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arXiv 1002.2162physics.geo-ph
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“短期地震预测“能有多”短“?希腊斯凯罗斯岛案例的回顾,EQ(26/7/2001,Ms = 6.1 R)

How "Short" a "Short-term earthquake prediction" can be? A review of the case of Skyros Island,Greece, EQ (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R)

C. Thanassoulas, V. Klentos

摘要:

2001年7月26日,希腊斯基罗斯岛发生地震(Ms = 6.1 R),地震发生前三天,保加利亚科学院在索非亚组织的一次会议上宣布。在这项工作中,审查的方法,用于分析现有的数据,以利用特定的预后的结果。特别令人感兴趣的是,确定的发生时间与特定EQ的实际发生时间偏离不到一个小时(实际上是41分钟)。另一个大型EQ(希腊基西拉,Ms = 6.9R,2006年1月8日)的类似示例使用完全相同的方法,仅偏离43分钟。其余的预测参数:震中位置和Skyros EQ的震级通过操纵区域孕震区过去的地震能量释放历史和VOL地球电场监测站点在大震波迹象发生前的最后25天内记录的观测地球电场来利用。本文的结论是,只要用适当的方法处理现有的地震资料,短期地震预测就可以作为真正的“短期”预测。

英文摘要:

The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the methodologies which were used for the analysis of the available data in order to utilize the specific prognosis. Of particular interest is the fact that the determined time of occurrence deviated for less than an hour (actually it was 41 minutes) from the actual occurrence time of the specific EQ. A similar example of another large EQ (Kythira, Greece, Ms = 6.9R, 8th January, 2006) by using the very same methodology deviated for 43 minutes only. The rest of the prognostic parameters: the epicenter location and the magnitude of the Skyros EQ were utilized by manipulating the past seismic energy release history of the regional seismogenic area and the observed earth's electric field which was recorded during the last 25 days, before the occurrence of the large seismic event, by VOL earth's electric field monitoring site. It is concluded that a short-term earthquake prediction can be utilized as a really "short" one, once the available precursory data are processed with the appropriate methodologies.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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