The background seismicity rate of the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, for the period 1964 - 2010. Is Greece in course for a large seismic event?
C. Thanassoulas, V. Klentos, G. Verveniotis, N. Zymaris
The analysis of the earthquakes catalog of Greece for the period 1964 to 2010 indicates a continuously increasing no. of seismic events. A detailed determination of the cumulative seismic energy release, for specific earthquake magnitudes, revealed that for magnitudes up to Ms = 5.0R the Greek territory, considered as a unified seismogenic area, is at a state of accelerating deformation for almost the last 10 years. The background seismicity rate, considering constant cumulative seismic energy release for the entire study period, corresponds to a magnitude of Ms = 5.5R, while for earthquakes of larger magnitudes the Greek seismogenic area behaves irregularly. The results are compared to the different phases (Mjachkin et al, 1975) a seismogenic area undergoes before a large seismic event. From this comparison it is concluded that the Greek territory is probably in the course for a large seismic event in the years to come.
Seismicity observed, at Methoni seismogenic area, Greece, after the analysis of the recorded Earth_s electric field of 21/2/2008_ 22/2/2008, at PYR, ATH and HIO monitoring sites, Greece
It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural engineering standards (e.g. Eurocodes). A special safety factor is introduced and related to the partial factor acting on the mechanical moment representing the fault. A comparison is then made between the hazard maps obtained for Italy with the Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) technique, using two approaches for the definition of the seismic…
The seismogenic area in the lithosphere considered as an "Open Physical System". Its implications on some seismological aspects. Part - III. Seismic Potential
The electric field of the Earth after the occurrence of the February 14th, 2008, Ms = 6.7R EQ in Greece. Its implications towards the prediction of a probable future large EQ
Seismic potential map of Greece calculated for the years 2005 and 2010. Its correlation to the large (Ms>=6.0R) seismic events of the 2000 - 2009 period
Mitigation and optimization of induced seismicity using physics-based forecasting
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego（斯克里普斯海洋学研究所，加州大学圣迭戈分校）；Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University（地质科学系，圣地亚哥州立大学）；Institute of Geological Sciences, of Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学地质科学研究所）
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are very heterogeneous and less brittle; progressive failures of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a characteristic earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another characteristic earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its curre…
The Andravida, Greece EQ (8/06/2008, Ms=7.0R). An "a posteriori" analysis for the determination of its location, occurrence time and magnitude parameters in terms of short-term predictability
On the recent large EQ of Karpathos, Greece (April 1st, 2011, Ms = 6.7R) and its similarities to the large EQ of the January 1st, 2006 (Ms = 6.9R) at East of Kythira, Greece
The theory about the brittle failures of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us since 2010 is introduced in the present study. It is stated by the theory that the progressive failures of locked patch result in the occurrence of earthquakes due to fault movement, where the major earthquakes occurred at its volume expansion and peak strength points are referred to as characteristic ones. We analyze the seismogenic law of characteristic earthquakes in the Islamabad-Kathmandu seismic zone that extends along Himalayan seismic belt, and assess the seismicity trend of t…
A major part of the seismicity striking the Mediterranean area and other regions worldwide is hosted in carbonate rocks. Recent examples are the destructive earthquakes of L'Aquila Mw 6.1 2009 and Norcia Mw 6.5 2016 in Central Italy. Surprisingly, within this region, fast (\approx 3km/s) and destructive seismic ruptures coexist with slow (maximum 10 m/s) and non-destructive rupture phenomena. Despite of its relevance for seismic hazard studies, the transitions from fault creep to slow and fast seismic rupture propagation are still poorly constrained by seismological and laboratory observations…
Was the magnitude (M = 9.0R) of the mega-earthquake of Japan (11th of March, 2011) predictable? An analysis based on the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM)
