We consider a general discrete-time branching random walk on a countable set X. We relate local, strong local and global survival with suitable inequalities involving the first-moment matrix M of the process. In particular we prove that, while the local behavior is characterized by M, the global behavior cannot be completely described in terms of properties involving M alone. Moreover we show that locally surviving branching random walks can be approximated by sequences of spatially confined and stochastically dominated branching random walks which eventually survive locally if the (possibly finite) state space is large enough. An analogous result can be achieved by approximating a branching random walk by a sequence of multitype contact processes and allowing a sufficiently large number of particles per site. We compare these results with the ones obtained in the continuous-time case and we give some examples and counterexamples.
We give a construction of a tree in which the contact process with any positive infection rate survives but, if a certain privileged edge $e^*$ is removed, one obtains two subtrees in which the contact process with infection rate smaller than $1/4$ dies out.
In this paper, we establish the necessary and sufficient criterion for the contact process on Galton-Watson trees (resp. random graphs) to exhibit the phase of extinction (resp. short survival). We prove that the survival threshold $λ_1$ for a Galton-Watson tree is strictly positive if and only if its offspring distribution $ξ$ has an exponential tail, i.e., $\mathbb{E} e^{cξ}<\infty$ for some $c>0$, settling a conjecture by Huang and Durrett [12]. On the random graph with degree distribution $μ$, we show that if $μ$ has an exponential tail, then for small enough $λ$ the contact process with t…
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.
We study weak and strong survival for branching random walks on multigraphs. We prove that, for a large class of multigraphs, weak survival is related to a geometrical parameter of the multigraph and that the existence of a pure weak phase is equivalent to nonamenability. Finally we study weak and strong critical behaviors of the branching random walk.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of non extinction of a weakly subcritical multitype branching process in iid random environments. Under suitable assumptions, the survival probability is of order of $ρ^n n ^{-3/2}$ for some $ρ\in (0, 1)$ to specify.
We give an alternative proof of a result by N. Gantert, Y. Hu and Z. Shi on the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of the branching random walk killed below a linear boundary, in the special case of deterministic binary branching and bounded random walk steps. Connections with the Brunet-Derrida theory of stochastic fronts are discussed.
Lower and upper bounds for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the time to extinction in a subcritical two-sex branching process are derived. A recursive procedure for approximating this cdf is also utilized. The results are illustrated with some simulations.
We study survival of nearest-neighbour branching random walks in random environment (BRWRE) on ${\mathbb Z}$. A priori there are three different regimes of survival: global survival, local survival, and strong local survival. We show that local and strong local survival regimes coincide for BRWRE and that they can be characterized with the spectral radius of the first moment matrix of the process. These results are generalizations of the classification of BRWRE in recurrent and transient regimes. Our main result is a characterization of global survival that is given in terms of Lyapunov expone…
We consider a branching Brownian motion with linear drift in which particles are killed on exiting the interval (0,K) and study the evolution of the process on the event of survival as the width of the interval shrinks to the critical value at which survival is no longer possible. We combine spine techniques and a backbone decomposition to obtain exact asymptotics for the near-critical survival probability. This allows us to deduce the existence of a quasi-stationary limit result for the process conditioned on survival which reveals that the backbone thins down to a spine as we approach critic…
Under the assumption that the initial population size of a Galton-Watson branching process increases to infinity, the paper studies asymptotic behavior of the population size before extinction. More specifically, we establish asymptotic properties of the conditional moments (which are exactly defined in the paper).
The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the conditional distribution of the number of particles in a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}% (m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ with $N$ types of particles at moment $m=n-k,\, k=o(n),$ is investigated given that the extinction moment of the process is $n$.
Recently, different dispersion strategies in population models subject to geometric catastrophes have been considered as strategies to improve the chance of po\-pu\-lation's survival. Such dispersion strategies have been contrasted with the strategy where there is no dispersion, comparing the probabilities of survival. In this article, we contrast survival strategies when extinction occurs almost surely, evaluating which strategy prolongs population's life span. Our results allow one to analyze what is the best strategy for survival based on parameters as the probability that each individual e…
The aim of this paper is the study of the strong local survival property for discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. We study this property by means of an infinite dimensional generating function G and a maximum principle which, we prove, is satisfied by every fixed point of G. We give results about the existence of a strong local survival regime and we prove that, unlike local and global survival, in continuous time, strong local survival is not a monotone property in the general case (though it is monotone if the branching random walk is quasi transitive). We provide an exa…
We give an explicit formula for the most likely path to extinction for the Galton-Watson processes with large initial population. We establish this result with the help of the large deviation principle (LDP) which also recovers the asymptotics of extinction probability. Due to the nonnegativity of the Galton-Watson processes, the proof of LDP verification at the point of extinction uses a nonstandard argument of independent interest.
Given a branching random walk on a set $X$, we study its extinction probability vectors $\mathbf q(\cdot,A)$. Their components are the probability that the process goes extinct in a fixed $A\subseteq X$, when starting from a vertex $x\in X$. The set of extinction probability vectors (obtained letting $A$ vary among all subsets of $X$) is a subset of the set of the fixed points of the generating function of the branching random walk. In particular here we are interested in the cardinality of the set of extinction probability vectors. We prove results which allow to understand whether the probab…
In this paper, we show that a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to have a fixed number of particles in generation $n$ converges in distribution as $n\rightarrow\infty$, and with this tool we study the span and gap statistics of a branching random walk on such trees, which is the discrete version of Ramola, Majumdar and Schehr 2015, generalized to arbitrary offspring and displacement distributions with moment constraints.
It is well known that a simple, supercritical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process turns into a subcritical such process, if conditioned to die out. We prove that the corresponding holds true for general, multi-type branching, where child-bearing may occur at different ages, life span may depend upon reproduction, and the whole course of events is thus affected by conditioning upon extinction.
We consider a particular Branching Random Walk in Random Environment (BRWRE) on $\sN_0$ started with one particle at the origin. Particles reproduce according to an offspring distribution (which depends on the location) and move either one step to the right (with a probability in $(0,1]$ which also depends on the location) or stay in the same place. We give criteria for local and global survival and show that global survival is equivalent to exponential growth of the moments. Further, on the event of survival the number of particles grows almost surely exponentially fast with the same growth r…
This review paper presents the known results on the asymptotics of the survival probability and limit theorems conditioned on survival of critical and subcritical branching processes in IID random environments. The key assumptions of the family of population models in question are: non-overlapping generations, independent reproduction of particles within a generation, independent reproduction laws between generations. This is a biologically important generalization of the time inhomogeneous branching processes. The assumption of IID (independent and identically distributed) random environments…
We prove the exponential estimate \begin{equation*} P \{ s < τ< \infty \} \leq C e^{-q s}, \quad s \geq 0, \end{equation*} where $C, q >0$ are constants and $ τ$ is the extinction time of the supercritical branching random walk (BRW) on a cube. We cover both the discrete-space and continuous-space BRWs.
It is a common practice to describe branching random walks in terms of birth, death and walk of particles, which makes it easier to use them in different applications. The main results obtained for the models of symmetric continuous-time heavy-tailed branching random walks on a multidimensional lattice. We will be mainly interested in studying the problems related to the limiting behavior of branching random walks such as the existence of phase transitions under change of various parameters, the properties of the limiting distribution and the survival probability of a particle population. Emph…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the survival probability of a multi-type branching processes in random environment. The class of processes we consider corresponds, in the one-dimensional situation, to the intermediately subcritical case. We show under rather general assumptions on the form of the offspring generating functions of particles that the probability of survival up to generation $n$ of the process initiated at moment zero by a single particle of any type is of order $λ^{n}n^{-1/2}$ for large $n,$ where $λ\in (0,1)$ is a constant specified by the Lyapunov exponent of the mean mat…
We consider branching Brownian motion on the real line with absorption at zero, in which particles move according to independent Brownian motions with the critical drift of $-\sqrt{2}$. Kesten (1978) showed that almost surely this process eventually dies out. Here we obtain upper and lower bounds on the probability that the process survives until some large time $t$. These bounds improve upon results of Kesten (1978), and partially confirm nonrigorous predictions of Derrida and Simon (2007).
We consider a discrete-time host-parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton-Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the multiplication mechanisms of cells and parasites are allowed to obey some dependence structure. More precisely, the number of offspring produced by a mother cell determines the reproduction law of a parasite living in this cell and also the way the parasite offspring is shared into the daughter cells. In this article, we provide a formal introduction of this b…
Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the process $Z$ at moment $n\to \infty$, and show that if the logarithm of the (random) expectation of the offspring number belongs to the domain of attraction of a non-gaussian stable law then the extinction occurs owing to very unfavorable environment forcing the process, having at moment $T-1$ exponentially large population, to die out. We also give an interpretati…
This article is concerned with a version of the contact process with sexual reproduction on a graph with two levels of interactions modeling metapopulations. The population is spatially distributed into patches and offspring are produced in each patch at a rate proportional to the number of pairs of individuals in the patch (sexual reproduction) rather than simply the number of individuals as in the basic contact process. Offspring produced at a given patch either stay in their parents' patch or are sent to a nearby patch with some fixed probabilities. As the patch size tends to infinity, we i…
We study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in a Lévy environment, where the associated Lévy process oscillates. Assuming that the Lévy process satisfies the Spitzer's condition and the existence of some exponential moments, we extend recent results where the associated branching mechanism was stable. Our study relies on the path analysis of the process together with its environment, when this latter is conditioned to have a non negative running infimum. This approach is inspired from the discrete setting with i.i.d. environment studied in (Afanasyev et al. 2005).
Using the annealed approach we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of a critical multitype branching process evolving in i.i.d. random environment. We show under rather general assumptions on the form of the offspring generating functions of particles that the probability of survival up to generation $n$ of the process initiated at moment zero by a single particle of type $i$ is equivalent to $c_{i}n^{-1/2}$ for large $n,$ where $c_{i}$ is a positive constant. Earlier such asymptotic representation was known only for the case of the fractional linear offspring gener…
We consider the extinction events of Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton-Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is then used to show that, under some sufficient conditions, the corresponding sequence of extinction probability vectors converges to the global extinction probability vector of the Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. This gives rise to a number of iterative methods for the computation of the global extinction probability vector.
Let $(Z_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ be a branching process in a random environment defined by a Markov chain $(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0}$ with values in a finite state space $\mathbb X$ starting at $X_0=i \in\mathbb X$. We extend from the i.i.d. environment to the Markovian one the classical classification of the branching processes into critical and strongly, intermediate and weakly subcritical states. In all these cases, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that $Z_n>0$ as $n\to+\infty$.
We consider a class of multitype Galton-Watson branching processes with a countably infinite type set $\mathcal{X}_d$ whose mean progeny matrices have a block lower Hessenberg form. For these processes, the probability $\boldsymbol{q}(A)$ of extinction in subsets of types $A\subseteq \mathcal{X}_d$ may differ from the global extinction probability $\boldsymbol{q}$ and the partial extinction probability $\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. After deriving partial and global extinction criteria, we develop conditions for $\boldsymbol{q}<\boldsymbol{q}(A)<\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. We then present an iterative…
We study a branching Brownian motion $Z$ with a generic branching law, evolving in $\mathbb{R}^d$, where a field of Poissonian traps is present. Each trap is a ball with constant radius. We focus on two cases of Poissonian fields: a uniform field and a radially decaying field. Using classical results on the convergence of the speed of branching Brownian motion, we establish precise results on the population size of $Z$, given that it avoids the trap field, while staying alive up to time $t$. The results are stated so that each gives an 'optimal survival strategy' for $Z$. As corollaries of the…
We consider a class of branching processes with countably many types which we refer to as Lower Hessenberg branching processes. These are multitype Galton-Watson processes with typeset $\mathcal{X}=\{0,1,2,\dots\}$, in which individuals of type $i$ may give birth to offspring of type $j\leq i+1$ only. For this class of processes, we study the set $S$ of fixed points of the progeny generating function. In particular, we highlight the existence of a continuum of fixed points whose minimum is the global extinction probability vector $\boldsymbol{q}$ and whose maximum is the partial extinction pro…
We consider a branching random walk with an absorbing barrier, where the step of the associated one-dimensional random walk is in the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable law with $1<α<2$. We shall prove that there is a barrier $an^{\frac{1}{1+α}}$ and a critical value $a_α$ such that if $a<a_α$, then the process dies; if $a>a_α$, then the process survives. The results generalize previous results in literature for the case $α=2$.
Consider a discrete-time one-dimensional supercritical branching random walk. We study the probability that there exists an infinite ray in the branching random walk that always lies above the line of slope $γ-ε$, where $γ$ denotes the asymptotic speed of the right-most position in the branching random walk. Under mild general assumptions upon the distribution of the branching random walk, we prove that when $ε\to 0$, the probability in question decays like $\exp\{- {β+ o(1)\over ε^{1/2}}\}$, where $β$ is a positive constant depending on the distribution of the branching random walk. In the sp…
In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching processes states that in the critical regime, a process conditioned on non-extinction and normalized will converge in distribution to a standard exponential. In a paper of Jagers, time-inhomogeneous branching processes are shown to exhibit this convergence as well. In this paper, the hypotheses of Jagers' result are relaxed, further hypotheses are presented f…
We present two iterative methods for computing the global and partial extinction probability vectors for Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. The probabilistic interpretation of these methods involves truncated Galton-Watson processes with finite sets of types and modified progeny generating functions. In addition, we discuss the connection of the convergence norm of the mean progeny matrix with extinction criteria. Finally, we give a sufficient condition for a population to become extinct almost surely even though its population size explodes on the average, which is …
A multitype continuous-state branching process (MCSBP) ${\rm Z}=({\rm Z}_{t})_{t\geq 0}$, is a Markov process with values in $[0,\infty)^{d}$ that satisfies the branching property. Its distribution is characterised by its branching mechanism, that is the data of $d$ Laplace exponents of $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued spectrally positive Lévy processes, each one having $d-1$ increasing components. We give an expression of the probability for a MCSBP to tend to 0 at infinity in term of its branching mechanism. Then we prove that this extinction holds at a finite time if and only if some condition bearing…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex degree. As a corollary we obtain a Gumbel limit law for the extinction time, when beginning with a large population. Our contribution is to allow countably many types (this corresponds to unbounded degrees in the random graph epidemic model, as the number of vertices tends to infinity). We only require a second moment for the offspring-type distribution featuring …
We consider continuous state branching processes that are perturbed by a Brownian motion. These processes are constructed as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. The long-term extinction and explosion behaviours are studied. In the stable case, the extinction and explosion probabilities are given explicitly. We find three regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the explosion probability and, as in the case of branching processes in random environment, we find five regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the extinction probability. In the supercritical regime, we st…
A critical branching process $\left\{ Z_{k},k=0,1,2,...\right\} $ in a random environment is considered. A conditional functional limit theorem for the properly scaled process $\left\{ \log Z_{pu},0\leq u<\infty \right\} $ is established under the assumptions $Z_{n}>0$ and $p\ll n$. It is shown that the limiting process is a Levy process conditioned to stay nonnegative. The proof of this result is based on a limit theorem describing the distribution of the initial part of the trajectories of a driftless random walk conditioned to stay nonnegative.
The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the probability of the event that a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}(m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ $m=0,1,2,...,$ with $N$ types of particles dies at moment $n$ is investigated and conditional limit theorems are proved describing the distribution of the number of particles in the process $\mathbf{Z}(\cdot)$ at moment $m<n,$ given that the extinction moment of the process is $n$. These limit theorems may be considered as the statements describing the distribution of the number of vertices in the layers of certain classes of…
We consider continuous state branching processes (CSBP) with additional multiplicative jumps modeling dramatic events in a random environment. These jumps are described by a Lévy process with bounded variation paths. We construct a process of this class as the unique solution of a stochastic differential equation. The quenched branching property of the process allows us to derive quenched and annealed results and to observe new asymptotic behaviors. We characterize the Laplace exponent of the process as the solution of a backward ordinary differential equation and establish the probability of …
In this manuscript, we continue with the systematic study of the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in Lévy environments under more general branching mechanisms. Here, we deal with the weakly subcritical regime under the assumption that the branching mechanism is regularly varying. We extend recent results of Li and Xu [14] and Palau et al. [17], where it is assumed that the branching mechanism is stable and complement the recent articles of Bansaye et al. [2] and by the authors in [7], where the critical and the strongly and intermediate subcritical cases were treated…
Consider a system of particles performing branching Brownian motion with negative drift $μ= \sqrt{2 - ε}$ and killed upon hitting zero. Initially there is one particle at $x>0$. Kesten showed that the process survives with positive probability if and only if $ε>0$. Here we are interested in the asymptotics as $\eps\to 0$ of the survival probability $Q_μ(x)$. It is proved that if $L= π/\sqrtε$ then for all $x \in \R$, $\lim_{ε\to 0} Q_μ(L+x) = θ(x) \in (0,1)$ exists and is a travelling wave solution of the Fisher-KPP equation. Furthermore, we obtain sharp asymptotics of the survival probability…
We consider a critical branching process in an i.i.d. random environment, in which one immigrant arrives at each generation. We are interested in the event $\mathcal{A}_i(n)$ that all individuals alive at time $n$ are offspring of the immigrant which joined the population at time $i$. We study the asymptotic probability of this event when $n$ is large and $i$ follows different asymptotics which may be related to $n$ ($i$ fixed, close to $n$, or going to infinity but far from $n$). In order to do so, we establish some conditional limit theorems for random walks, which are of independent interes…
The purpose of this article is to observe that the zero sets of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI) are infinitely divisible regenerative sets. Indeed, they can be constructed by the procedure of random cutouts introduced by Mandelbrot in 1972. We then show how very precise information about the zero sets of CBI can be obtained in terms of the branching and immigrating mechanism.
The reproduction speed of a continuous-time branching random walk is proportional to a positive parameter $λ$. There is a threshold for $λ$, which is called $λ_w$, that separates almost sure global extinction from global survival. Analogously, there exists another threshold $λ_s$ below which any site is visited almost surely a finite number of times (i.e.~local extinction) while above it there is a positive probability of visiting every site infinitely many times. The local critical parameter $λ_s$ is completely understood and can be computed as a function of the reproduction rates. On the oth…
We use interacting particle systems to investigate survival and extinction of a species with colonies located on each site of $\mathbb {Z}^d$. In each of the four models studied, an individual in a local population can reproduce, die or migrate to neighboring sites. We prove that an increase of the death rate when the local population density is small (the Allee effect) may be critical for survival, and that the migration of large flocks of individuals is a possible solution to avoid extinction when the Allee effect is strong. We use attractiveness and comparison with oriented percolation, eit…
Extinction and extinguishment properties for a nonlinear predator-prey branching model
Shenzhen MSU-BIT University（深圳莫斯科国立鲍曼技术大学）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；North Minzu University（北方民族大学）
Recently in Barczy, Li and Pap (2015), the notion of a multi-type continuous-state branching process (with immigration) having d-types was introduced as a solution to an d-dimensional vector- valued SDE. Preceding that, work on affine processes, originally motivated by math- ematical finance, in Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer (2003) also showed the existence of such processes. See also more recent contributions in this direction due to Gabrielli and Teichmann (2014) and Caballero, Perez Garmendia and Uribe Bravo (2015). Older work on multi-type continuous-state branching processes is more…
In this paper, we study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in subcritical Lévy environments. More precisely, when the associated Lévy process to the environment drifts to $-\infty$ and, under a suitable exponential martingale change of measure (Esscher transform), the environment either drifts to $-\infty$ or oscillates. We extend recent results of Palau et al. (2016) and Li and Xu (2018), where the branching term is associated to a spectrally positive stable Lévy process and complement the recent article of Bansaye et al. (2021) where the critical case was studied…
We first study a model, introduced recently in \cite{ES}, of a critical branching random walk in an IID random environment on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. The walker performs critical (0-2) branching at a lattice point if and only if there is no `obstacle' placed there. The obstacles appear at each site with probability $p\in [0,1)$ independently of each other. We also consider a similar model, where the offspring distribution is subcritical. Let $S_n$ be the event of survival up to time $n$. We show that on a set of full $\mathbb P_p$-measure, as $n\to\infty$, (i) Critical case: P^ω(S…
