PepC-Global：一种具有增强样本外技能和气候敏感陆上衰减的盆地调优概率热带气旋模型
PepC-Global: A Basin-Tuned Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Model with Enhanced Out-of-Sample Skill and Climate-Sensitive Over-Land Decay
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- Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
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中文总结 AI 辅助
PepC-Global是一种盆地调优的概率热带气旋模型，通过耦合随机过程模拟生成、路径和强度，在样本外测试中优于线性模型，并具有气候敏感的陆上衰减，适用于风险评估和未来气候研究。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
我们提出了PepC-Global，这是普林斯顿环境依赖概率热带气旋（PepC）框架的全球版本，该框架在单一统一的热带气旋气候学模型中独特地实现了盆地级调优。PepC-Global将热带气旋气候学表示为耦合随机过程，将生成、路径和强度与大尺度环境预测因子相关联。在样本外测试中，生成、路径和强度模块均优于广泛使用的线性模型。强度模块还包含环境依赖的陆上衰减模型，比传统固定衰减率方法对气候变化信号具有更高的敏感性。与观测的系统评估表明，PepC-Global能紧密再现盆地级生成频率、季节循环、年际变率和空间分布。该模型还准确捕捉盆地级路径模式、沿海岸线登陆频率以及强度统计，包括生命周期最大强度和登陆强度分布。PepC-Global为概率热带气旋灾害和风险评估提供了多功能工具，并为研究未来气候情景下热带气旋活动的变化提供了实用框架。
英文摘要
We present PepC-Global, a global version of the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) framework that uniquely implements basin-wise tuning within a single unified tropical cyclone climatology model. PepC-Global represents tropical cyclone climatology as a coupled stochastic process linking genesis, track, and intensity conditioned on large-scale environmental predictors. Each of the genesis, track, and intensity modules outperforms widely used linear models in out-of-sample tests. The intensity module also incorporates an environment-dependent over-land decay model, offering greater sensitivity to climate change signals than conventional fixed decay rate approaches. Systematic evaluation against observations demonstrates that PepC-Global closely reproduces genesis basin-wise frequency, seasonal cycles, interannual variability, and spatial distributions. The model also accurately captures basin-wise track patterns, along-coastline landfall frequency, and intensity statistics including lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity distributions. PepC-Global provides a versatile tool for probabilistic tropical cyclone hazard and risk assessment and a practical framework for investigating changes in tropical cyclone activity across future climate scenarios.
