二元劳动力市场与“菲利普斯曲线之谜”
Dual Labor Market and the "Phillips Curve Puzzle"
摘要：
低通胀一度受到政策制定者和公众的欢迎。然而，日本在20世纪90年代的经历改变了世界各地经济学家和中央银行对价格的共识。日本央行同时面临通货紧缩和零利率约束，难以实施有效的货币政策。这使得日本的经济停滞异常地延长。当今困扰中央银行的过低通胀被转化为“菲利普斯曲线之谜”。在美国及日本，在2008年全球金融危机后的大衰退复苏过程中，失业率稳步下降至普遍被视为低于自然失业率或NAIRU的水平。然而，通货膨胀率仍然很低。在本文中，我们考虑了一个二元劳动力市场的最小模型，以探讨经济中什么样的变化使菲利普斯曲线平坦。劳动者的议价能力水平、二级市场劳动力供给对工资的弹性、劳动力构成是解释菲利普斯曲线趋平的主要因素。我们认为，我们在模型中考虑的变化，事实上，合理地使菲利普斯曲线在最近几年变得平坦。
英文摘要：
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest bound at the same time, Bank of Japan had difficulty in conducting effective monetary policy. It made Japan's stagnation unusually prolonged. Too low inflation which annoys central banks today is translated into the "Phillips curve puzzle". In the US and Japan, in the course of recovery from the Great Recession after the 2008 global financial crisis, the unemployment rate had steadily declined to the level which was commonly regarded as lower than the natural rate or NAIRU. And yet, inflation stayed low. In this paper, we consider a minimal model of dual labor market to explore what kind of change in the economy makes the Phillips curve flat. The level of bargaining power of workers, the elasticity of the supply of labor to wage in the secondary market, and the composition of the workforce are the main factors in explaining the flattening of the Phillips curve. We argue that the changes we consider in the model, in fact, has plausibly made the Phillips curve flat in recent years.
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