We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second stage we modelled the unconditional variance of fluctuations around the mean. Now we address the question of how to model the autocorrelations in the standardised fluctuations. We perform a thorough diagnostic analysis of these fluctuations, and fit a type of AR(1) model. We then assess the goodness of fit of this model in a number of ways, including an out-of-sample comparison with a simpler model, an in-sample residual analysis, and a comparison of simulated tracks from the model with the observed tracks. Broadly speaking, the model captures the behaviour of observed hurricane tracks. In detail, however, there are a number of systematic errors.
We describe results from the fifth stage of a project to build a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks. The previous stages considered genesis and the shape of tracks. We now consider in more detail how to represent the lysis (death) of tropical cyclones. Improving the lysis model turns out to bring a significant improvement to the track model overall.
Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all cyclones) should increase. Yet, the highest relative proportional increase in incidence occurred in category 3 cyclones. The highest relative proportional decrease occurred in category 5 cyclones. This inference is not due to different treatment of measurement error. It is plausibly due to lower power for relatively rarer category 5 cyclones.
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of arbitrary grid boxes, and the spatial smoothing of the historical data is constructed optimally according to a clearly defined merit function.
Powered flights in the form of manned or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been flying into tropical cyclones to obtain vital atmospheric measurements with flight duration typically lasting between 12 and 36 hours. Convective vertical motion properties of tropical cyclones have previously been studied. This work investigates the possibility to achieve persistent flight by harnessing the generally pervasive updrafts in the eyewall of tropical cyclones. A sailplane UAV capable of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) is proposed and its flight characteristics simulated. Results suggest that th…
Tropical cyclones and cyclogenesis are active areas of research. Chute-operated dropsondes jointly developed by NASA and NCAR are capable of acquiring high resolution vertical wind profile of tropical cyclones. This paper proposes a chute-free vertical retardation technique (termed as spinsonde) that can accurately measure vertical wind profile. Unlike the expendable dropsondes, the spinsonde allows multi-cycle measurement to be performed within a single flight. Proof of principle is demonstrated using a simulation software and results indicate that the GPS ground speed correlates with the win…
Tropical Cyclone Viyaru, formerly known as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen was a rapidly intensifying, category 01B storm that made landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh on the 16th of May, 2013. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical cyclone to cumulus physics parametrization is carried out with a view to determine the best cumulus physics option for prediction of the cyclones track, timing, and central pressure evolution in the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, the tropical cyclone Viyaru has been simulated by WRF ARW in a nested domain with NCEP Global Final Analysis(FNL) da…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO - TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestima…
The prediction skill of a numerical model can be enhanced by calibrating the sensitive parameters that significantly influence the model forecast. The objective of the present study is to improve the prediction of surface wind speed and precipitation by calibrating the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model parameters for the simulations of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region. Ten tropical cyclones across different intensity categories between 2011 and 2017 are selected for the calibration experiments. Eight sensitive model parameters are calibrated by minimizing the predicti…
Insights from Ex-Typhoon Halong (2025) -- An Arctic Cyclone of Tropical Origin
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；University of Alaska Fairbanks（阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校）；Naval Research Laboratory（海军研究实验室）；National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research（美国国家科学基金会国家大气研究中心）
It has recently been shown that an interesting inverse relationship exists between the strength of the overturning in the regional boreal Hadley circulation and tropical cyclone genesis and lifetime maximum intensity latitudes in the eastern North Pacific. One of the particularly curious aspects of this association is its uniqueness to this ocean basin. We show here that this result can be understood as the outcome of an equatorward shift in the local Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moderate reduction of tropical vertical shear. These two factors are not necessarily concomitant. Th…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal distribution for the residuals when computing innovations, even though we have demonstrated that their distribution is not normal. Here, we test to see if the track model can be improved by including more realistic non-normal innovations. The results are mixed. Some features of the model improve, but others slightly worsen.
Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves at and after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for the time-dependent and equilibrium response of storm intensity have been tested over the open ocean but not yet to be applied to storms after landfall. Recent work examined the transient response of the tropical cyclone low-level wind field to instantaneous surface roughening or drying in idealized axisymmetric f-plane simulations. Here, experiments testing combined surface roughening a…
Secondary eyewalls occur in 70% of major tropical cyclones (TCs), and are associated with rapid changes in storm intensity and rapid broadening of strong winds. While mechanisms of secondary eyewall formation have been investigated from various perspectives, the explicit conditions on which secondary eyewalls occur in TCs remain veiled, leaving substantial uncertainties in TC intensity forecast, especially for the most extreme events. In this study, we present a simple diagnostic, in form of a singularity, for secondary eyewall occurrence in TCs. The diagnostic is solely dependent on three bas…
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length scale, and we derive the optimum value for this parameter using a jackknife. The main purpose of this model is as a starting point for developing a statistical model of hurricanes for use in the estimation of the wind, rainfall and flooding risks. The model also acts as an optimal filtering tool for estimating mean hurricane tracks.
This paper discusses some basic concepts that arise in the study of the tropical cyclone frictional boundary layer. Part I discusses the concepts of asymptotic triangular waves and asymptotic N-waves in the context of the nonlinear advection equation and Burgers' equation. Connections are made between triangular waves and single eyewalls, and between N-waves and double eyewalls. In Part II, analytical solutions of a line-symmetric, $f$-plane, slab model of the atmospheric boundary layer are presented. The boundary layer flow is forced by a specified pressure field and initialized with $u$ and …
The heat engine model of tropical cyclones describes a thermally direct overturning circulation. Outflowing air slowly subsides as radiative cooling to space balances adiabatic warming, a process that does not consume any work. However, we show here that the lateral spread of the outflow is limited by the environmental deformation radius, which at high latitudes can be rather small. In such cases, the outflowing air is radially constrained, which limits how far downward it can subside via radiative cooling alone. Some literature has invoked the possibility of `mechanical subsidence' or `forced…
The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanisms, the cyclone can be related to quasi-tropical cyclones.
The north Indian Ocean accounts for 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually. Despite the small fraction of cyclones, some of the most devastating cyclones have formed in this basin, causing extensive damage to the life and property in the north Indian Ocean rim countries. In this review article, we highlight the advancement in research in terms of ocean-atmosphere interaction during cyclones in the north Indian Ocean and identify the gap areas where our understanding is still lacking.
Characterizing the Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Thermal Structure: A Tropical Cyclone Thermal Phase Space
Lanzhou University（兰州大学）；Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学）；Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院青藏高原研究所）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；China Meteorological Administration（中国气象局）
Rapid intensification (RI) is likely the most crucial contributor to the development of strong tropical cyclones and the largest source of prediction error resulting in great threats to life and property, which can become more threatening with proximity to landfall. While enormous efforts have been devoted to studying the basin-wide fluctuation, temporal-spatial variations of global RI events remain uncertain. Here, we show that, compared with open oceans where the annual RI counts do not show any significant change, the coastal offshore regions within 400 km from the coastline host significan…
Recent work found evidence using aquaplanet experiments that tropical cyclone size on Earth is limited by the Rhines scale, which depends on the planetary vorticity gradient, $β$. This study aims to examine how the Rhines scale limits the size of an individual tropical cyclone. The traditional Rhines scale is first re-expressed as a vortex Rhines scale and Rhines speed to characterize how wave effects vary with radius in a vortex whose wind profile is known. Experiments are performed using a simple barotropic model on a $β$-plane initialized with a TC-like axisymmetric vortex defined using a r…
This paper reports on the preliminary simulation work for a 1-meter class tropical cyclone UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) based on the Formula-One AR-6 Endeavor full-sized airplane. Variants with different wing span are evaluated using the popular RealFlight radio-control simulator. The 84 cm wing-span platform achieves a maximum cruising speed (Vh) of 407 kmh-1 and demonstrates responsive flight controls throughout its flight envelope even in sustained wind speed of 225 kmh-1. Being a small and agile UAV, it can be flown below the storm to measure surface wind directly and avoid possible uncer…
It is well known that rapid changes in tropical cyclone motion occur during interaction with extratropical waves. While the translation speed has received much attention in the published literature, acceleration has not. Using a large data sample of Atlantic tropical cyclones, we formally examine the composite synoptic-scale patterns associated with tangential and \curvature components of their acceleration. During periods of rapid tangential acceleration, the composite tropical cyclone moves poleward between an upstream trough and downstream ridge of a developing extratropical wavepacket. The…
The near universal references to the above paper by most of the major US media outlets and blogs since Katrina and Rita made US landfall requires a response from a few of us who study hurricanes. Having been involved with hurricane research and forecasting for nearly 50 years, I feel I have an obligation to offer comments on this paper's findings which, in my view, are not valid. This paper concludes that global tropical cyclone net power dissipation (or friction times wind) taken to be proportional to the sum of each cyclone's individual 6-hour track period maximum wind speed (Vmax^3) has und…
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder-derived Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI) was originally developed and implemented to assess the potential magnitude of convective downbursts over the central and eastern continental United States. The WMSI algorithm incorporates convective available potential energy (CAPE), to parameterize static instability, as well as the vertical theta-e (equivalent potential temperature) difference (TeD) between the surface and mid-troposphere to infer the presence of a mid-level dry air layer. It has been noted with two recent landfa…
Crucial role of subsurface ocean variability in tropical cyclone genesis
School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学海洋学院）；Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)（南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海））；Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University（台湾大学大气科学系）；State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院南海海洋研究所热带海洋学国家重点实验室）；Global Ocean and Climate Research Center, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院南海海洋研究所全球海洋与气候研究中心）；Guangdong Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院南海海洋研究所广东省海洋遥感重点实验室）；Frontier Science Centre for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES), Ocean University of China（中国海洋大学深海多圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心）；Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China（中国海洋大学物理海洋学实验室）；Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii（夏威夷大学大气科学系）；Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland（马里兰大学大气与海洋科学系）；Inter-Disciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（印度孟买理工学院气候研究跨学科项目）；Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University（普林斯顿大学土木与环境工程系）
Watch an AI Weather Model Learn (and Unlearn) Tropical Cyclones
Colorado State University（科罗拉多州立大学）；Boston University（波士顿大学）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attempt to model the unconditional variance of fluctuations around the mean. The variance models we describe use a semi-parametric nearest neighbours approach in which the optimal averaging length-scale is estimated using a jack-knife out-of-sample fitting procedure. We test three different models. These models consider the variance structure of the deviations from the unconditional mean track to be isotropic, anisotropic …
Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy of communities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africa and Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model to perform a series of simulations for tropical cyclone Enawo with the aim of investigating the effect of an increase or decrease (by 2$^{\circ}C$) in sea surface temperature (SST) on the intensity of the tropical cyclone (using windspeed, precipitation and pressure as measures of cyclone intensity). The experiment uses the data from European Centre for Medium-Range …
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack of basic understanding regarding the intrinsic nature of tropical cyclone genesis and evolution. It is known that tropical cyclones involve more than a passive response to changing external forcing, but it is not clear which dynamic behaviour best describes them. Here we present a new approach based on the application of the power dissipation index (PDI), wh…
It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall…
Unexpected limitation of tropical cyclone genesis by subsurface tropical central-north Pacific during El Niño
School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学海洋学院）；Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)（南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海））；State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院南海海洋研究所热带海洋环境国家重点实验室）；Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University（台湾大学大气科学系）；Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland（马里兰大学大气与海洋科学系）；Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay（印度孟买理工学院）
The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The well known tendency of vorticity to self-organization, an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids, is part of the full dynamics, but its description requires particular methods. The general framework for the thermodynamical and mechanical processes is based on conservation laws while the vorticity self-organization needs a variational approach. It is difficult to estimate to what extent the vorticity self-organization (a purely k…
We show a parallelism between the expansion and compression of the atmosphere in the secondary cycle of a tropical cyclone with the fast expansion and compression of wet air in a bottle. We present a simple model in order to understand how the system (cyclone) draws energy from the air humidity. In particular we suggest that the upward (downward) expansion (compression) of the warm (cold) moist (dry) air follows a polytropic process, $PV^β$= constant. We show both experimentally and analytically that $β$ depends on the initial vapor pressure in the air. We propose that the adiabatic stages in …
On the possible role of condensation-related hydrostatic pressure adjustments in intensification and weakening of tropical cyclones
Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute（彼得堡核物理研究所理论物理部）；Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学高等研究院）
IIIT Delhi（德里印度理工学院信息技术学院）；Shaheed Bhagat Singh College, University of Delhi（德里大学沙希德·巴格特·辛格学院）；University of Delhi（德里大学）
Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive natural phenomena on earth. Tropical storms and heavy rains can cause floods, which lead to human lives and economic loss. Devastating winds accompanying cyclones heavily affect not only the coastal regions, even distant areas. Our study focuses on the intensity estimation, particularly cyclone grade and maximum sustained surface wind speed (MSWS) of a tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean. We use various machine learning algorithms to estimate cyclone grade and MSWS. We have used the basin of origin, date, time, latitude, l…
Studies on Sun-climate connection have been carried out for several decades, and almost all of them focused on the effects of solar total irradiation energy. As the second major terrestrial energy source from outer space, the solar wind energy flux exhibits more significant long-term variations. However, its link to the global climate change is rarely concerned and remain a mystery. As a fundamental and important aspect of the Earth's weather and climate system, tropical cyclone activity has been causing more and more attentions. Here we investigate the possible modulation of the total energy …
The present study focuses on identifying the parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that strongly influence the prediction of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region. Three global sensitivity analysis (SA) methods namely the Morris One-at-A-Time (MOAT), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and surrogate-based Sobol' are employed to identify the most sensitive parameters out of 24 tunable parameters corresponding to seven parameterization schemes of the WRF model. Ten tropical cyclones across different categories, such as cyclonic storms, seve…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index, there is high probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years; but the rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little…
Inland tropical cyclone (TC) impacts due to high winds and rainfall-induced flooding depend strongly on the evolution of the wind field and precipitation distribution after landfall. However, research has yet to test the detailed response of a mature TC and its hazards to changes in surface forcing in idealized settings. This work tests the transient response of an idealized hurricane to instantaneous transitions in two key surface properties associated with landfall: surface roughening and drying. Simplified axisymmetric experiments are performed in CM1 where surface drag coefficient and evap…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the tropical North Atlantic being in either the 19 hottest or the 19 coldest years in the period 1950-2005. For each conditioning many synthetic TCs are generated and landfall rates computed. Compared to direct analysis of historical landfall, the track model reduces the sampling error by projecting information from the entire basin onto the coast. There are 46% mo…
