1845-2014年太阳黑子数数据合成的评估
An Assessment of Sunspot Number Data Composites over 1845-2014
摘要：
新的太阳黑子数据组合，其中一些在其长期变化的特征上完全不同，在1845-2014年期间进行了评估。相对于现代数据，通常用于校准历史太阳黑子数据的方法是“菊花链”，即校准从一个数据子集传递到相邻的数据子集，通常使用数据子集重叠间隔的回归。最近的研究表明，这些回归存在严重的缺陷，随着数据序列的时间推移，重复使用这些回归会加剧由此产生的错误。因此，Usoskin等人（2016）最近的复合数据系列$R_{UEA}$是一个非常重要的进步，因为它避免了回归，菊花链和其他常见但无效的假设：这是通过比较“活跃日”分数的统计数据与单个参考数据集的统计数据来实现的。我们研究了六个太阳黑子数据系列，包括$R_{UEA}$和新的“骨干”数据系列$R_{BB}$，最近由Svalgaard和Schatten（2016）通过回归和菊花链生成。我们表明，所有六个可以使用一个连续性模型来再现1845-2014年开放的太阳通量变化的主要特征，从地磁活动数据重建。然而，可以确定一些差异，这些差异与使用一篮子其他太阳磁场代理的测试一致。使用数据从各种太阳黑子观测，我们说明了问题，在$R_{BB}$的方法，导致它越来越高估太阳黑子的数量回去的时间，我们建议使用$R_{UEA}$，因为它采用更强大的程序，避免这样的问题。
英文摘要：
New sunspot data composites, some of which are radically different in the character of their long-term variation, are evaluated over the interval 1845-2014. The method commonly used to calibrate historic sunspot data, relative to modern-day data, is "daisy-chaining", whereby calibration is passed from one data subset to the neighbouring one, usually using regressions of the data subsets for the intervals of their overlap. Recent studies have illustrated serious pitfalls in these regressions and the resulting errors can be compounded by their repeated use as the data sequence is extended back in time. Hence the recent composite data series by Usoskin et al. (2016), $R_{UEA}$, is a very important advance because it avoids regressions, daisy-chaining and other common, but invalid, assumptions: this is achieved by comparing the statistics of "active day" fractions to those for a single reference dataset. We study six sunspot data series including $R_{UEA}$ and the new "backbone" data series $R_{BB}$, recently generated by Svalgaard and Schatten (2016) by employing both regression and daisy-chaining. We show that all six can be used with a continuity model to reproduce the main features of the open solar flux variation for 1845-2014, as reconstructed from geomagnetic activity data. However, some differences can be identified that are consistent with tests using a basket of other proxies for solar magnetic fields. Using data from a variety of sunspot observers, we illustrate problems with the method employed in $R_{BB}$ which cause it to increasingly overestimate sunspot numbers going back in time and we recommend using $R_{UEA}$ because it employs more robust procedures that avoid such problems.
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