Leif Svalgaard
We review the evidence for the argument that Rudolf Wolf's calibration of the Sunspot Number is likely to be correct and that Max Waldmeier introduced an upwards jump in the sunspot number in 1945. The combined effect of these adjustments suggests that there has been no secular change in the sunspot number since coming out of the Maunder Minimum ~1700.
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Long-lived sunspots in historical records: a case study analysis from 1660 to 1676
本研究分析1660-1676年历史太阳黑子观测数据，反演其面积与坐标，修正了蒙德极小期长寿命黑子相关对流假说，厘清观测定义与目的，并发现历史黑子自转特征与现代长寿命黑子群相似。
A simple method to detect inconsistencies in low annual sunspot numbers based on the relationship between these values and the annual number of active days is described. The analysis allowed for the detection of problems in the annual sunspot number series clustered in a few specific periods and unambiguous, namely: i) before Maunder minimum, ii) the year 1652 during the Maunder minimum, iii) the year 1741 in Solar Cycle -1, and iv) the so-called "lost" solar cycle in 1790s and subsequent onset of the Dalton Minimum.
Sunspot positions from various historical sets of solar drawings are analysed with respect to the tilt angles of bipolar sunspot groups. Data by Scheiner, Hevelius, Staudacher, Zucconi, Schwabe, and Spoerer deliver a series of average tilt angles spanning a period of 270 years, additional to previously found values for 20th-century data obtained by other authors. We find that the average tilt angles before the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from the modern values. However, the average tilt angles of a period 50 years after the Maunder minimum, namely for cycles 0 and 1, were …
Sunspot numbers are important tracers of historical solar activity. They are important in the prediction of oncoming solar maximum, in the design of lifetimes of space assets, and in assessing the extent of solar-radiation impact on the space environment. Sunspot numbers were obtained visually from sunspot drawings. The availability of digital images from the US Air Force Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON) prototype telescope concurrent to observer-dependent sunspot numbers recorded at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) has provided a basis for comparing sunspot numbers determi…
Empirical flare energy limits for the largest historical sunspots
通过统计关系估算太阳爆发能量上限，发现太阳可能产生几10^34 erg的爆发能量。
Context. Systematic observations of magnetic field strength and polarity in sunspots began at Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), USA in early 1917. Except for a few brief interruptions, this historical dataset continues till present. Aims. The sunspot field strength and polarity observations are critical in our project of reconstructing the solar magnetic field over the last hundred years. Here we provide a detailed description of the newly digitized dataset of drawings of sunspot magnetic field observations. Methods. The digitization of MWO drawings is based on a software package develope d by u…
To investigate the relation between observations of the 10.7 cm flux and the international sunspot number so that a physical unit may be ascribed to historical records, both polynomial and power law models are developed giving the radio flux as a function of sunspot number and vice versa. Bayesian data analysis is used to estimate the model parameters and to discriminate between the models. The effect on the parameter uncertainty and on the relative evidence of normalizing the measure of fit is investigated. The power law giving flux as a function of sunspot number is found to be the most plau…
Based on the Chinese historical sunspots drawings, a data set consisting of the scanned images and all their digitized parameters from 1925 to 2015 have been constructed. In this paper, we briefly describe the developmental history of sunspots drawings in China. This paper describes the preliminary processing processes that strat from the initial data (inputing to the scanning equipment) to the parameters extraction, and finally summarizes the general features of this dataset. It is the first systematic project in Chinese solar-physics community that the historical observation of sunspots draw…
The long-term solar variability, as reconstructed from historical sources: Several case studies in the 17th -- 18th centuries
本文梳理17至18世纪历史太阳黑子观测档案，更新蒙德极小期太阳黑子群的活动日比例与位置，为百年尺度太阳活动重建提供基础数据。
Records of sunspots and aurora observations in pre-telescopic historical documents can provide useful information about solar activity in the past. This is also true for extreme space weather events, as they may have been recorded as large sunspots observed by the naked eye or as low-latitude auroras. In this paper, we present the results of a comprehensive survey of records of sunspots and auroras in the Songshi, a Chinese formal chronicle spanning the tenth to the thirteenth century. This chronicle contains a record of continuous observations with well-formatted reports conducted as a policy…
Recent studies of radioisotopes in tree rings or ice cores suggest that extreme space weather events occurred in the pre-telescope age. Observational records of naked-eye sunspots and low-latitude auroras in historical documents in pre-telescopic age can provide useful information on past solar activity. In this paper, we present the results of a comprehensive survey of records of sunspots and auroras in Chinese official histories from the 6th century to the 10th century, in the period of Suí, Táng, the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms. These official histories contain records of continuous obs…
We review some applications of the method of electronic searching for historical observations of sunspots and aurorae in the Chinese text corpus by Hayakawa et al. etc. However, we show strong shortcomings in the digital search technique as applied by them: almost all likely true sunspot and aurora records were presented before (e.g. Xu et al. 2000), which is not mentioned in those papers; the remaining records are dubious and often refer to other phenomena, neither spots nor aurorae (this also applies to Hayakawa et al. 2017c). Most of the above publications include very few Chinese texts and…
Daily records of sunspot group areas compiled by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, from May of 1874 through 1976 indicate a curious history for the penumbral areas of the smaller sunspot groups. On average, the ratio of penumbral area to umbral area in a sunspot group increases from 5 to 6 as the total sunspot group area increases from 100 to 2000 microHem (a microHem is a millionth the area of a solar hemisphere). This relationship does not vary substantially with sunspot group latitude or with the phase of the sunspot cycle. However, for the sunspot groups with total areas <100 microHem, thi…
A sunspot catalogue was published by the Coimbra Astronomical Observatory (Portugal), now named Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory of the University of Coimbra, for the period 1929-1941. We digitalized data included in that catalogue and provide a machine-readable version. We show the reconstructions for the (total and hemispheric) sunspot number index and sunspot area according to this catalogue, comparing it with the sunspot number index (version 2) and Balmaceda sunspot area series (Balmaceda et al., J. Geophys. Res. 114, A07104, 2009). Moreover, we also compared the Coimbra catalogue…
The newly revised sunspot number series allows for placing historical geoeffective storms in the context of several hundred years of solar activity. Using statistical analyses of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray observations from the past ~30 years and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) catalog (1996-present), we present sunspot-number-dependent flare and CME rates. In particular, we present X-ray flare rates as a function of sunspot number for the past three cycles. We a…
Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes o…
Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by …
The historical Hungarian auroral record extends from 1523 to 1960 and is longer than the sunspot record. Harmonic analysis reveals four major multidecadal secular cycles forming an approximate harmonic set at periods of 42.85, 57.13, 85.7 and 171.4 years. These four frequencies are very close to the four major heliospheric oscillations relative to the center of mass of the solar system caused by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Similar frequencies are found in solar radiation models based on long cosmogenic isotope records (Steinhilber et al. 2012) and in long records of naked-eye sunspot …
Chinese Sunspot Drawings and Their Digitization-(VIII) Release of a Machine Readable Parameters Catalog
发布经系统修订和人工验证的中国天文台历史太阳黑子绘图数字目录，包含黑子数、黑子群数和面积测量，与国际数据对比显示强相关性，确认其可靠性。
We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal SN and GN re-construction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various p…
Records of observations of sunspots and auroras in pre-telescopic historical documents provide useful information about past solar activity both in long-term trends and short-term space weather events. In this study, we present the results of a comprehensive survey of the records of sunspots and aurora candidates in the Yuánshǐ and Míngshǐ, Chinese Official Histories spanning 1261-1368 and 1368-1644, based on continuous observations with well-formatted reportds conducted by contemporary professional astronomers. We then provide a brief comparison of these data with Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)…
Early telescopic observations of sunspots were conducted with instruments of relatively small aperture. These instruments also suffered from a higher level of scattered light, and the human eye served as a "detector". The eye's ability to resolve small details depends on image contrast, and on average the intensity variations smaller than $\approx$ 3\% contrast relative to background are not detected even if they are resolved by the telescope. Here we study the effect of these three parameters (telescope aperture, scattered light, and detection threshold of human vision) on sunspot number, gro…
The recalibration of the sunspot number series, the primary long-term record of the solar cycle, requires the recovery of the entire collection of raw sunspot counts collected by the Zurich Observatory for the production of this index between 1849 and 1980. Here, we report about the major progresses accomplished recently in the construction of this global digital sunspot number database, and we derive global statistics of all the individual observers and professional observatories who provided sunspot data over more than 130 years. First, we can announce the full recovery of long-lost source-d…
The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records from a number of different observatories are available. These, however, show systematic differences and often have significants gaps. Our goal is to obtain a uniform and complete sunspot area time series by combining different data sets. A homogeneus composite of sunspot areas is essential for different applications in solar physics, among others for irradia…
Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO) was founded during World War II by the "Deutsche Luftwaffe" (German Airforces) as one station of a network of observatories, which should provide information on solar activity in order to better assess the actual conditions of the Earth's ionosphere in terms of radio wave propagation. The solar observations began in 1943 with photographs of the photosphere, drawings of sunspots, plage regions and faculae, as well as patrol observations of the solar corona. At the beginning all data was sent to Freiburg (Germany). After WWII international cooperation was established…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with information from other sources, such as precursor and/or dynamo models. The forecasting is illustrated in application to two historical cycles (cycles 19 and 20), and then to the current solar cycle (cycle 24). The new method allows the prediction of quantiles, i.e. the probability that the sunspot number falls outside large or small bounds at a given future time…
Aims. Historical records provide evidence of extreme magnetic storms with equatorward auroral extensions before the epoch of systematic magnetic observations. One significant magnetic storm occurred on February 15, 1730. We scale this magnetic storm with auroral extension and contextualise it based on contemporary solar activity. Methods. We examined historical records in East Asia and computed the magnetic latitude (MLAT) of observational sites to scale magnetic storms. We also compared them with auroral records in Southern Europe. We examined contemporary sunspot observations to reconstruct …
The solar cycle periodically reshapes the magnetic structure and radiative output of the Sun and determines its impact on the heliosphere roughly every 11 years. Besides this main periodicity, it shows century-long variations (including periods of abnormally low solar activity called grand minima). The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) has generated significant interest as the archetype of a grand minimum in magnetic activity for the Sun and other stars, suggesting a potential link between the Sun and changes in terrestrial climate. Recent reanalyses of sunspot observations have yielded a conflicted…
Large sunspots can be observed with the unaided eye under suitable atmospheric seeing conditions. Such observations are of particular value because the frequency of their appearance provides an approximate indication of the prevailing level of solar activity. Unaided-eye sunspot (UES) observations can be traced back well before the start of telescopic observations of the Sun, especially in the East Asian historical records. It is therefore important to compare more modern, UES observations with the results of telescopic sunspot observations, to gain a better understanding of the nature of the …
The $F_{10.7cm}$ radio flux and the Sunspot Number are the most widely used long-term indices of solar activity. They are strongly correlated, which led to the publication of many proxy relations allowing to convert one index onto the other. However, those existing proxies show significant disagreements, in particular at low solar activity. Our aim is to bring a global clarification of those many issues. We compute new polynomial regressions up to degree 4, in order to obtain a more accurate proxy. We also study the role of temporal averaging on the regression, and we investigate the issue of …
We investigated the Korean records of naked-eye sunspot observations and found an implication of periodicity of about 200-year. Adding the Chinese records we showed that the historical naked-eye sunspot observations have the similar periodicity. Recent some works showed that there would be no intrinsic periodicities except 11-year cycle. We adopt the new approach called samplogram to test sampling stability of cycles in terms of power spectra and difference series and show that the Suess/de Vries cycle of about 207-year is a deterministic cycle of the stochastic solar activity. Also we show th…
The focus of this study is to reveal the reason behind a scale problem detected around 1849 in the historical version of the International Sunspot Number Series, i.e. version 1 (Leussu et al, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 559, A28, 2013; Friedli, Solar Phys.291, 2505, 2016). From 1826 to 1848 Heinrich Schwabe's observations were considered primary by Rudolf Wolf, and a shift of primary observer from Schwabe to Wolf in 1849 seems to have led to an inconsistency in the Sunspot Number series. In this study we benefited from various datasets, the most important being Schwabe's raw counts from the Mi…
We present the result of the survey of sunspots and auroras in ${\it Q\bar{\imath}ngsh\check{\imath}ga\check{o}}$, the draft chronicle of ${\it Q\bar{\imath}ng}$ dynasty, for the period of 1559-1912 CE, as a sequel of the series of works surveying historical sunspot and aurora records, and providing online data to the scientific community regarding the attained results. In total of this ${\it Q\bar{\imath}ngsh\check{\imath}ga\check{o}}$ survey, we found 111 records of night-sky luminous events with the keywords such as vapor (${\it q\grave{\imath}}$), cloud (${\it y\acute{u}n}$), and light (${…
Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently, Krivova et al., 2007 reconstructed, using suitable models, the total solar irradiance from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present, based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the long historical record of the sunspot numbers using a simple but consistent physical model. There are many classes …
Reconstruction of pretelescopic and early telescopic solar activity cycles from auroral records
本研究利用蒙特卡洛模拟从低纬度极光稀疏记录中重建太阳活动周，提出可靠重建的条件，并重建了1560-1640年间8个活动周，与放射性核素重建和黑子观测总体吻合。
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