We give an explicit formula for the most likely path to extinction for the Galton-Watson processes with large initial population. We establish this result with the help of the large deviation principle (LDP) which also recovers the asymptotics of extinction probability.
Due to the nonnegativity of the Galton-Watson processes, the proof of LDP verification at the point of extinction uses a nonstandard argument of independent interest.
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a continuous state branching process whose branching mechanism satisfies a given condition and its reflected process at its infimum.
Lower and upper bounds for the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the time to extinction in a subcritical two-sex branching process are derived. A recursive procedure for approximating this cdf is also utilized. The results are illustrated with some simulations.
Under the assumption that the initial population size of a Galton-Watson branching process increases to infinity, the paper studies asymptotic behavior of the population size before extinction. More specifically, we establish asymptotic properties of the conditional moments (which are exactly defined in the paper).
The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the conditional distribution of the number of particles in a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}% (m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ with $N$ types of particles at moment $m=n-k,\, k=o(n),$ is investigated given that the extinction moment of the process is $n$.
Given a branching random walk on a set $X$, we study its extinction probability vectors $\mathbf q(\cdot,A)$. Their components are the probability that the process goes extinct in a fixed $A\subseteq X$, when starting from a vertex $x\in X$. The set of extinction probability vectors (obtained letting $A$ vary among all subsets of $X$) is a subset of the set of the fixed points of the generating function of the branching random walk. In particular here we are interested in the cardinality of the set of extinction probability vectors. We prove results which allow to understand whether the probab…
It is well known that a simple, supercritical Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process turns into a subcritical such process, if conditioned to die out. We prove that the corresponding holds true for general, multi-type branching, where child-bearing may occur at different ages, life span may depend upon reproduction, and the whole course of events is thus affected by conditioning upon extinction.
We prove the exponential estimate \begin{equation*} P \{ s < τ< \infty \} \leq C e^{-q s}, \quad s \geq 0, \end{equation*} where $C, q >0$ are constants and $ τ$ is the extinction time of the supercritical branching random walk (BRW) on a cube. We cover both the discrete-space and continuous-space BRWs.
We consider a discrete-time host-parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton-Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the multiplication mechanisms of cells and parasites are allowed to obey some dependence structure. More precisely, the number of offspring produced by a mother cell determines the reproduction law of a parasite living in this cell and also the way the parasite offspring is shared into the daughter cells. In this article, we provide a formal introduction of this b…
Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the process $Z$ at moment $n\to \infty$, and show that if the logarithm of the (random) expectation of the offspring number belongs to the domain of attraction of a non-gaussian stable law then the extinction occurs owing to very unfavorable environment forcing the process, having at moment $T-1$ exponentially large population, to die out. We also give an interpretati…
We study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in a Lévy environment, where the associated Lévy process oscillates. Assuming that the Lévy process satisfies the Spitzer's condition and the existence of some exponential moments, we extend recent results where the associated branching mechanism was stable. Our study relies on the path analysis of the process together with its environment, when this latter is conditioned to have a non negative running infimum. This approach is inspired from the discrete setting with i.i.d. environment studied in (Afanasyev et al. 2005).
We consider the extinction events of Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton-Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is then used to show that, under some sufficient conditions, the corresponding sequence of extinction probability vectors converges to the global extinction probability vector of the Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. This gives rise to a number of iterative methods for the computation of the global extinction probability vector.
We consider a class of multitype Galton-Watson branching processes with a countably infinite type set $\mathcal{X}_d$ whose mean progeny matrices have a block lower Hessenberg form. For these processes, the probability $\boldsymbol{q}(A)$ of extinction in subsets of types $A\subseteq \mathcal{X}_d$ may differ from the global extinction probability $\boldsymbol{q}$ and the partial extinction probability $\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. After deriving partial and global extinction criteria, we develop conditions for $\boldsymbol{q}<\boldsymbol{q}(A)<\tilde{\boldsymbol{q}}$. We then present an iterative…
We consider a class of branching processes with countably many types which we refer to as Lower Hessenberg branching processes. These are multitype Galton-Watson processes with typeset $\mathcal{X}=\{0,1,2,\dots\}$, in which individuals of type $i$ may give birth to offspring of type $j\leq i+1$ only. For this class of processes, we study the set $S$ of fixed points of the progeny generating function. In particular, we highlight the existence of a continuum of fixed points whose minimum is the global extinction probability vector $\boldsymbol{q}$ and whose maximum is the partial extinction pro…
In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching processes states that in the critical regime, a process conditioned on non-extinction and normalized will converge in distribution to a standard exponential. In a paper of Jagers, time-inhomogeneous branching processes are shown to exhibit this convergence as well. In this paper, the hypotheses of Jagers' result are relaxed, further hypotheses are presented f…
We present two iterative methods for computing the global and partial extinction probability vectors for Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. The probabilistic interpretation of these methods involves truncated Galton-Watson processes with finite sets of types and modified progeny generating functions. In addition, we discuss the connection of the convergence norm of the mean progeny matrix with extinction criteria. Finally, we give a sufficient condition for a population to become extinct almost surely even though its population size explodes on the average, which is …
A multitype continuous-state branching process (MCSBP) ${\rm Z}=({\rm Z}_{t})_{t\geq 0}$, is a Markov process with values in $[0,\infty)^{d}$ that satisfies the branching property. Its distribution is characterised by its branching mechanism, that is the data of $d$ Laplace exponents of $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued spectrally positive Lévy processes, each one having $d-1$ increasing components. We give an expression of the probability for a MCSBP to tend to 0 at infinity in term of its branching mechanism. Then we prove that this extinction holds at a finite time if and only if some condition bearing…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex degree. As a corollary we obtain a Gumbel limit law for the extinction time, when beginning with a large population. Our contribution is to allow countably many types (this corresponds to unbounded degrees in the random graph epidemic model, as the number of vertices tends to infinity). We only require a second moment for the offspring-type distribution featuring …
We consider continuous state branching processes that are perturbed by a Brownian motion. These processes are constructed as the unique strong solution of a stochastic differential equation. The long-term extinction and explosion behaviours are studied. In the stable case, the extinction and explosion probabilities are given explicitly. We find three regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the explosion probability and, as in the case of branching processes in random environment, we find five regimes for the asymptotic behaviour of the extinction probability. In the supercritical regime, we st…
The asymptotic behavior, as $n\rightarrow \infty $ of the probability of the event that a decomposable critical branching process $\mathbf{Z}(m)=(Z_{1}(m),...,Z_{N}(m)),$ $m=0,1,2,...,$ with $N$ types of particles dies at moment $n$ is investigated and conditional limit theorems are proved describing the distribution of the number of particles in the process $\mathbf{Z}(\cdot)$ at moment $m<n,$ given that the extinction moment of the process is $n$. These limit theorems may be considered as the statements describing the distribution of the number of vertices in the layers of certain classes of…
We consider continuous state branching processes (CSBP) with additional multiplicative jumps modeling dramatic events in a random environment. These jumps are described by a Lévy process with bounded variation paths. We construct a process of this class as the unique solution of a stochastic differential equation. The quenched branching property of the process allows us to derive quenched and annealed results and to observe new asymptotic behaviors. We characterize the Laplace exponent of the process as the solution of a backward ordinary differential equation and establish the probability of …
In this manuscript, we continue with the systematic study of the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in Lévy environments under more general branching mechanisms. Here, we deal with the weakly subcritical regime under the assumption that the branching mechanism is regularly varying. We extend recent results of Li and Xu [14] and Palau et al. [17], where it is assumed that the branching mechanism is stable and complement the recent articles of Bansaye et al. [2] and by the authors in [7], where the critical and the strongly and intermediate subcritical cases were treated…
The purpose of this article is to observe that the zero sets of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI) are infinitely divisible regenerative sets. Indeed, they can be constructed by the procedure of random cutouts introduced by Mandelbrot in 1972. We then show how very precise information about the zero sets of CBI can be obtained in terms of the branching and immigrating mechanism.
Extinction and extinguishment properties for a nonlinear predator-prey branching model
Shenzhen MSU-BIT University（深圳莫斯科国立鲍曼技术大学）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；North Minzu University（北方民族大学）
Recently in Barczy, Li and Pap (2015), the notion of a multi-type continuous-state branching process (with immigration) having d-types was introduced as a solution to an d-dimensional vector- valued SDE. Preceding that, work on affine processes, originally motivated by math- ematical finance, in Duffie, Filipovic and Schachermayer (2003) also showed the existence of such processes. See also more recent contributions in this direction due to Gabrielli and Teichmann (2014) and Caballero, Perez Garmendia and Uribe Bravo (2015). Older work on multi-type continuous-state branching processes is more…
In this paper, we study the speed of extinction of continuous state branching processes in subcritical Lévy environments. More precisely, when the associated Lévy process to the environment drifts to $-\infty$ and, under a suitable exponential martingale change of measure (Esscher transform), the environment either drifts to $-\infty$ or oscillates. We extend recent results of Palau et al. (2016) and Li and Xu (2018), where the branching term is associated to a spectrally positive stable Lévy process and complement the recent article of Bansaye et al. (2021) where the critical case was studied…
Supercritical branching processes in constant environment conditioned on eventual extinction are known to be subcritical branching processes. The case of random environment is more subtle. A supercritical branching diffusion in random environment (BDRE) conditioned on eventual extinction of the population is not a BDRE. However the quenched law of the population size of a supercritical BDRE conditioned on eventual extinction is equal to the quenched law of the population size of a subcritical BDRE. As a consequence, supercritical BDREs have a phase transition which is similar to a well-known p…
We consider a critical branching particle system in $\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\in\{1,...,K\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $α_i$-stable motion. We assume that the particle lifetimes and offspring distributions are type-dependent. Under the usual independence assumptions in branching systems, we prove extinction theorems in the following cases: (1) all the particle lifetimes have finite mean, or (2) there is a type whose lifetime distribution has heavy tail, and the other lifetimes have finite mean. We get a more c…
We consider a general discrete-time branching random walk on a countable set X. We relate local, strong local and global survival with suitable inequalities involving the first-moment matrix M of the process. In particular we prove that, while the local behavior is characterized by M, the global behavior cannot be completely described in terms of properties involving M alone. Moreover we show that locally surviving branching random walks can be approximated by sequences of spatially confined and stochastically dominated branching random walks which eventually survive locally if the (possibly f…
We study a model of growing population that competes for resources. At each time step, all existing particles reproduce and the offspring randomly move to neighboring sites. Then at any site with more than one offspring, the particles are annihilated. This is a nonmonotone model, which makes the analysis more difficult. We consider the extinction window of this model in the finite mean-field case, where there are $n$ sites but movement is allowed to any site (the complete graph). We show that although the system survives for exponential time, the extinction window is logarithmic.
In this paper we study a 2-type linear-fractional branching process in varying environment with asymptotically constant mean matrices. Let $ν$ be the extinction time and for $k\ge1$ let $M_k$ be the mean matrix of offspring distribution of individuals of the $(k-1)$-th generation. Under certain conditions, we show that $P(ν=n)$ and $P(ν>n)$ are asymptotically equivalent to some functions of products of spectral radii of the mean matrices. This paper complements a former result [arXiv: 2007.07840] which requires in addition a condition $\forall k\ge1,\rm{det}(M_k)<-\varepsilon$ for some $\varep…
We consider Galton-Watson branching processes with countable typeset $\mathcal{X}$. We study the vectors ${\bf q}(A)=(q_x(A))_{x\in\mathcal{X}}$ recording the conditional probabilities of extinction in subsets of types $A\subseteq \mathcal{X}$, given that the type of the initial individual is $x$. We first investigate the location of the vectors ${\bf q}(A)$ in the set of fixed points of the progeny generating vector and prove that $q_x(\{x\})$ is larger than or equal to the $x$th entry of any fixed point, whenever it is different from 1. Next, we present equivalent conditions for $q_x(A)< q_x…
We consider a spectrally positive Lévy process $X$ that does not drift to $+\infty$, viewed as coding for the genealogical structure of a (sub)critical branching process, in the sense of a contour or exploration process \cite{GaJa98,Lam10}. We denote by $I$ the past infimum process defined for each $t\geq 0$ by $I_t:= \inf_{[0,t]} X$ and we let $γ$ be the unique time at which the excursion of the reflected process $X-I$ away from 0 attains its supremum. We prove that the pre-$γ$ and the post-$γ$ subpaths of this excursion are invariant under space-time reversal, which has several other consequ…
In this paper, we study the extinction time of logistic branching processes which are perturbed by an independent random environment driven by a Brownian motion. Our arguments use a Lamperti-type representation which is interesting on its own right and provides a one to one correspondence between the latter family of processes and the family of Feller diffusions which are perturbed by an independent spectrally positive Lévy process. When the independent random perturbation (of the Feller diffusion) is driven by a subordinator then the logistic branching processes in a Brownian environment conv…
We construct a continuous state branching process with immigration (CBI) whose immigration depends on the CBI itself and we recover a continuous state branching process (CB). This provides a dual construction of the pruning at nodes of CB introduced by the authors in a previous paper. This construction is a natural way to model neutral mutation. Using exponential formula, we compute the probability of extinction of the original type population in a critical or sub-critical quadratic branching, conditionally on the non extinction of the total population.
A continuous-state polynomial branching process is constructed as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation with absorbing boundary condition. The extinction and explosion probabilities and the mean extinction and explosion times are computed explicitly, which are also new in the classical branching case. We present necessary and sufficient conditions for the process to extinguish or explode in finite times. In the critical or subcritical case, we give a construction of the process coming down from infinity. Finally, it is shown that the continuous-state polynomial branchi…
We study the maximal displacement and related population for a branching Brownian motion in Euclidean space in terms of the principal eigenvalue of an associated Schrödinger type operator. We first determine their growth rates on the survival event. We then establish the upper deviation for the maximal displacement under the possibility of extinction. Under the non-extinction condition, we further discuss the decay rate of the upper deviation probability and the population growth at the critical phase.
We consider the branching random walk drifting to $-\infty$ and we investigate large deviations-type estimates for the first passage time. We prove the corresponding law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.
A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random environment, and one individual is replaced by a random number of offspring whose distribution depends on the new environment. We give a first moment condition that determines whether this process survives forever with positive probability. On the event of survival we prove a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the population size. We also define a …
A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$ such that the probability $P(Z_n=0)$ of extinction of the $n$th generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence $X_1,...,X_n$, where these variables are i.i.d distributed as $X$. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple `stoppi…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers limit is the deterministic model, the disease free equilibrium is an absorbing state, which is reached soon or later by the process. However, for a large population size, i.e. when the stochastic model is close to its deterministic limit, the time needed for the stochastic perturbations to stop the epidemic may be enormous. In this paper, we discuss how the Ce…
This paper concerns the almost sure time dependent local extinction behavior for super-coalescing Brownian motion $X$ with $(1+β)$-stable branching and Lebesgue initial measure on $\bR$. We first give a representation of $X$ using excursions of a continuous state branching process and Arratia's coalescing Brownian flow. For any nonnegative, nondecreasing and right continuous function $g$, put τ:=\sup \{t\geq 0: X_t([-g(t),g(t)])>0 \}. We prove that $\bP\{τ=\infty\}=0$ or 1 according as the integral $\int_1^\infty g(t)t^{-1-1/β} dt$ is finite or infinite.
Conditioning a branching Brownian motion to have an atypically low maximum leads to a suppression of the branching mechanism. In this note, we consider a branching Brownian motion conditioned to have a maximum below $\sqrt{2}αt$ ($α<1$). We study the precise effects of an early/late first branching time and a low/high first branching location under this condition. We do so by imposing additional constraints on the first branching time and location. We obtain large deviation estimates, as well as the optimal first branching time and location given the additional constraints.
Let $\left \{ Z_{n}, n\ge 0 \right \}$ be a supercritical branching process in an independent and identically distributed random environment $ξ=\left ( ξ_{n} \right )_{n\geq 0} $. In this paper, we get some deviation inequalities for $\ln \left (Z_{n+n_{0} } / Z_{n_{0} } \right ).$ And some applications are given for constructing confidence intervals.
In this paper we provide explicit representations of Laplace transforms of extinction time and total progeny of rough continuous-state branching processes introduced in [7]. Also, we show that their tail distributions are much fatter than those of Feller branching diffusions.
We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We describe precise asymptotics of upper large deviations, i.e. $\mathbb{P}[Z_n > e^{ρn}]$. Moreover in the subcritical case, under the Cramér condition on the mean of the reproduction law, we investigate large deviations-type estimates for the first passage time of the branching process in question and its total population size.
In this paper, we consider $n$-type Markov branching processes with immigration and resurrection. The uniqueness criteria are first established. Then, a new method is found and the explicit expression of extinction probability is successfully obtained in the absorption case, the mean extinction time is also given. The recurrence and ergodicity criteria are given if the state ${\bf 0}$ is not absorptive. Finally, if the resurrection rates are same as the immigration rates, the branching property and decay property are discussed in detail, it is shown that the process is a superimposition of a $…
We consider real-valued branching random walks and prove a large deviation result for the position of the rightmost particle. The position of the rightmost particle is the maximum of a collection of a random number of dependent random walks. We characterise the rate function as the solution of a variational problem. We consider the same random number of independent random walks, and show that the maximum of the branching random walk is dominated by the maximum of the independent random walks. For the maximum of independent random walks, we derive a large deviation principle as well. It turns o…
We consider a $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued branching random walk with a stationary and ergodic environment $ξ=(ξ_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$. With the help of the uniform convergence of martingale and the multifractal analysis, we establish a large deviation result for the measures $Z_n$ as well as a moderate deviation principle.
This paper studies: (i) the long time behaviour of the empirical distribution of age and normalised position of an age dependent critical branching Markov process conditioned on non-extinction; and (ii) the super-process limit of a sequence of age dependent critical branching Brownian motions.
For a branching process in random environment it is assumed that the offspring distribution of the individuals varies in a random fashion, independently from one generation to the other. For the subcritical regime a kind of phase transition appears. In this paper we study the intermediately subcritical case, which constitutes the borderline within this phase transition. We study the asymptotic behavior of the survival probability. Next the size of the population and the shape of the random environment conditioned on non-extinction is examined. Finally we show that conditioned on non-extinction…
