetic bands currently present in the system are approaching a mutually cancelling configuration, and solar minimum conditions are imminent. Further, using a tuned analysis of the dail…
We model the surface magnetic field and open flux of the Sun from 1913 to 1986 using a surface flux transport model, which includes the observed cycle-to-cycle variation of sunspot group tilts. The model reproduces the empirically derived time evolution of the solar open magnetic flux, and the reversal times of the polar fields. We find that both the polar field and the axial dipole moment resulting from this model around cycle minimum correlate with the strength of the following cycle.
The Ly-alpha line of He II at 304 Å is one of the spectral lines of choice for EUV channels of narrow-band imagers on board space telescopes, which provide spectacular intensity images of the outer solar atmosphere. Since the magnetic field information is encoded in the polarization of the spectral line radiation, it is important to investigate whether the He II line radiation from the solar disk can be polarized, along with its magnetic sensitivity. Here we report some theoretical predictions concerning the linear polarization signals produced by scattering processes in this strong emission l…
Parameters of a special kind of α-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates evidence the presence of the Babcock-Leighton α-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the α-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds the mean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numerical model for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magn…
Helioseismic data for solar cycles 23 and 24 have shown unequivocally that solar dynamics changes with solar activity. Changes in solar structure have been more difficult to detect. Basu & Mandel (2004) had claimed that the then available data revealed changes in the HeII ionization zone of the Sun. The amount of change, however, indicated the need for larger than expected changes in the magnetic fields. Now that helioseismic data spanning two solar cycles are available, we have redone the analysis using improved fitting techniques. We find that there is indeed a change in the region around th…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows predictions by assimilating the observed magnetic field on the surface. But the emergence of sunspot groups has the random properties, which make it impossible to accurately predict the solar cycle and also strongly limit the scope of cycle predictions. Hence we develop the scheme to investigate the predictability of the solar cycle over one cycle. When a cycle has be…
