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arXiv 1702.06183astro-ph.SR
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使用直接校准和"主干"方法对1739年以来太阳黑子群数的新重建

New reconstruction of the sunspot group number since 1739 using the direct calibration and "backbone" methods

Theodosios Chatzistergos, Ilya G. Usoskin, Gennady A. Kovaltsov, Natalie A. Krivova, Sami K. Solanki

摘要:

太阳黑子数系列是提供太阳活动信息的最长的仪器天文学数据库。它是许多个体观测者观测的汇编,它们的相互校准通常使用线性重新标度进行。有多个已发表的系列显示了太阳活动的不同长期趋势。我们的目标是生产GSN系列,具有非线性非参数校准。唯一的基本假设是,不同系列之间的差异是由于观察者的不同敏锐度阈值,并且每个观察者的阈值在整个观察期间保持不变。我们使用一个菊花链的过程与骨干(BB)观察员和校准所有重叠的观察员。每个单独的观察者的校准是用概率分布函数(PDF)矩阵进行的,该矩阵是考虑与BB重叠期间的所有每日值而构建的。BB的校准以类似的方式进行。误差的传播用蒙特卡罗模拟建模。最后一个系列可以追溯到1739年,包括来自314个观察者的数据。这表明在18世纪和19世纪期间太阳活动处于中等水平,这明显低于其他最近使用线性回归重建预测的太阳活动水平。新的系列提供了一个强大的重建,基于现代和非参数方法,自1739年以来的太阳黑子群的数量,它证实了现代太阳活动极大期在20世纪下半叶的存在。

英文摘要:

Group sunspot number (GSN) series constitute the longest instrumental astronomical database providing information on solar activity. It is a compilation of observations by many individual observers, and their inter-calibration has usually been performed using linear rescaling. There are multiple published series that show different long-term trends for solar activity. We aim at producing a GSN series, with a non-linear non-parametric calibration. The only underlying assumptions are that the differences between the various series are due to different acuity thresholds of the observers, and that the threshold of each observer remains constant throughout the observing period. We use a daisy chain process with backbone (BB) observers and calibrate all overlapping observers to them. The calibration of each individual observer is performed with a probability distribution function (PDF) matrix, constructed considering all daily values for the overlapping period with the BB. The calibration of the BBs is done in a similar manner. Propagation of errors is modelled with Monte Carlo simulations. The final series extends back to 1739 and includes data from 314 observers. It suggests moderate activity during the 18th and 19th century, which is significantly lower than the high level of solar activity predicted by other recent reconstructions applying linear regressions. The new series provides a robust reconstruction, based on modern and non-parametric methods, of sunspot group numbers since 1739, and it confirms the existence of the Modern grand maximum of solar activity in the second half of the 20th century.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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