日本的通货膨胀和失业：1980 - 2050年
Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050
摘要：
对日本通货膨胀率p（t）和失业率UE（t）的演变进行了模拟。这两个变量都表示为劳动力变化率dLF/LF的线性函数。这些模型准确地描述了20世纪90年代的通货紧缩和21世纪初的通货紧缩时期。在日本，存在统计上可靠的（R2=0.68）菲利普斯曲线，其特征在于通货膨胀和失业之间的负相关关系及其同步演变：UE（t）= -0.94p（t）+0.045。实际上，自1982年以来，不断增长的失业率导致通货膨胀率下降。日本的通货膨胀率、失业率和劳动力之间也存在线性滞后的广义关系：p（t）= 2.8*dLF（t）/LF（t）+ 0.9*UE（t）- 0.0392。劳动力预测可以预测日本的通货膨胀和失业率：未来40年的CPI通胀率将为负值（每年-0.5%至-1%）。失业率将从2010年的4.0%上升到2050年的5.3%。
英文摘要：
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve, which is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from ~4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050.
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