Mid-Infrared Radiation as a Short-Term Earthquake Precursor
M. Allameh-Zadeh, A. Ansari, A. Bahraminasab, K. Kaviani, A. Mahdavi Ardakani, H. Mehr-nahad, D. Mehr-shahi, M. D. Niry, M. Reza Rahimi Tabar, S. Tabatabai, N. … 展开作者
M. Allameh-Zadeh, A. Ansari, A. Bahraminasab, K. Kaviani, A. Mahdavi Ardakani, H. Mehr-nahad, D. Mehr-shahi, M. D. Niry, M. Reza Rahimi Tabar, S. Tabatabai, N. Taghavinia M. Vesaghi, F. Zamani
Recently it has been found by F. Freund that the granite under high pressure undergoes a phase transition from insulator to a p-type semiconductor. This phase transition is a key concept to understanding pre-earthquake phenomena. This effect accompanies with the radiation of the granite in the mid-infrared region. we were able to predict the recent earthquake in the south of Iran by monitoring this radiation.
It is demonstrate that the analysis of accuracy measurement of geomagnetic field and the behavior of local tide gravitational potential can serve as an earthquake precursor
We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detection of Precursors" (RDP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. This makes it possible to detect precursors undetectable by direct analysis. Possible mechanisms underlying RDP are outlined. RDP is described with a concrete example: we consider as short-term precursors the newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation range; and detect (retrospec…
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are very heterogeneous and less brittle; progressive failures of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a characteristic earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another characteristic earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its curre…
The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately one day and for the maximum- two days. The statistic evidence for reliability is based on of distributions of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2005 for Sofia region and 2004- 2005 for Skopje. The project for complex Balkan- Black Sea region NETWORK for earthquake prediction by using t…
Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this phenomenon is more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. Hypothetically, in case of availability of adequate methodological grounds, in the nearest future, earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emission might be declared as the main precursor of earthquake. In particular, permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth electromagnetic emission generate…
A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all magnitudes. We find that simple network motifs involving links to far aftershocks appear frequently before the three biggest earthquakes of the last 16 years in Southern California. Hence, networks could be useful to detect symptoms typically preceding major events.
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately +/-1 day and for the maximum- +/-2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2003 for Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local when, where earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accu…
In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component Dubna fluxgate magnetometer. The result of 2001-2004 Sofia monitoring confirmed many old papers for connection between Earth tide (Sun- Moon tides as earthquakes trigger) and jump (Geomagnetic quake) of daily averaged one minute standart deviation of the geomagnetic field. The second step (2004-present), which included analisys of three-component Danish fluxg…
The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are not widely accepted by the geoscience community at large because no one could explain their origins. We review a unifying theory for a solid-state mechanism, based on decades of research bridging semi-conductor physics, chemistry and rock physics. A synthesis has emerged that all pre-earthquake phenomena could trace back to one fundamental physical process: t…
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a general statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series. We consider an example of cross-correlation analysis for water salinity time series, an integral characteristic of the chemical composition of groundwater, and geoacoustic emissions recorded at the G-1 borehole on the Kamchatka peninsula in the time fra…
During earthquakes preparation periods significant disturbances in the ionospheric plasma density are often observed. These anomalies are caused by lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere interaction, particularly by the seismic electric field penetrating from the ground surface into the ionosphere. The seismic electric field produces electromagnetic EB drift changing plasma density over the epicenter region and magnetically conjugated area. The paper is devoted to analysis of regular Global Positioning System observations and revelation of seismo-ionospheric precursors of earthquakes in Total Elect…
A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative (precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary …
Radon monitoring has recently gained extensive attention among seismologists. It is now widely reported as a precursssory signal prior to occurrence of a seismic event. The enhanced estimation of radon in soil gas is basically attributed to the strain changes which arise within the earth surface. In this chapter, the role of radon as a precurssor is eleborated, acompanied by the anomalies which come across during observation. Additionally, the recent studies done in Himalayan Belt is also reviewd along with future perspectives in radon estimation.
A promising short term precursor of major earthquakes (EQ) is very crucial in saving people and preventing huge losses. Ez, atmospheric electrostatic field vertical component, under fair air conditions, is generally oriented downwards (positive). Anomalous negative Ez signals could be used as an indicator of a great number of radioactive gases which are released from great number of rock clefts just before major earthquakes. Enhanced emission of radon radioactive decay will produce an anomalously large number of ion pairs. The positive particles will be transported downward by the fair weather…
Recently, slow earthquakes (slow EQ) have received much attention relative to understanding the mechanisms underlying large earthquakes and to detecting their precursors. Low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) are a specific type of slow EQ. In the present paper, we reveal the relevance of LFEs to the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku-oki EQ) by means of cluster analysis. We classified LFEs in northern Japan in a data-driven manner, based on inter-time, the time interval between neighboring LFEs occurring within 10 km. We found that there are four classes of LFE that are characterized by median in…
It is given an attempt for statistical estimation of when earthquake prediction for Balkan- Black Sea region using the geomagnetic field signal. The preliminary test of the approach for England (Hartland), Turkey (Kandilli) and India (Alibag) regions is presented. The research step by step program for creating when, where and how earthquake prediction region Network system on the basis of the experimental data for geomagnetic field, electro-potential distribution in the Earth crust and atmosphere, temperature Earth crust distribution, gravitational anomaly map, season and day independent tempe…
The normalized raw data of the Earth's electric field, monitored at PYR, ATH, HIO monitoring sites in Greece, are studied as far as it concerns the presence of electric seismic precursors. Electric preseismic pulses, plateau-like anomalous electric field and Very Long Period (VLP) anomalies were detected prior to the occurrence of the July 1st, 2009 large (Ms = 6.3R) EQ in Greece. Further processing of the same data revealed the true form of the generated preseimic potential thus providing an indirect estimation of the time window of the occurrence of the large EQ. Finally, by correlating, at …
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic q…
The Earth's electric field, recorded by two different and distant monitoring sites located in Greece, is analyzed in terms of monochromatic signals (T=24h). The analysis is based on the mapping procedures borrowed from the study of non-linear dynamic systems and chaos. The specific analysis applied on the electric field recorded for some weeks before the occurrence of 3 large EQs which occurred in Greece shows some very interesting results. Long before the EQ occurrence the phase map generated by the uncorrelated each other signals recorded by a pair of distant monitoring sites is characterize…
We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different earthquake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. 'Forecasting' and 'prediction' of earthquakes are equivalent in this approa…
According to the presented work, VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions might be declared as the main precursor of earthquakes since based on these very emissions, it might predict ($M\ge 5$) inland earthquakes. As for ULF radiations, it governs some processes going on in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) system. By these points, VLF/LF/ULF electromagnetic emissions have to consider more universal fields than other geophysical field anomalies during the earthquake preparation period up to aftershocks extinction.
The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation frequency analysis gives the possibility simultaneously to determine all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction (magnitude, epicenter, and time of occurring). It is shown that the prediction of moderate and strong earthquakes is possible with great precision.
This paper discusses the GPS (Global Positioning System) observed TEC (Total Electron Content) variations prior to the M 9.0 Great Tohoku (Japan, Sendai) March 11, 2011 and M 7.1 Oct. 23, 2011 Turkey Van earthquakes as possible seismo-ionosphere precursors. We have formulated a set of the TEC phenomenological features often reported as precursors to strong earthquakes based on our experience and publications' analysis. This feature-set has been applied to the relative TEC deviations for time intervals March 08-11, 2011 and Oct. 20-23, 2011 preceding M 9.0 Great Tohoku (Japan) March 11 and Turk…
A search for the possible precursors of an earthquake and its effect on the data series of diverse geophysical parameters has been made in the mountain of Northern Tien Shan. The complex installation included the NM64 type neutron supermonitor, detectors of the environmental low-energy neutrons, the scintillation gamma-detector, the sensor of the local electric field, a seismograph, and a weather-station. The specialized data filtration methodic was elaborated with an enhanced sensitivity to the transient signals of seismic origin. On the eve of, and after a 5.4 magnitude earthquake the fine f…
EM emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kHz to MHz are produced by opening cracks, which can be considered as precursors of general fracture. An important feature, observed on both laboratory and geophysical scale, is that the MHz radiation systematically precedes the kHz one. Yet, the link between an individual EM precursor and a distinctive stage of the EQ preparation comprises a crucial open question. A recently proposed two-stage model on preseismic EM activity suggests that the MHz EM emission is due to the fracture of the highly heterogeneous system that surrounds the faul…
Electromagnetic (EM) emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kHz to MHz are produced by opening cracks, which can be considered as the so-called precursors of general fracture. We emphasize that the MHz radiation appears earlier than the kHz in both laboratory and geophysical scale. An important challenge in this field of research is to distinguish characteristic epochs in the evolution of precursory EM activity and identify them with the equivalent last stages in the earthquake (EQ) preparation process. Recently, we proposed the following two epochs/stages model: (i) The second ep…
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local "quake" is a precursor of future earthquake, which time is determined by the tide gravitational potential behavior. A Balkan Black Sea region Earthquake's "When, where" Prediction Network is proposed.
Based on several empirical evidence, a series of papers has advocated the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative Benioff strain (BS) increases as a power-law time-to-failure before the final event. This power law reflects a kind of scale invariance with respect to the distance to the critical point. A few years ago, on the basis of a fit of the cumulative BS released prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, Sornette and Sammis [1995] proposed that this scale invaria…
The variation of fractal dimension and entropy during a damage evolution process, especially approaching critical failure, has been recently investigated. A sudden drop of fractal dimension has been proposed as a quantitative indicator of damage localization or a likely precursor of an impending catastrophic failure. In this contribution, electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake are analysed to investigate whether they also present such sudden fractal dimension and entropy drops as the main catastrophic event is approaching. The pre-earthquake electromagnetic time ser…
Spatiotemporal Analysis for Frequency-Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes Across Mainland China: Comparing Classical and b-positive b-values Across Tectonic Regimes
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
Evidence for the triggering of earthquakes by tides has been largely lacking for the continents but detectable in the oceans where the tides are larger. By far the strongest tidal triggering signals are in volcanic areas of mid-ocean ridges. These areas offer the most promise for the study of this process, but even the most basic mechanism of tidal triggering at the ridges has been elusive. The triggering occurs at low tides, but as the earthquakes are of the normal faulting type, low tides should inhibit rather than encourage faulting. Here, treating the most well documented case, Axial Volca…
Following N.Kozyrev's idea about the influence of the gravitational fields of the Sun and the Moon on the Earth's crust, we consider a low-frequency resonance of the Earth's crust blocks is happening before the occurrence of the earthquake. The resonance affects several geophysical parameters and is associated with many short-term precursory phenomena; the most notable are the release of underground gases (radon), the air temperature rises, change of thermal radiation in the troposphere, and an increase in the electron density in the ionosphere. During the final stage of the earthquake genesis…
In this article we present examples of a wider study of space-time correlation of electron precipitation event of the Van Allen belts with the position and time of occurrence of strong (M>6.5) earthquakes. The study is based on the analysis of observations of electron bursts (EBs) with energies 70 - 2350 keV at middle geographic latitudes, which were detected by DEMETER satellite (at an altitude of ~700 km). The EBs show a relative peak-to-background increase usually < 100, they have a time duration ~0.5 - 3 min, energy spectrum with peaks moving in higher energies as the satellite moves towar…
In this letter we present preliminary results concerning precursors to the recent significant (Mw 6.7) earthquake (EQ) that took place in the region south of the Greek Island of Zakynthos (October 25, 2018). We show, in terms of fracture-induced electromagnetic emissions (EME), that the Earth system around the focal area was at critical state up to a few hours before the occurrence of the EQ. Importantly, departure from the critical state, in terms of the symmetry breaking phenomenon, was also identified in the EME recorded after the appearance of the last signatures of criticality. The analys…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of several hours) before an earthquake the Markov time scale $t_M$ increases sharply, hence providing an alarm for an impending earthquake. To distinguish a false alarm from a reliable one, we compute a second quantity, $T_1$, based on the concept of extended self-similarity of the data. $T_1$ also changes strongly before an earthquake occurs. An alarm is accepted …
Xu et al. [J. Asian Earth Sci. {\bf 77}, 59-65 (2013)] It has just been reported that approximately 2 months prior to the $M_w$9.0 Tohoku earthquake that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011 anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field have been observed in the vertical component at a measuring station about 135 km from the epicenter for about 10 days (4 to 14 January 2011). Here, we show that this observation is in striking agreement with independent recent results obtained from natural time analysis of seismicity in Japan. In particular, this analysis has revealed that an unprecedented minimu…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is +/-1 day for the minimum and +/-2 days for the maximum. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between predicted and occurred earthquake for the period 2001-2002 in Balkan, Black Sea region is given. Examples for…
In this paper we study the energy of ULF electromagnetic waves that have been recorded by the satellite DEMETER, during its passing over Haiti before and after a destructive earthquake. This earthquake occurred on 12/1/2010, at geographic Latitude 18.46o and Longitude 287.47o, with Magnitude 7.0 R. Specifically, we are focusing on the variations of energy of Ez-electric field component concerning a time period of 100 days before and 50 days after the strong earthquake. In order to study these variations, we developed a novel method that can be divided in two stages: first we filter the signal …
The earthquake of Skyros Island in Greece (26/7/2001, Ms = 6.1 R) was announced three days before its occurrence in a meeting organized by the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia on 2001. In this work a review is made on the results of the methodologies which were used for the analysis of the available data in order to utilize the specific prognosis. Of particular interest is the fact that the determined time of occurrence deviated for less than an hour (actually it was 41 minutes) from the actual occurrence time of the specific EQ. A similar example of another large EQ (Kythira, Greece, Ms =…
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detrended increments of the series reveals a pronounced change of the shapes of the probability density functions (PDF) of the series' increments. Before and close to an earthquake the shape of the PDF and the long-range correlation in the increments both manifest significant changes. For a moderate or large-size earthquake the typical time at which th…
We study the Earth's electric field monitored at PYR (Greece) monitoring site, for a period of more than six years (May 23rd, 2003 to September 7th, 2009). It is compared, in particular its oscillating component of T = 365 days, with the Perihelion - Aphelion dates of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, with the same component of the Earth's magnetic field, with the corresponding same period tidal oscillation and with the occurred large EQs of the same period of time. The obtained results suggest that the oscillating electric field component is generated by large scale piezoelectricity triggered…
The Andravida EQ, Greece (8/6/2008, Ms=7.0R) seismic parameters: location, time of occurrence and magnitude were determined "a posteriori" in an attempt to verify the predictability of the large EQs. The Earth's electric field, after its processing by de-noising techniques, was used, in conjunction with appropriate physical models, for the determination of the epicenter by triangulation. The time of occurrence was determined in very short-term mode by the use of the tidal waves (M1, K1) and the "strange attractor like" seismic electric precursor, while its magnitude was calculated by the appli…
In order to investigate the capability of the preseismic electric field "strange attractor like" precursor as a time predictor of a large EQ within a short time window (short-term prediction), the specific methodology was applied on the Earth's electric field recorded during a rather long seismically active period (December 1st, 2007 - April 30th, 2008) of Greece. During this period of time a number (8) of large (Ms > 5.5R) earthquakes took place. The particular analysis is presented in detail for the following EQs: the Monemvasia EQ (January 6th 2008, Ms = 6.6R), the Methoni EQs (February 14t…
Spatiotemporal correlations of the two-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) models of earthquakes with the long-range inter-block interactions are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The long-range interaction derived from an elasticd theory, which takes account of the effect of the elastic body adjacent to the fault plane, falls off with distance r as 1/r^3. Comparison is made with the properties of the corresponding short-range models studied earlier. Seismic spatiotemporal correlations of the long-range models generally tend to be weaker than those of the …
The analysis of satellite thermal images of the Earth's surface within the spectral range of 10.5-11.3 mkm has shown that over some linear structures of the Middle-Asian seismically active region there is observed a stable in time and space increasing intensity of the outgoing radiation flux as compared to contiguous blocks. A retrospective analysis of a continuous series of observations of the outgoing IR radiation flux has shown that in certain individual zones of some major tectonic dislocations there appear from time to time positive anomalies of IR radiation, for instance at the point of …
