arXiv 1709.017302017-09-06astro-ph.SR

非位势日冕边界条件对太阳风预报的影响

Impact of Non-potential Coronal Boundary Conditions on Solar Wind Prediction

Marion Weinzierl, Francois-X. Bocquet, Anthony R. Yeates

摘要：

预测地球上的太阳风是空间天气预测的一个核心方面。然而，这种预测的结果对计算日冕中磁场的方法非常敏感。我们分析的影响，取代势场日冕边界条件，在业务空间天气预测工具，由非潜在的条件。为此，我们比较预测的太阳风等离子体参数与观测在1 AU的两个6个月的时间间隔，一个在太阳最大和一个在当前周期的下降阶段。作为一个基线，我们比较与操作Wang-Sheeley-Arge模型。我们发现，对于太阳极大，非势日冕模型和适应太阳风速度公式导致最好的太阳风的预测在统计意义上。对于下降相，势冠模型表现最好。Wang-Sheeley-Arge模型在预测高速增强和流注相互作用方面优于其他模型。改进后的风速公式参数拟合效果较好，有望提高非势流模型的性能。

英文摘要：

Predictions of the solar wind at Earth are a central aspect of space weather prediction. The outcome of such a prediction, however, is highly sensitive to the method used for computing the magnetic field in the corona. We analyze the impact of replacing the potential field coronal boundary conditions, as used in operational space weather prediction tools, by non-potential conditions. For this, we compare the predicted solar wind plasma parameters with observations at 1 AU for two six-months intervals, one at solar maximum and one in the descending phase of the current cycle. As a baseline, we compare with the operational Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. We find that for solar maximum, the non-potential coronal model and an adapted solar wind speed formula lead to the best solar wind predictions in a statistical sense. For the descending phase, the potential coronal model performs best. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge model outperforms the others in predicting high speed enhancements and streamer interactions. A better parameter fitting for the adapted wind speed formula is expected to improve the performance of the non-potential model here.

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摘要：

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