为什么发达国家的价格通胀被系统性地低估
Why price inflation in developed countries is systematically underestimated
摘要：
安格斯·麦迪逊（Angus Maddison）编制了大量关于实际人均国内生产总值的历史数据集。该数据集涵盖了自1870年以来发达国家的连续年度估计数。各个经济体的所有时间序列在1940年至1950年之间都有明显的结构性突变。1940年之前和1950年之后的行为可以通过线性时间趋势准确地近似（R2从0.7到0.99）。突变前后回归线的相应斜率相差4（瑞士）至19（西班牙）。我们将早期的趋势外推到第二个区间，得到了比当前水平低得多的2011年实际人均GDP估计值：从2.4倍（瑞士）到5.0倍（日本）。当当前的线性趋势外推到过去时，它们会在1908年（瑞士）和1944年（日本）之间截取零线。1940年以前和1950年以后的估算程序之间可能存在内部冲突。对这种差异的合理解释是，发达国家的国内生产总值平减指数自1950年以来一直被严重低估。在美国，GDP平减指数被低估了1.4倍。这正是美联储控制的利率与通货膨胀率的比率。因此，当对GDP平减指数的偏差进行校正时，美联储实际上将其利率保持在真实价格通胀水平。
英文摘要：
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after 1950 can be accurately (R2 from 0.7 to 0.99) approximated by linear time trends. The corresponding slopes of regressions lines before and after the break differ by a factor of 4 (Switzerland) to 19 (Spain). We have extrapolated the early trends into the second interval and obtained much lower estimates of real GDP per capita in 2011: from 2.4 (Switzerland) to 5.0 (Japan) times smaller than the current levels. When the current linear trends are extrapolated into the past, they intercept the zero line between 1908 (Switzerland) and 1944 (Japan). There is likely an internal conflict between the estimating procedures before 1940 and after 1950. A reasonable explanation of the discrepancy is that the GDP deflator in developed countries has been highly underestimated since 1950. In the USA, the GDP deflator is underestimated by a factor of 1.4. This is exactly the ratio of the interest rate controlled by the Federal Reserve and the rate of inflation. Hence, the Federal Reserve actually retains its interest rate at the level of true price inflation when corrected for the bias in the GDP deflator.
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