44 pages with 16 figures and 167 references, chapter in "Epilepsy: The Intersection of Neurosciences, Mathematics, and Engineering",Taylor & Francis Group, Ivan Osorio, Mark G. Frei, Hitten Zaveri, Susan Arthurs, eds (2010)
发表信息：
chapter in "Epilepsy: The Intersection of Neurosciences, Biology, Mathematics, Physics and Engineering'', Editors: Osorio I., Zaveri H.P., Frei M.G., Arthurs S., CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, pp. 203-237 (2010)
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particularly powerful in describing earthquake phenomenology and which, we think, has a promising future in epileptology. The so-called self-exciting Hawkes point processes capture parsimoniously the idea that events can trigger other events, and their cascades of interactions and mutual influence are essential to understand the behavior of these systems.
A theoretical analysis of the earthquake prediction problem in space-time is presented. We find an explicit structure of the optimal strategy and its relation to the generalized error diagram. This study is a generalization of the theoretical results for time prediction. The possibility and simplicity of this extension is due to the choice of the class of goal functions. We also discuss issues in forecasting versus prediction, scaling laws versus predictability, and measure of prediction efficiency at the research stage.
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility.
Earthquake prediction is one of the most pursued problems in geoscience. Different geological and seismological approaches exist for the prediction of the earthquake and its subsequent land change. However, in many cases, they fail in their mission. In this paper, we address the well-established earthquake prediction problem by a novel approach. We use a four-dimensional location-time machine learning scheme to estimate the time of earthquake and its land change. We present a study for the Ridgecrest, California 2019 earthquake prediction. We show the accuracy of our method is around 14 centim…
In the presented paper the possible methods of the large earthquake prediction are offered. During the study, it was used data of the INFREP (European Network of Electromagnetic Radiation) existent before earthquake. The elaborated methods given in the work are capable of simultaneous determination of all three parameters necessary for large earthquake prediction (magnitude, epicenter and time of occurring) with certain accuracy.
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake p…
The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram 'n' vs. 'tau', where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is a characteristic of space- time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity 'tau' is not defined uniquely, so that the properties of the (n,tau) diagram require a theoretical analysis, which is the main goal of the present study. This note is based on a recent paper by Molchan and Keilis-Borok in GJI, 173 (2008), 1012-1017.
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local "quake" is a precursor of future earthquake, which time is determined by the tide gravitational potential behavior. A Balkan Black Sea region Earthquake's "When, where" Prediction Network is proposed.
A multicomponent random process used as a model for the problem of space-time earthquake prediction; this allows us to develop consistent estimation for conditional probabilities of large earthquakes if the values of the predictor characterizing the seismicity prehistory are known. We introduce tools for assessing prediction efficiency, including a separate determination of efficiency for "time prediction" and "location prediction": a generalized correlation coefficient and the density of information gain. We suggest a technique for testing the predictor to decide whether the hypothesis of no …
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before major earthquakes. The size of the observed stressed areas roughly corresponds to estimates calculated from Dobrovolskys formula. To identify abnormalities and make predictions, Terra Seismic applies various methodologies, including satellite remote sensing methods and data from ground-based instruments. We currently process terabytes of information daily, and u…
A conjecture on imminent earthquake prediction is presented. Drastic geological deformations of crustal rock strata taking place immediately (hours/days) before an earthquake may cause fast air or gas emission/absorption vertically in between ground and sky. I conjecture, inspired by an observation of strange patterns appearing on shaving foam, that this fast movement of air fluid may produce unusual cloud patterns at interfaces between atmosphere levels. This air movement is vertical and drastic, different from the horizontal and moderate meteorological air movement, hence its caused cloud pa…
Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this phenomenon is more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. Hypothetically, in case of availability of adequate methodological grounds, in the nearest future, earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emission might be declared as the main precursor of earthquake. In particular, permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth electromagnetic emission generate…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is +/-1 day for the minimum and +/-2 days for the maximum. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between predicted and occurred earthquake for the period 2001-2002 in Balkan, Black Sea region is given. Examples for…
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous determination of all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction. We have suggested the possible arrangements of the VLF/LF mobile network and offered a completely different view of seismic risk assessing and reducing the accumulated tectonic stress in the earthquake focus as well.
The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,tau), where 'n' is the rate of failures-to-predict and 'tau' is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most interesting space measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the rate of target events m(dg) in a sub-area 'dg'. In this case the quantity H=1-(n+tau) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of m(dg) causes difficulties in estimating 'H' and the statistical significance, 'alfa', of prediction results. We investigate this problem theor…
The paper by Taroni et al. (2016) considers results of forward prediction of Italian strong earthquakes by CN algorithm with the declared intent of providing "a careful assessment of CN prediction performances... using standard testing procedures". Given the very limited number of target events within each region, however, the considered situation is non statistical, and a priori it is clear that the standard statistical methods are not effective here. The attempt to replace the standard approaches by Pari-mutuel Gambling Score (PGS) method leads to almost complete loss of information about pr…
This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique for the prediction of intensity measurements (IMs) of ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation 3C broadband and accelerometric waveforms recorded during the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence for M $\ge$ 3.0. We find that the CNN is capable of predicting accurately the IMs at stations far from the epicenter and that have not yet recorded the maximum ground shaking when using a 10 s window starting at the earthquake origin time. The CNN IM predictions do not require previous knowle…
We analyse the compiled set of precursory data that were reported to be available in real time before the Ms 7.5 Haicheng earthquake in Feb. 1975 and the Ms 7.6-7.8 Tangshan earthquake in July 1976. We propose a robust and simple coarse-graining method consisting in aggregating and counting how all the anomalies together (geodesy, levelling, geomagnetism, soil resistivity, Earth currents, gravity, Earth stress, well water radon, well water level) develop as a function of time. We demonstrate a strong evidence for the existence of an acceleration of the number of anomalies leading up to the maj…
Fast and accurate magnitude prediction is the key to the success of earthquake early warning. We have proposed a new approach based on deep learning for P-wave magnitude prediction (EEWNet), which takes time series data as input instead of feature parameters. The architecture of EEWNet is adaptively adjusted according to the length of the input, thus eliminates the need of complicated tuning of hyperparameters for deep learning. Only the unfiltered accelerograms of vertical components are used. EEWNet is trained on a moderate number of data set (10,000s of records), but it achieves excellent r…
The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation frequency analysis gives the possibility simultaneously to determine all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction (magnitude, epicenter, and time of occurring). It is shown that the prediction of moderate and strong earthquakes is possible with great precision.
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquake have been reported over centuries. Radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes, earthquake lights near the epicenter are recognized as pre-earthquake signals to approach earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instrument under fair weather open up a new way to earthquake prediction. Abnormal heat radiation before the earthquake bring fair weather around the epicenter in theory. In order to figure out the weather conditions around the epicenter before earthquakes, 213 …
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on identifying stressed areas that begin to behave abnormally before strong events, with the size of these areas corresponding to Dobrovolsky formula. We make predictions by combining knowledge from many different disciplines: physics, geophysics, seismology, geology, and earth science, among others. An integrated approach is used to identify anomalies and make pre…
The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately one day and for the maximum- two days. The statistic evidence for reliability is based on of distributions of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2005 for Sofia region and 2004- 2005 for Skopje. The project for complex Balkan- Black Sea region NETWORK for earthquake prediction by using t…
We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detection of Precursors" (RDP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. This makes it possible to detect precursors undetectable by direct analysis. Possible mechanisms underlying RDP are outlined. RDP is described with a concrete example: we consider as short-term precursors the newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation range; and detect (retrospec…
The successful prediction of earthquakes is one of the holy grails in Earth Sciences. Traditional predictions use statistical information on recurrence intervals, but those predictions are not accurate enough. In a recent paper, a machine learning approach was proposed and applied to data of laboratory earthquakes. The machine learning algorithm utilizes continuous measurements of radiated energy through acoustic emissions and the authors were able to successfully predict the timing of laboratory earthquakes. Here, we reproduced their model which was applied to a gouge layer of glass beads and…
Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the prediction…
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology（瑞士联邦理工学院）；Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学高等跨学科研究学院）；Swiss Seismological Service（瑞士地震服务中心）；Institute of Geophysics（地球物理研究所）；Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management（风险分析、预测与管理研究所）；Institute of Structural Engineering（结构工程学院）
In the last few years, deep learning has solved seemingly intractable problems, boosting the hope to find approximate solutions to problems that now are considered unsolvable. Earthquake prediction, the Grail of Seismology, is, in this context of continuous exciting discoveries, an obvious choice for deep learning exploration. We review the entire literature of artificial neural network (ANN) applications for earthquake prediction (77 articles, 1994-2019 period) and find two emerging trends: an increasing interest in this domain, and a complexification of ANN models over time, towards deep lea…
In a recent study (Jozinović et al, 2020) we showed that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) applied to network seismic traces can be used for rapid prediction of earthquake peak ground motion intensity measures (IMs) at distant stations using only recordings from stations near the epicenter. The predictions are made without any previous knowledge concerning the earthquake location and magnitude. This approach differs from the standard procedure adopted by earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) that rely on location and magnitude information. In the previous study, we used 10 s, raw, multis…
Geoscience and seismology have utilized the most advanced technologies and equipment to monitor seismic events globally from the past few decades. With the enormous amount of data, modern GPU-powered deep learning presents a promising approach to analyze data and discover patterns. In recent years, there are plenty of successful deep learning models for picking seismic waves. However, forecasting extreme earthquakes, which can cause disasters, is still an underdeveloped topic in history. Relevant research in spatiotemporal dynamics mining and forecasting has revealed some successful prediction…
Spatio-temporal evolution of low-magnitude seismicity before the May 24, 2013, Sea of Okhotsk earthquake recovered by waveform cross correlation. Is it an earthquake prediction case?
A megathrust subduction earthquake (Mw7.8) struck the coast of Ecuador on April 16th, 2016 at 23h58 UTC. This earthquake is one of the best-recorded megathrust events up to date. Besides the mainshock, two large aftershocks have been recorded on May 18th, 2016, at 7h57 (Mw 6.7) and 16h46 (Mw6.9). These data make a significant contribution for understanding the attenuation of ground motions in Ecuador. Peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations are compared with four ground-motion prediction equations developed for interface earthquakes, the global Abrahamson et al. (2016) model, the …
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approa…
Università La Sapienza（罗马第一大学）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Earthquake forecasting and prediction have long and in some cases sordid histories but recent work has rekindled interest based on advances in early warning, hazard assessment for induced seismicity and successful prediction of laboratory earthquakes. In the lab, frictional stick-slip events provide an analog for earthquakes and the seismic cycle. Labquakes are ideal targets for machine learning (ML) because they can be produced in long sequences under controlled conditions. Recent works show that ML can predict several aspects of labquakes using fault zone acoustic emissions. Here, we general…
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately +/-1 day and for the maximum- +/-2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2003 for Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local when, where earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accu…
The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the forecaster's skill, it has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic, the gambling score R, which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand the class of R-characteristics and apply these to the analysis of results of the M8 prediction algorithm. We show that the level of significance …
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the framework of project SISMA, funded by Italian Space Agency, to jointly use seismological tools, like CN algorithm and scenario earthquakes, and geodetic methods and techniques, like GPS and SAR monitoring, in order to effectively constrain priority areas where to concentrate prevention and seismic risk mitigation. We present a further development of integrati…
The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the methodologies which were used for the analysis of the available data in order to utilize the specific prognosis. Of particular interest is the fact that the determined time of occurrence deviated for less than an hour (actually it was 41 minutes) from the actual occurrence time of the specific EQ. A similar example of another large EQ (Kythira, Greece, Ms =…
Prediction of the Kamchatka July 29, 2025, earthquake by the evolution of low-magnitude seismicity recovered using waveform cross-correlation at IMS seismic arrays
This paper brings space weather prediction close to earthquake (EQ) prediction research. The results of this paper support conclusions of previously presented statistical studies that solar activity influences the seismic activity, this influence is mediated through rapid geomagnetic disturbances and the geomagnetic disturbances are related with increases of solar wind speed. Our study concern an example of 40 days with direct response of a series of 7 strong-to-giant (M=6.8-9.3) EQs (including the Andaman-Sumatra EQ) to solar wind speed increases and subsequent geomagnetic fast disturbances. …
From 23 - 27 July 2001 in the Institute of Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia was held a seminar under the title: "Possible correlations between electromagnetic earth fields and future earthquakes" organized by the Institute's Department of "Astrophysical Objects and Environment". As a main result of the first two days seminar work was the prediction of the direction and the day of the Skyros, Greece earthquake, that was confirned in the next day: Aeg. Sea, 07/26 00:21:37, 39.06N 24.34E, Depth 19 km, Mag 6.3- http://www.noa.gr/English/home-en.html. Analog…
The normalized raw data of the Earth's electric field, monitored at PYR, ATH, HIO monitoring sites in Greece, are studied as far as it concerns the presence of electric seismic precursors. Electric preseismic pulses, plateau-like anomalous electric field and Very Long Period (VLP) anomalies were detected prior to the occurrence of the July 1st, 2009 large (Ms = 6.3R) EQ in Greece. Further processing of the same data revealed the true form of the generated preseimic potential thus providing an indirect estimation of the time window of the occurrence of the large EQ. Finally, by correlating, at …
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；GD Goenka University（GD戈恩卡大学）
Earthquake prediction has been a challenging research area for many decades, where the future occurrence of this highly uncertain calamity is predicted. In this paper, several parametric and non-parametric features were calculated, where the non-parametric features were calculated using the parametric features. $8$ seismic features were calculated using Gutenberg-Richter law, the total recurrence, and the seismic energy release. Additionally, criterions such as Maximum Relevance and Maximum Redundancy were applied to choose the pertinent features. These features along with others were used as …
We study the Earth's electric field monitored at PYR (Greece) monitoring site, for a period of more than six years (May 23rd, 2003 to September 7th, 2009). It is compared, in particular its oscillating component of T = 365 days, with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the same component of the Earth's magnetic field, with the corresponding same period tidal oscillation and with the occurred large EQs of the same period of time. The obtained results suggest that the oscillating electric field component is generated by large scale piezoelectricity triggered…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting. This approach is based on a pattern informatics (PI) method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output is a map of areas in a seismogenic region (``hotspots'') where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-…
Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle unpredictable. We study the predictability of event sizes in the Olmai-Feder-Christensen model at different proximities to criticality using a convolutional neural network. The distribution of event sizes satisfies a power law with a cutoff for large events. We find that prediction decreases as criticality is approached and that prediction is possible only for la…
How to quantify earthquake predictability? Advances in earthquake forecasting and predictability limits
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数学研究所）；the Graduate University for Adavanced Studies (SOKENDai)（advanced studies 研究生院（SOKENDai））；Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management, Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学风险分析、预测与管理研究院）
Earthquakes are measured using well defined seismic parameters such as seismic moment (Mo), moment magnitude (Mw), and released elastic energy(E). How this tremendous amount of energy is accumulated silently deep inside the earth's crust? The most obvious question in seismic research remains unanswered. We found an inherent and intriguing connection between the released energy in an earthquake and electrochemical potential induced in an ultra-thin metal oxide electrode immersed in an aqueous pH solution, which leads us to understand the origin of the energy accumulation process in an earthquak…
A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been develop…
