不同积云物理量对南亚地区的影响--以热带气旋维亚鲁为例
Impacts of different cumulus physics over south Asia region with case study tropical cyclone Viyaru
摘要：
热带气旋维亚鲁（英语：Viyaru）是一场于2013年5月16日在孟加拉国吉大港登陆的01 B级快速增强风暴。在这项研究中，热带气旋的数值模拟的积云物理参数化的敏感性进行，以确定最佳的积云物理选项预测的气旋路径，时间，和中心压力演变在孟加拉湾。为此，采用NCEP全球最终分析（FNL）资料作为初始和边界条件，在嵌套区域中使用WRF ARW对热带气旋Viyaru进行了数值模拟。模型域由一个父域和一个嵌套域组成。父域的分辨率为36 km，而嵌套域的分辨率为12 km。采用相同的微物理方案（WSM 3）、大气边界层方案、NOAH陆面方案，不同的积云参数化方案，进行了5次数值模拟。四个积云参数化方案是KF，BMJ，GF和Tiedtke，并在没有任何积云物理方案的情况下进行了一次模拟。模型模拟的结果与相应的分析或观测数据进行了比较。为了获得最佳结果，使用了联合台风警报中心和NASA热带气旋中心提供的观测数据进行比较。研究发现，不同积云物理方案对气旋路径、强度、风速、降水量、中心气压等有较敏感的结果。
英文摘要：
Tropical Cyclone Viyaru, formerly known as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen was a rapidly intensifying, category 01B storm that made landfall in Chittagong, Bangladesh on the 16th of May, 2013. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of tropical cyclone to cumulus physics parametrization is carried out with a view to determine the best cumulus physics option for prediction of the cyclones track, timing, and central pressure evolution in the Bay of Bengal. For this purpose, the tropical cyclone Viyaru has been simulated by WRF ARW in a nested domain with NCEP Global Final Analysis(FNL) data as initial and boundary conditions. The model domain consists of one parent domain and one nested domain. The resolution of the parent domain is 36 km while the nested domain has a resolution of 12 km. Five numerical simulations have been done with the same micro-physics scheme (WSM3), planetary boundary layer scheme,NOAH land surface scheme but different Cumulus Parametrization scheme. Four cumulus Parametrization schemes are KF, BMJ, GF and Tiedtke and one simulation was done without any cumulus physics scheme. The results of model simulations are compared with corresponding analysis or observation data. For best result data provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NASA tropical cyclone center was used as observed for comparison. After the study it was found that tracks, intensity, wind speed, precipitation, and central pressure of the cyclone have sensitive result with different cumulus physics schemes.
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