It is given an attempt for statistical estimation of when earthquake prediction for Balkan- Black Sea region using the geomagnetic field signal. The preliminary test of the approach for England (Hartland), Turkey (Kandilli) and India (Alibag) regions is presented. The research step by step program for creating when, where and how earthquake prediction region Network system on the basis of the experimental data for geomagnetic field, electro-potential distribution in the Earth crust and atmosphere, temperature Earth crust distribution, gravitational anomaly map, season and day independent temperature depth distribution, water sources parameters (debit, temperature, chemical composition, radioactivity), gas emissions, ionosphere condition parameters, Earth radiation belt, Sun wind, crust parameters (strain, deformation, displacement) and biological precursors is proposed. The achievements of tidal potential modeling of Earth surface with included ocean and atmosphere tidal influences, many component correlation analysis and the nonlinear inverse problem methods in fluids dynamics and Maxwell equations are crucial. The today almost real time technologies GIS for archiving, analysis, visualization and interpretation of the data and non- linear inverse problem methods for building theoretical models for the parameter behaviors, correlations and dynamics have to be used.
We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detection of Precursors" (RDP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. This makes it possible to detect precursors undetectable by direct analysis. Possible mechanisms underlying RDP are outlined. RDP is described with a concrete example: we consider as short-term precursors the newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation range; and detect (retrospec…
Despite the enormous efforts towards searching for precursors, no precursors have exhibited real predictive power with respect to an earthquake thus far. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are very heterogeneous and less brittle; progressive failures of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a characteristic earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another characteristic earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its curre…
Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this phenomenon is more universal and reliable than other earthquake indicators. Hypothetically, in case of availability of adequate methodological grounds, in the nearest future, earth VLF/LF electromagnetic emission might be declared as the main precursor of earthquake. In particular, permanent monitoring of frequency spectrum of earth electromagnetic emission generate…
It is demonstrate that the analysis of accuracy measurement of geomagnetic field and the behavior of local tide gravitational potential can serve as an earthquake precursor
In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component Dubna fluxgate magnetometer. The result of 2001-2004 Sofia monitoring confirmed many old papers for connection between Earth tide (Sun- Moon tides as earthquakes trigger) and jump (Geomagnetic quake) of daily averaged one minute standart deviation of the geomagnetic field. The second step (2004-present), which included analisys of three-component Danish fluxg…
The starting point of the present review is to acknowledge that there are innumerable reports of non-seismic types of earthquake precursory phenomena that are intermittent and seem not to occur systematically, while associated reports are not widely accepted by the geoscience community at large because no one could explain their origins. We review a unifying theory for a solid-state mechanism, based on decades of research bridging semi-conductor physics, chemistry and rock physics. A synthesis has emerged that all pre-earthquake phenomena could trace back to one fundamental physical process: t…
A promising short term precursor of major earthquakes (EQ) is very crucial in saving people and preventing huge losses. Ez, atmospheric electrostatic field vertical component, under fair air conditions, is generally oriented downwards (positive). Anomalous negative Ez signals could be used as an indicator of a great number of radioactive gases which are released from great number of rock clefts just before major earthquakes. Enhanced emission of radon radioactive decay will produce an anomalously large number of ion pairs. The positive particles will be transported downward by the fair weather…
The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately one day and for the maximum- two days. The statistic evidence for reliability is based on of distributions of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2005 for Sofia region and 2004- 2005 for Skopje. The project for complex Balkan- Black Sea region NETWORK for earthquake prediction by using t…
The normalized raw data of the Earth's electric field, monitored at PYR, ATH, HIO monitoring sites in Greece, are studied as far as it concerns the presence of electric seismic precursors. Electric preseismic pulses, plateau-like anomalous electric field and Very Long Period (VLP) anomalies were detected prior to the occurrence of the July 1st, 2009 large (Ms = 6.3R) EQ in Greece. Further processing of the same data revealed the true form of the generated preseimic potential thus providing an indirect estimation of the time window of the occurrence of the large EQ. Finally, by correlating, at …
The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous determination of all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction. We have suggested the possible arrangements of the VLF/LF mobile network and offered a completely different view of seismic risk assessing and reducing the accumulated tectonic stress in the earthquake focus as well.
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, the radon surface concentration, the local heat flow, the ionosphere variables, the low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. In this study only geomagnetic data are used. Within the framework of geomagnetic q…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the presence of "surprise" large earthquakes, which in the past have strongly deteriorated the scores of existing models. We show this with pseudo-prospective experiments on synthetic as well as real data from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) database for California, with earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.95 that occurred between the period 1971-2016.…
A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all magnitudes. We find that simple network motifs involving links to far aftershocks appear frequently before the three biggest earthquakes of the last 16 years in Southern California. Hence, networks could be useful to detect symptoms typically preceding major events.
The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately +/-1 day and for the maximum- +/-2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002- 2003 for Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local when, where earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accu…
Recently it has been found by F. Freund that the granite under high pressure undergoes a phase transition from insulator to a p-type semiconductor. This phase transition is a key concept to understanding pre-earthquake phenomena. This effect accompanies with the radiation of the granite in the mid-infrared region. we were able to predict the recent earthquake in the south of Iran by monitoring this radiation.
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a general statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series. We consider an example of cross-correlation analysis for water salinity time series, an integral characteristic of the chemical composition of groundwater, and geoacoustic emissions recorded at the G-1 borehole on the Kamchatka peninsula in the time fra…
According to the presented work, VLF/LF electromagnetic emissions might be declared as the main precursor of earthquakes since based on these very emissions, it might predict ($M\ge 5$) inland earthquakes. As for ULF radiations, it governs some processes going on in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) system. By these points, VLF/LF/ULF electromagnetic emissions have to consider more universal fields than other geophysical field anomalies during the earthquake preparation period up to aftershocks extinction.
This is a reply to the Comment on ``Analysis of the spatial distribution between successive earthquakes'' by Maximilian Jonas Werner and Didier Sornette.
The paper represents the VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation as the earthquake's true precursor. It is shown that this parameter is capable of describing the fault formative process in the focal area. Besides, VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation frequency analysis gives the possibility simultaneously to determine all three characteristic parameters necessary for incoming earthquake prediction (magnitude, epicenter, and time of occurring). It is shown that the prediction of moderate and strong earthquakes is possible with great precision.
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as a random process of the Poisson type. Comparatively weak earthquakes are used as the underground clock, the ticking of which marks the course of proper time. The Poisson distribution is compared with the distributions for two sequences of strong earthquakes. One of the sequences is ordered by calendar time, and the second by proper time. The result of the t…
During earthquakes preparation periods significant disturbances in the ionospheric plasma density are often observed. These anomalies are caused by lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere interaction, particularly by the seismic electric field penetrating from the ground surface into the ionosphere. The seismic electric field produces electromagnetic EB drift changing plasma density over the epicenter region and magnetically conjugated area. The paper is devoted to analysis of regular Global Positioning System observations and revelation of seismo-ionospheric precursors of earthquakes in Total Elect…
By using the maximum entropy principle with Tsallis entropy and under the assumption that the gouge plays an active role in the triggering of earthquakes, we obtain a functional dependence for energy distribution function for earthquakes which fits very well with observations in the region of small energies. This distribution function is related to the size distribution function of fragments in the gouge.
The role of the moon in triggering earthquakes has been studied since the early 1900s. Theory states that as land tides swept by the moon cross fault lines, stress in the Earth's plates intensifies, increasing the likelihood of small earthquakes. This paper studied the association of the moon and sun with larger magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 5 and greater) using a worldwide dataset from the USGS. Initially, the positions of the moon and sun were considered separately. The moon showed a reduction of 1.74% (95% confidence) in earthquakes when it was 10 hours behind a longitude on earth and a …
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of earthquakes is constructed, which is time ordered and with links between the more correlated ones. Data pertaining to the California region has been used in the study. Recurrences to earthquakes are identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are analy…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches: The non homogeneous Poissonian and the non Poissonian one. In all cases we obtain either a power law or a power law damped by an exponential factor behaviour. This feature of the distribution makes impossible any prediction of earthquakes occurrence. Nevertheless it suggests the interpretation of the earthquake occurrence phenomenon as due to some non-linear d…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability (CP) methods we find that memory exists not only in inter-occurrence seismic records, but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Analysis of the conventional earthquake model (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences, ETAS) indicates that earthquake memory can be reproduced only for a narrow range of model's p…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state solution of the derived Langevin equation analytically attains the truncated exponential (TEX) distribution that is empirically characterized in many rupture models of earthquake events worldwide, as demonstrated by Thingbaijam and Mai (2016, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120150291). Our proposed stochastic dynamic faulting model for earthquake rupture intrinsically in…
In this work we have discovered that the global seismic activity undergoes a modulation with the period of 54 min. We assume that the modulation is caused by the fundamental spheroidal oscillations of the Earth 0S2. The hidden 54-min periodicity of earthquakes was revealed by analyzing of earthquake catalogs using the method of epoch superposition and the spectral method. Initially we discovered some signs of the impact of 0S2 oscillations on the earthquakes accidentally when searching for an antipodal effect of the strong earthquakes. Subsequently we found independent evidence in favor of our…
Following N.Kozyrev's idea about the influence of the gravitational fields of the Sun and the Moon on the Earth's crust, we consider a low-frequency resonance of the Earth's crust blocks is happening before the occurrence of the earthquake. The resonance affects several geophysical parameters and is associated with many short-term precursory phenomena; the most notable are the release of underground gases (radon), the air temperature rises, change of thermal radiation in the troposphere, and an increase in the electron density in the ionosphere. During the final stage of the earthquake genesis…
We investigated changes in the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter's law in and around the focal areas of earthquakes on March 20 and on May 1, 2021, with magnitude (M) 6.9 and 6.8, respectively, which occurred off the Pacific coast of Miyagi prefecture, northeastern Japan. We showed that the b value in these focal areas had been noticeably small, especially within a few years before the occurrence of the M6.9 earthquake in its vicinity, indicating that differential stress had been high in the focal areas. The coseismic slip of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake seems to have stopped just short of the ea…
A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a system reconfiguration (preparation) at different time and space scales. A nonstationarity factor introduced within the framework of flicker-noise spectroscopy, a statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series, is used as the dimensionless criterion for detecting qualitative (precursory) changes within relatively short time intervals in arbitrary …
In this paper, we used the Global Catalog of the National Earthquake Information Center US Geological Survey (NEIC USGS) for analysis of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes. We selected the unimodal part of the distribution and proposed an empirical formula that approximates this part in a wide range of magnitudes. The formula may be useful in studying the problems seismology, in which the expected effect is manifested in relatively weak earthquakes. The paper will be sent to the journal Geodynamics and Tectonophysics (ISSN 2078-502X). Keywords: planetary seismicity, Gutenberg-…
Radon monitoring has recently gained extensive attention among seismologists. It is now widely reported as a precursssory signal prior to occurrence of a seismic event. The enhanced estimation of radon in soil gas is basically attributed to the strain changes which arise within the earth surface. In this chapter, the role of radon as a precurssor is eleborated, acompanied by the anomalies which come across during observation. Additionally, the recent studies done in Himalayan Belt is also reviewd along with future perspectives in radon estimation.
Phenomenology is the unity of principles and methods of studying the essence of phenomena. This paper is a concise review of recent works in which the phenomenological ideas of physics are used to analyze earthquakes. An example of a phenomenological theory is thermodynamics. Maxwell's electrodynamics is also a perfect example of a phenomenological theory. The phenomenology of earthquakes has not yet reached such a level. So far, we have reached the status of prolegomena for the future phenomenology of earthquakes. The current state can be characterized as preliminary. Nevertheless, in this pa…
The Earth's electric field, recorded by two different and distant monitoring sites located in Greece, is analyzed in terms of monochromatic signals (T=24h). The analysis is based on the mapping procedures borrowed from the study of non-linear dynamic systems and chaos. The specific analysis applied on the electric field recorded for some weeks before the occurrence of 3 large EQs which occurred in Greece shows some very interesting results. Long before the EQ occurrence the phase map generated by the uncorrelated each other signals recorded by a pair of distant monitoring sites is characterize…
Unipolar pre-seismic magnetic field pulses have been observed first by Bleier et al. (2009) and Villante et al. (2010) and Nenovski et al. (2013). In the present study a detailed analysis of the pulses is conducted looking for signatures of transient signals similar to that recorded at the 2009 Aquila earthquake main shock (Nenovski, 2015). Various magnetic field data around the Aquila earthquake provide an instrumental basis for such an analysis. In addition to fluxgate magnetometer data (already examined in previous studies), overhauser magnetometer data are involved. The result is a detecti…
In this brief report we present evidence for the dynamics of the earthquake (EQ) preparation processes that led to two strong events (Mw>6) that took place in Durrës (Albania) and Chania (West-Crete, Greece) on 26 and 27-11-2019, respectively. Specifically, MHz fracto-electromagnetic emissions (EME) recorded by our telemetric stations presented critical fluctuations prior to each one of these EQs. Subsequently, the EME possibly related to each one of these EQs evolved differently towards the occurrence of the EQ event: the ones possibly related to Chania EQ departed from critical state accordi…
We show that the mesoscopic and transport characteristics of networks follow the same trends for the same type of the shear ruptures in terms of rupture speed while also comparing the results of three different friction experiments.The classified fronts obtained from a saw cut Westerly granite fault regarding friction network parameters show a clear separation into two groups indicating two different rupture fronts. With respect to the scaling of local ruptures durations with the networks parameters we show that the gap is related to the possibility of a separation between slow and regular fro…
Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this relation and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer events than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the non-trivial scaling of the number of triggered earthquakes emerges from the fractal spatial distribution of seismicity.
Recently, slow earthquakes (slow EQ) have received much attention relative to understanding the mechanisms underlying large earthquakes and to detecting their precursors. Low-frequency earthquakes (LFE) are a specific type of slow EQ. In the present paper, we reveal the relevance of LFEs to the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake (Tohoku-oki EQ) by means of cluster analysis. We classified LFEs in northern Japan in a data-driven manner, based on inter-time, the time interval between neighboring LFEs occurring within 10 km. We found that there are four classes of LFE that are characterized by median in…
The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect presence of diurnal and semi-diurnal periodicities in the sequence of aftershocks (M \geq 4). This suggests that large aftershocks in the fault zone of the Japan 2011 earthquake were strongly influenced by Earth tides.
We theoretically demonstrate that earthquake shield made of seismic crystal can damp down surface waves, which are the most destructive type for constructions. In the paper, seismic crystal is introduced in aspect of band gaps (Stop band) and some design concepts for earthquake and tsunami shielding were discussed in theoretical manner. We observed in our FDTD based 2D elastic wave simulations that proposed earthquake shield could provide about 0.5 reductions in magnitude of surface wave on the Richter scale. This reduction rate in magnitude can considerably reduce destructions in the case of …
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local "quake" is a precursor of future earthquake, which time is determined by the tide gravitational potential behavior. A Balkan Black Sea region Earthquake's "When, where" Prediction Network is proposed.
We drew attention to the analogy between the round-the-world seismic echo on the Earth and on the Sun. The phenomenon of echo on the Earth is observed during earthquakes. It was found that the main shock of earthquake excites a circular surface wave, which having rounded the Earth returns to the epicenter and stimulates a repeated earthquake (aftershock) 3 hours after the main shock. Apparently, something similar happens on the Sun during a chromospheric flare. We found signs of a small increase in flare brightness approximately one hour after reaching maximum brightness. The phenomenon is exp…
Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process' increments infinite variance and/or process' memory. The $b$-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a fall of the b-value observed before large earthquakes reflects an increase of the order parameter fluctuations upon approaching the critical point (mainshock). The increase of these fluctuations, however, is also influenced from the second origin of self-similarity, i.e., temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. This is supported by observations…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In nearly all generalizations of the ETAS model, the magnitudes of the background and the triggered earthquakes are assumed to follow Gutenberg-Richter law with the same exponent (\b{eta}-value). Furthermore, the magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes are always assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the triggering earthquake. Using an EM algor…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is +/-1 day for the minimum and +/-2 days for the maximum. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between predicted and occurred earthquake for the period 2001-2002 in Balkan, Black Sea region is given. Examples for…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical distributions of inter-event distances and times between earthquakes from different regional catalogs. We complement the analysis of previous authors (Touati et al., PRL 102, 168501 (2009)) and observe histograms best described by a superposition of two component distributions for "short" and "long" distances and times. Our results quantify the spatiotemporal clusteri…
Research on the earthquake occurrences using a statistical methodology based on point processes has mainly focused on the data featuring earthquake catalogs which ignores the effect of environmental variables. In this paper, we introduce inhomogeneous versions of the Cox process models which are able to quantify the effect of geological factors such as subduction zone, fault, and volcano on the major earthquake distribution in Sulawesi and Maluku, Indonesia. In particular, we compare Thomas, Cauchy, variance-Gamma, and log-Gaussian Cox models and consider parametric intensity and pair correlat…
We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson, geometric, logarithmic, and the negative binomial (NBD). The theoretical model is the `birth and immigration' population process. The first three distributions above can be considered special cases of the NBD. In particular, a point branching process along the magnitude (or log seismic moment) axis with independent events (immigrants) explains the magnitude/m…
We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in the physics of foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. Our theoretical calculations provide good fits to the data and show that universality is only approximate. We conclude that the distributions of inter-event times do not reveal more information than what is already known from the Gutenberg-Richter and the Omori power laws. Our results reinforces the view t…
We study the structural similarity of earthquake networks constructed from seismic catalogs of different geographical regions. A hierarchical clustering of underlying undirected earthquake networks is shown using Jensen-Shannon divergence in graph spectra. The directed nature of links indicates that each earthquake network is strongly connected, which motivates us to study the directed version statistically. Our statistical analysis of each earthquake region identifies the hub regions. We calculate the conditional probability of the forthcoming occurrences of earthquakes in each region. The co…
