发表机构
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究揭示热带气旋登陆角度是沿海风险中被忽视的维度，高排放下全球近垂直登陆比例至2099年显著增加，且主要源于局部变化而非空间重分布。
AI 中文摘要
热带气旋的登陆角度强烈影响风暴潮的潜在风险，但其如何随气候变化仍属未知。从1980年到2024年，全球近垂直登陆的比例呈现微弱且统计上不显著的增加，各海盆尺度上无显著趋势。由再分析资料驱动的PepC-Global模拟能够再现观测到的登陆角度和登陆前接近角度分布，以及近垂直比例在广泛地理区域上的变化。当由14个CMIP6模型的输出驱动时，模拟显示在1980-2024年间同样微弱且统计上不显著的增加，表明强迫贡献尚不能在内部变率之上被检测到。然而，在高排放情景下，全球近垂直比例到2099年显著增加，其中东太平洋沿岸的变化最强且空间上最一致，而在中等排放情景下则无显著的全球趋势。预计的增加主要源于各沿海地点近垂直比例的变化，而非登陆事件的空间重新分布。这些结果将登陆角度识别为热带气旋沿海风险变化中一个被忽视的维度，其在本世纪的演变取决于排放路径。
英文摘要
Tropical cyclone landfall angle strongly modulates storm-surge potential, but how it changes with climate remains unknown. From 1980 to 2024, the global fraction of near-perpendicular landfalls shows a weak, statistically insignificant increase, with no significant basin-scale trends. PepC-Global simulations driven by reanalyses reproduce observed landfall-angle and pre-landfall approach-angle distributions and broad geographic variations in the near-perpendicular fraction. When driven by output from 14 CMIP6 models, the simulations show a similarly weak and statistically insignificant increase during 1980-2024, suggesting a forced contribution not yet detectable above internal variability. Under high emissions, however, the global near-perpendicular fraction increases significantly through 2099, with the strongest and most spatially coherent changes along the eastern North Pacific, whereas no significant global trend emerges under intermediate emissions. The projected increase arises mainly from changes in near-perpendicular fractions at individual coastal locations rather than from a redistribution of landfalls. These results identify landfall angle as an overlooked dimension of changing tropical cyclone coastal risk, one whose evolution this century depends on the emissions pathway.
Comments38 pages, 12 figures
