基于极光记录重建望远镜发明前及早期望远镜时期的太阳活动周期
Reconstruction of pretelescopic and early telescopic solar activity cycles from auroral records
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究利用蒙特卡洛模拟从低纬度极光稀疏记录中重建太阳活动周，提出可靠重建的条件，并重建了1560-1640年间8个活动周，与放射性核素重建和黑子观测总体吻合。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
历史记录中的低纬度极光，本质上是对最大空间天气事件（SWEs）的一种采样稀疏的记录。由于事件发生率低，且空间天气事件发生的太阳活动周轮廓与太阳黑子数的变化并不紧密吻合，利用这些记录来识别单个太阳活动周受到阻碍。基于近期关于大型空间天气事件发生率随太阳活动周变化的研究，我们在此构建了大量活动周的蒙特卡洛模拟，以确定从稀疏记录中推断潜在太阳活动周特征的最优程序。我们发现，当长期平均事件发生率（导致低纬度极光出现的空间天气事件的年平均数）达到或超过约3时，可以可靠地重建活动周相位（超过90%的重建极小值对应于实际极小值，误差在±2年以内）。这一条件在早期现代活跃期（EMAP）的大部分时间内得到满足，该时期是介于斯波勒极小期和蒙德极小期之间长达一个世纪的正常太阳活动期。为了对EMAP中的太阳活动周进行编号，我们引入了“望远镜时代”，其中T$n$表示从第一个望远镜观测到的活动周T$0$（始于1610年）起的第n个活动周。利用我们的最优程序，我们重建了从T$-5$到T$2$（1560-1640年）的一系列8个太阳活动周。从1540年开始的更早活动周可以以稍低的可靠性重建。将我们的结果与基于放射性核素的重建和太阳黑子观测进行比较，我们发现总体对应良好，但蒙德极小期之前的最后一个活动周除外。
英文摘要
The historical record of low-latitude aurorae is essentially a poorly sampled record of the largest space weather events (SWEs). Its use for the identification of individual solar cycles is hindered by the low event rate and by the fact that the solar cycle profile of the occurrence of SWEs does not closely follow the variation of sunspot numbers. Based on recent studies of the solar cycle dependence of the occurrence rates of large SWEs, here we construct Monte-Carlo simulations of a large number of activity cycles to identify the optimal procedure to infer the characteristics of underlying solar cycles from the sparse record. We find that a reliable reconstruction of the cycle phase ($>90$% of reconstructed minima corresponding to actual minima within $\pm 2$ years) is possible whenever the long-term mean event rate (annual mean number of space weather events resulting in low-latitude auroral sightings) reaches or exceeds a value around 3. This condition is found to be satisfied during most of the the Early Modern Active Period (EMAP), a century-long period of normal solar activity between the Spörer and Maunder Minima. For the numbering of solar cycles in the EMAP we introduce the "telescopic era", where T$n$ denotes the $n$th cycle from the first telescopically observed cycle, T$0$, ongoing in 1610. Using our optimal procedure we reconstruct a series of 8 solar activity cycles from T$-5$ to T$2$ (1560-1640). Earlier cycles starting from 1540 can be reconstructed with a somewhat lower degree of reliability. Comparing our results with radionuclide-based reconstructions and sunspot observations we find a good overall correspondence, with the exception of the last cycle before the Maunder Minimum.
发表机构
- ELTE Eötvös Loránd University（布达佩斯厄特沃什·罗兰大学）
- Institute for Space–Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University（名古屋大学宇宙地球环境研究所）
- Institute for Advanced Research, Nagoya University（名古屋大学高等研究院）
- Space Physics and Operations Division, RAL Space, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory（英国科学与技术设施委员会卢瑟福阿普尔顿实验室RAL空间物理与操作部）
- Astro-Glaciology Laboratory, Riken Nishina Centre（理化学研究所西村中心天体冰川学实验室）
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