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arXiv 2104.09458physics.geo-ph
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强震预报的理论和实践基础

The theoretical and practical foundations of strong earthquake predictability

Oleg Elshin, Andrew A. Tronin

摘要:

本文提供了理论和实践的论点,预测世界范围内的强震和大地震的可能性。许多强震和大地震至少可以提前两到五个月预测,基于确定在强震发生前开始表现异常的应力区域,这些区域的大小与多布罗沃尔斯基公式相对应。我们通过结合许多不同学科的知识来进行预测:物理学、地球物理学、地震学、地质学和地球科学等等。采用综合办法查明异常情况并作出预测,其中包括卫星遥感技术和地面仪器提供的数据。目前每天都要处理太字节的信息,其中应用了许多不同的多参数预测系统。如果几个不同的系统确认了异常,则会发出警报。研究发现,各地震关键区的地震孕育和应力积累的地球物理图象是相似的。自2013年以来,相同的地震预测方法和系统已成功应用于全球实践,该技术成功用于对1970年以来的700多次强震和大地震进行回顾性测试。

英文摘要:

This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on identifying stressed areas that begin to behave abnormally before strong events, with the size of these areas corresponding to Dobrovolsky formula. We make predictions by combining knowledge from many different disciplines: physics, geophysics, seismology, geology, and earth science, among others. An integrated approach is used to identify anomalies and make predictions, including satellite remote sensing techniques and data from ground-based instruments. Terabytes of information are currently processed every day with many different multi-parametric prediction systems applied thereto. Alerts are issued if anomalies are confirmed by a few different systems. It has been found that geophysical patterns of earthquake preparation and stress accumulation are similar for all key seismic regions. The same earthquake prediction methodologies and systems have been successfully applied in global practice since 2013, with the technology successfully used to retrospectively test against more than 700 strong and major earthquakes since 1970.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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