热带气旋频率的不同预估中出现的共同变暖依赖性下降
A common warming-dependent decline emerges from divergent projections of tropical cyclone frequency
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- Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究利用CMIP6模式驱动概率模型，发现热带气旋频率呈变暖依赖性下降，非线性相互作用主导，且随升温线性增强。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
全球热带气旋频率将如何响应气候变暖仍不确定，预估结果既包括增加也包括减少。在此，我们使用14个第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）模式，在中等和高排放情景下驱动一个依赖环境的概率热带气旋模型。最初微弱的全球变化演变为更明显的世纪末下降，这由南半球下降的增强和北半球增加的减弱所驱动，并且在更高排放下更强。反事实分解表明，这种更强的下降并非由单个环境预测因子解释，其贡献大致相互抵消，而是由绝对涡度、垂直风切变、相对湿度和潜在强度之间的负非线性相互作用所致。在28个模式-情景预估中，频率趋势与全球变暖呈线性关系；以2°C为条件，95%置信区间从[-20.6%, +9.9%]收窄至[-8.2%, -2.1%]。这些结果通过共同的变暖依赖性下降调和了不同的预估。
英文摘要
How global tropical cyclone frequency will respond to climate warming remains uncertain, with projections spanning both increases and decreases. Here we drive an environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone model with 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under intermediate- and high-emissions scenarios. Initially weak global changes evolve into a clearer late-century decline, driven by a strengthening Southern Hemisphere decline and a diminishing Northern Hemisphere increase, and stronger under higher emissions. Counterfactual decomposition shows that this stronger decline is not explained by individual environmental predictors, whose contributions largely offset, but by negative nonlinear interactions among absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity and potential intensity. Across 28 model-scenario projections the frequency trend scales linearly with global warming; conditioning on 2 degrees C narrows the 95% confidence interval from [-20.6%, +9.9%] to [-8.2%, -2.1%]. These results reconcile divergent projections through a common warming-dependent decline.
