西欧的失业和通货膨胀：边界元法解
Unemployment and inflation in Western Europe: solution by the boundary element method
摘要：
使用工程和科学中的边界元法的模拟，我们分析和模拟失业率在奥地利，意大利，荷兰，瑞典，瑞士和美国作为通货膨胀和劳动力变化的函数。最初，将失业与通货膨胀和劳动力联系起来的模型是在奥地利、加拿大、法国、德国、日本和美国开发和成功测试的。这两个变量的自回归特性都不能用来预测它们的演变。从这个意义上说，该模型是一个自洽的和完全确定的一个没有任何随机成分（外部冲击），除了与测量误差和测量单位的变化。尽管如此，该模型解释了失业率和通货膨胀率的65%至95%的变化。对于意大利，失业率是在9年的时间范围内预测的，1973年至2006年期间的伪样本外均方根预测误差为0.55%。可以预期，失业率将自2008年以来持续增长，到2012年将达到11.4%。2012年后，意大利的失业率将开始下降。
英文摘要：
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor force was developed and successfully tested for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Autoregressive properties of neither of these variables are used to predict their evolution. In this sense, the model is a self-consistent and completely deterministic one without any stochastic component (external shocks) except that associated with measurement errors and changes in measurement units. Nevertheless, the model explains between 65% and 95% of the variability in unemployment and inflation. For Italy, the rate of unemployment is predicted at a time horizon of nine years with pseudo out-of-sample root-mean-square forecasting error of 0.55% for the period between 1973 and 2006. One can expect that the u nemployment will be growing since 2008 and will reach 11.4% near 2012. After 2012, unemployment in Italy will start to descend.
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