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arXiv 1608.05261astro-ph.SRphysics.data-an
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太阳黑子数的不确定性:估计和意义

Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation and Implications

Thierry Dudok de Wit, Laure Lefèvre, Frédéric Clette

摘要:

太阳黑子数序列受到各种不确定性的影响,这些不确定性仍然知之甚少。最近,国际太阳黑子数的重大改变突出了更好地了解它们的必要性[Clette等人,空间科学评论,2014年]。我们提出了第一次彻底估计这些不确定性,表现为泊松随机变量的乘法系数是时间和观测依赖。我们为这些不确定性提供了一个简单的表达式,并揭示了它们在时间上的演变如何与观测和数据处理的变化相吻合。了解它们的值对于正确地从多个观测值中构建复合数据以及保持复合数据的稳定性至关重要。

英文摘要:

Sunspot number series are subject to various uncertainties, which are still poorly known. The need for their better understanding was recently highlighted by the major makeover of the international Sunspot Number [Clette et al., Space Science Reviews, 2014]. We present the first thorough estimation of these uncertainties, which behave as Poisson-like random variables with a multiplicative coefficient that is time- and observatory-dependent. We provide a simple expression for these uncertainties, and reveal how their evolution in time coincides with changes in the observations, and processing of the data. Knowing their value is essential for properly building composites out of multiple observations, and for preserving the stability of the composites in time.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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