Using neural networks as a prediction method, we attempt to demonstrate that forecasting of the Sun's sunspot time series can be extended to the spatial-temporal case. We employ this machine learning methodology to forecast not only in time but also in space (in this case the latitude) on a spatial-temporal dataset representing the solar sunspot diagram extending to a total of 142 years. The analysis shows that this approach seems to be able to reconstruct the overall qualitative aspects of the spatial-temporal series, namely the overall shape and amplitude of the latitude and time pattern of sunspots. This is, as far as we are aware, the first time neural networks have been used to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram, and although the results are limited in the quantitative prediction aspects, it points the way to use the full spatial-temporal series as opposed to just the time series for machine learning approaches to forecasting. Further to that, we use the method to predict that the upcoming Cycle 25 maximum sunspot number will be around $R_{25}=57 \pm 17$. This implies a very weak cycle and that it will be the weakest cycle on record.
We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruc…
Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes o…
Sunspot groups observed by Royal Greenwich Observatory/US Air Force/NOAA from May 1874 to November 2008 and the Carte Synoptique solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989 are used to investigate the relative phase shift of the paired wings of butterfly diagrams of sunspot and filament activities. Latitudinal migration of sunspot groups (or filaments) does asynchronously occur in the northern and southern hemispheres, and there is a relative phase shift between the paired wings of their butterfly diagrams in a cycle, making the paired wings spatially asymmetrical on the solar equator. It…
The original sunspot observations by Heinrich Samuel Schwabe of 1825-1867 were digitized and a first subset of spots was measured. In this initial project, we determined more than 14 000 sunspot positions and areas comprising about 11% of the total amount of spots available from that period. The resulting butterfly diagram has a typical appearance, but with evident north-south asymmetries.
The number of spots on the surface of the Sun is one of the best tracers of solar variability we have. The sunspot number is not only known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycles, but also to show variability on longer time scales. It is, however, not only the sunspot number that changes in connection with solar variability. The location of the spots on the solar surface is also known to change in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. This has traditionally been visualised in the so-called butterfly diagram, but this is only well constrained from the beginning of the 19th century. This…
We attempt to forecast the Sun's sunspot butterfly diagram in both space (i.e. in latitude) and time, instead of the usual one-dimensional time series forecasts prevalent in the scientific literature. We use a prediction method based on the non-linear embedding of data series in high dimensions. We use this method to forecast both in latitude (space) and in time, using a full spatial-temporal series of the sunspot diagram from 1874 to 2015. The analysis of the results shows that it is indeed possible to reconstruct the overall shape and amplitude of the spatial-temporal pattern of sunspots, bu…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to disruptions in satellite operations, telecommunications, electric power grids and air-traffic on polar routes. Forecasting the cycle of sunspots, however, has remained a challenging problem. We use reservoir computing -- a model-free, neural--network based machine-learning technique -- to forecast the upcoming solar cycle, sunspot cycle 25. The standard algorithm fo…
In order to match observed properties of the solar cycle, flux-transport dynamo models require the toroidal magnetic flux to be stored in a region of low magnetic diffusivity, typically located at or below the bottom of the convection zone. We infer the turbulent magnetic diffusivity affecting the toroidal field on the basis of empirical data. We consider the time evolution of mean latitude and width of the activity belts of solar cycles 12--23 and their dependence on cycle strength. We interpret the decline phase of the cycles as a diffusion process. The activity level of a given cycle begins…
Observations of the solar butterfly diagram from sunspot records suggest persistent fluctuation in parity, away from the overall, approximately dipolar structure. We use a simple mean-field dynamo model with a solar-like rotation law, and perturb the $α$-effect. We find that the parity of the magnetic field with respect to the rotational equator can demonstrate what we describe as resonant behaviour, while the magnetic energy behaves in a more or less expected way. We discuss possible applications of the phenomena in the context of various deviations of the solar magnetic field from dipolar sy…
Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar drawings by the 18--19th century observers Staudacher and Hamilton, we construct the solar butterfly diagram, i.e. the latitudinal distribution of sunspots in the 1790's. The sudden, systematic occurrence of sunspots at high solar latitudes in 1793--1796 unambiguously shows that a new cycle started in 1793, which was lost in traditional Wolf's sunspot series.…
Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a new type of solar event, the "terminator." Unlike the Sun's signature events, flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, the terminator most likely originates in the solar interior, at or near the tachocline. The terminator signals the end of a magnetic activity cycle at the Sun's equator and the start of a sunspot cycle at mid latitudes. Observations indicate that the time difference between these events is very short, less than a solar rotation, in the context of the sunspot cycle. As the (definitive) start and end point of solar activity cycles th…
Plages are the magnetically active chromospheric structures prominently visible in Ca $\scriptsize{\textrm{II}}$ K line (3933.67 Å). A plage may or may not be associated with a sunspot which is a magnetic structure visible in the solar photosphere. In this study we explore this aspect of association of plages with sunspots using the newly digitized Kodaikanal Ca $\scriptsize{\textrm{II}}$ K plage data and the Greenwich sunspot area data. Instead of using the plage index or fractional plage area and their comparison with the sunspot number, we use, to our knowledge for the first time, the indiv…
With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series forecasting methods. We employ a combination of WaveNet and LSTM neural networks to forecast the sunspot number using the years 1749 to 2019 and total sunspot area using the years 1874 to 2019 time series data for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Three other models involving the use of LSTMs and 1D ConvNets are also compared with our best model. Our analysis shows…
Since the discovery of solar cycle related with magnetic field in 1908, deep seated oscillatory dynamo has been studied extensively. However, there are still open questions on the solar dynamo, e.g., asymmetric conversion between large-scale poloidal and toroidal field as well as physics underlying the butterfly pattern of sunspots. Here we report a new generation of large-scale magnetic field and process of energy release. The inductive action of fluid motions pervading the solar interior is represented by a RLC circuit in which the toroidal field built up through twisting of poloidal field, …
The butterfly diagram of the solar cycle is the equatorward migration of the emergence latitudes of sunspots as the solar cycle evolves. Revealing the mechanism for the butterfly diagram is essential for understanding the solar and stellar dynamo. The equatorward meridional flow at the base of the convection zone (CZ) was believed to be responsible for the butterfly diagram. However, helioseismological studies indicate controversial forms of the flow, and even present poleward flow at the base of the CZ, which poses a big challenge to the widely accepted mechanism. This motivates us to propose…
The anomalous heating of the solar upper atmosphere is one of the eight key problems in modern astronomy. Moreover, the stratification of the solar atmosphere is an outstanding key-problem in solar physics. In this study, a hot butterfly-like pattern is found to run through the chromosphere to the corona lying right on top of the magnetic butterfly pattern of sunspots in the photosphere. We thus propose to introduce the term butterfly body to describe the butterfly diagram in the 3-dimensional atmosphere. Besides, we discuss the so-called polar brightening in different layers. It is found to b…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models. The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles 19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time…
In 1844 Schwabe discovered that the number of sunspots increased and decreased over a period of about 11 years, that variation became known as the sunspot cycle. Almost eighty years later, Hale described the nature of the Sun's magnetic field, identifying that it takes about 22 years for the Sun's magnetic polarity to cycle. It was also identified that the latitudinal distribution of sunspots resembles the wings of a butterfly showing migration of sunspots in each hemisphere that abruptly start at mid-latitudes towards the Sun's equator over the next 11 years. These sunspot patterns were shown…
Forecasting the strength of the sunspot cycle is highly important for many space weather applications. Our previous studies have shown the importance of sunspot number variability in the declining phase of the current 11-year sunspot cycle to predict the strength of the next cycle when the minimum of the current cycle has been observed. In this study we continue this approach and show that we can remove the limitation of having to know the minimum epoch of the current cycle, and that we can already provide a forecast of the following cycle strength in the early stage of the declining phase of …
Sunspot numbers exhibit large short-timescale (daily-monthly) variation in addition to longer timescale variation due to solar cycles. A formal statistical framework is presented for estimating and forecasting randomness in sunspot numbers on top of deterministic (including chaotic) models for solar cycles. The Fokker-Planck approach formulated assumes a specified long-term or secular variation in sunspot number over an underlying solar cycle via a driver function. The model then describes the observed randomness in sunspot number on top of this driver function. We consider a simple harmonic c…
The solar activity in Cycle 23--24 shows differences from the previous cycles that were observed with modern instruments, e.g. long cycle duration and a small number of sunspots. To appreciate the anomalies further, we investigated the prominence eruptions and disappearances observed with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph during over 20 years. Consequently, we found that the occurrence of the prominence activities in the northern hemisphere is normal because the period of the number variation is 11 years and the migration of the producing region of the prominence activities traces the migration of …
The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic variation in number, first noted 175 years ago, stimulates community-wide interest to this day. A large number of techniques are able to explain the temporal landmarks, (geometric) shape, and amplitude of sunspot "cycles," however forecasting these features accurately in advance remains elusive. Recent observationally-motivated studies have illustrated a relati…
We study the latitudinal distribution and evolution of sunspot areas from Solar Cycle 12 to Solar Cycle 23 (SC12-SC23) and sunspot-groups of from Solar Cycle 8 to Solar Cycle 23 (SC8-SC23) for even and odd cycles. The Rician distribution is the best-fit function for both even and odd sunspots group latitudinal occurrence. The mean and variance for even northern/southern butterfly wing sunspots are 14.94/14.76 and 58.62/56.08, respectively, and the mean and variance for odd northern/southern wing sunspots are 15.52/15.58 and 61.77/58.00, respectively. Sunspot groups of even cycle wings are thus…
The century-long (1907-2007) Ca II K spectroheliograms from Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KSO) are calibrated, processed and analysed in the present study to follow the evolution of bright on disc structures called plages, the possible representatives of magnetic activity on the Sun. This has been the longest dataset studied in Ca II K till date covering about 9.5 cycles of 11 year periods. Plages were segmented with area $\geq 1\:\textrm {arcmin}^2$ using global thresholds for individual full disc images and subsequent application of morphological closing operation. Plage index was calculated…
During the solar magnetic activity cycle the emergence latitudes of sunspots change, leading to the well-known butterfly diagram. This phenomenon is poorly understood for other stars as starspot latitudes are generally unknown. The related changes in starspot rotation rates caused by latitudinal differential rotation can however be measured. Using the set of 3093 Kepler stars with activity cycles identified by Reinhold et al. (2017), we aim to study the temporal change in starspot rotation rates over magnetic activity cycles, and how this relates to the activity level, mean rotation rate, and …
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic field evolution models for the Sun's surface and interior we perform the first century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble …
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows …
Filaments and coronal holes, two principal features observed in the solar corona are sources of space weather variations. Filament formation is closely associated with polarity inversion lines (PIL) on the solar photosphere which separate positive and negative polarities of the surface magnetic field. The origin of coronal holes is governed by large-scale unipolar magnetic patches on the photosphere from where open magnetic field lines extend to the heliosphere. We study properties of filaments, PILs and coronal holes in solar cycles 20, 21, 22 and 23 utilizing the McIntosh archive. We detect …
Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term p…
The forecast method introduced by Korsós et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic neutral line of an active region. This novel approach is not limited to searching for the largest GM of two single spots as in previous methods. Instead, the pre-flare conditions of the evolution of spot groups is captured by the introduction of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient, or W_GM. This new proxy enables the potential of forecasting flares stronger th…
We previously identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place over a very short time and perhaps in a time as short as a single solar rotation. Further, we inferred that the transition observed was a critical moment for the Sun's global-scale magnetic field as it was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping magnetic systems belonging to the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle ter…
The long-term variability of the sunspot cycle, as recorded by the Wolf numbers, are imprinted in different kinds of statistical relations which relate the cycle amplitudes, duration and shapes. This subject always gets a special attention because it is important for the solar activity forecast. We discuss statistical properties of the mean-field dynamo model with the fluctuating α-effect. Also, we estimate dynamical properties of the model for the long and short time-scale and compare it with the dynamics of the sunspot numbers data sets.
Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to the sunspot and irradiance (proxy for the sunspot) data for the years 1700-2008. We find that:(i) amplitude and frequency (or period of $\sim$11 yr) of the sinusoidal part remain constant for all the solar cycles; (ii) the amplitude of the transient part is phase locked with the phase of the sinusoidal part; (iii) for all the cycles, the period and decay fac…
A striking feature of the solar cycle is that at the beginning, sunspots appear around mid-latitudes, and over time the latitudes of emergences migrate towards the equator.The maximum level of activity (e.g., sunspot number) varies from cycle to cycle.For strong cycles, the activity begins early and at higher latitudes with wider sunspot distributions than for weak cycles. The activity and the width of sunspot belts increase rapidly and begin to decline when the belts are still at high latitudes. Surprisingly, it has been reported that in the late stages of the cycle the level of activity (sun…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available relatively recently. In this paper, we present an investigation of effects of short observational data series on accuracy of solar cycle prediction. This analysis is performed using the annual sunspot number time-series applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model and employing the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method. The testing of the …
According to the scheme of action of the solar dynamo, the poloidal magnetic field can be considered a source of production of the toroidal magnetic field by the solar differential rotation. From the polar magnetic field proxies, it is natural to expect that solar Cycle 25 will be weak as recorded in sunspot data. We suggest that there are parameters of the zonal harmonics of the solar surface magnetic field, such as the magnitude of the $\ell$=3 harmonic or the effective multipole index, that can be used as a reasonable addition to the polar magnetic field proxies. We discuss also some specif…
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), the highly energetic particles that may raise critical health issues for astronauts in space, are modulated by solar activity with their intensity lagging behind the sunspot number (SSN) variation by about one year. Previously, this lag has been attributed to a combined effect of outward convecting solar wind and inward propagating GCRs. However, the lag's amplitude and its solar-cycle dependence are still not fully understood (Ross & Chaplin, 2019). By investigating the solar surface magnetic field, we find that the source of heliospheric magnetic field -- the ope…
Polar Filaments Capture High Latitude Solar Poloidal Field Interactions and can Foretell the Future Sunspot Cycle Amplitude before Polar Field Precursors
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology d…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components derived from synoptic magnetograms are assimilated, using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, into a mean-field dynamo model based on Parker's migratory dynamo theory complemented by magnetic helicity conservation. It was found that the predicted toroidal field is in good agreement with observations for almost the entire following solar cycle. However, pol…
It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these …
Temporal variations in the Suns internal velocity field with a periodicity of about 11 years have been observed over the last four decades. The period of these torsional oscillations and their latitudinal propagation roughly coincides with the period and equatorward propagation of sunspots which originate from a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism operating in the Suns interior. While the solar differential rotation plays an important role in this dynamo mechanism by inducting the toroidal component of magnetic field, the impact of torsional oscillations on the dynamo mechanism and hence the …
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short timescale create space weather, slow long-term modulation forms the basis of space climate. Space weather impacts diverse space-reliant technologies while space climate influences planetary atmospheres and climate. Having prior knowledge of the Sun's activity is important in these contexts. However, forecasting solar-stellar magnetic activity has remained an outst…
The solar activity in the current, that is, the 24-th, sunspot cycle is analyzed. Cyclic variations in the sunspot number (SSN) and radiation fluxes in various spectral ranges have been estimated in comparison with the general level of the solar radiation, which is traditionally determined by the radio emission flux $F_ {10.7} $ at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz). The comparative analysis of the variations in the solar constant and solar indices in the UV range, which are important for modeling the state of the Earth's atmosphere, in the weak 24th cycle and strong 22nd and 23rd cycles showed…
Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts have been made quite effectively. Such corotation forecasts are well studied with decades of observations from STEREO and near-Earth spacecrafts. Forecast accuracy depends upon the latitudinal separation (or offset $Δθ$) between source and spacecraft, forecast lead time ($Δt$) and the solar cycle via the sunspot number (SSN). The precise dependencies factorin…
Recovery of the Solar Cycle from Maunder-like Grand Minima Episodes: A Quantification of the Necessary Polar Flux Threshold through Solar Dynamo Simulations
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar…
In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time series. We characterise the predictive power of the proposed methodology in a causal manner by an incremental incorporation of past solar cycles to the available data base. In regressing maximum cycle intensity to curvature at the leading minimum we obtain a correlation coefficient R \approx 0.91 and for the upcoming Cycle 24 a forecast of 78 (90% confidence int…
