与时间相关的新确定性地震危险情景：2016年8月24日意大利中部M6 .2地震的初步报告
Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: Preliminary report on the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, 24th August 2016
摘要：
一种基于小波的新确定性地震危险性评估方法（NDSHA）现在是可用的，它允许考虑广泛的可能的震源作为通过全波形建模导出场景的起点。该方法不利用衰减关系，自然地提供真实的地面震动时间序列，包括可靠的估计地面位移，容易适用于完整的工程分析。基于新确定性方法，开发了一种地震危险性评估的操作集成程序，该程序允许通过CN和M8S算法执行的地震预测的例行更新来定义与时间相关的地面震动情景。用于地震输入定义的综合NDSHA程序目前正在意大利境内使用，它将为强震的时空识别设计的不同模式识别技术与地面运动的实际模拟算法结合起来。因此，一组确定性的情况下，地面运动在基岩，这是指的时间间隔时，强烈的事件可能发生在报警区域内，定义在区域和地方尺度。CN和M8S预测，以及与报警区域相关的随时间变化的地面运动情景，自2006年以来定期更新。与时间相关的非数据化的危险性评估方法的预期应用提供了可用于为及时的缓解行动确定优先事项的信息，同时，可对拟议的方法进行严格的验证。具体参考2016年8月24日意大利中部地震，说明了时间相关NDSHA场景的实时测试结果。
英文摘要：
A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed by means of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realistic modeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, is defined both at regional and local scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The prospective application of the time-dependent NDSHA approach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorous validation of the proposed methodology. The results from real-time testing of the time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are illustrated with specific reference to the August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake.
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