We determine the variance-optimal hedge when the logarithm of the underlying price follows a process with stationary independent increments in discrete or continuous time. Although the general solution to this problem is known as backward recursion or backward stochastic differential equation, we show that for this class of processes the optimal endowment and strategy can be expressed more explicitly. The corresponding formulas involve the moment, respectively, cumulant generating function of the underlying process and a Laplace- or Fourier-type representation of the contingent claim. An example illustrates that our formulas are fast and easy to evaluate numerically.
For a large class of vanilla contingent claims, we establish an explicit Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition when the underlying is a process with independent increments (PII) and an exponential of a PII process. This allows to provide an efficient algorithm for solving the mean variance hedging problem. Applications to models derived from the electricity market are performed.
We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial Information. The underlying asset price process follows a continuous semimartingale and strategies have to be constructed when only part of the information in the market is available. We show that the initial mean variance hedging problem is equivalent to a new mean variance hedging problem with an additional correction term, which is formulated in terms of observable processes. We prove that the value process of the reduced problem is a square trinomial with coefficients satisfying a triangle system of backward stochastic differentia…
The results on the mean-variance hedging problem in Gouriéroux, Laurent and Pham (1998), Rheinländer and Schweizer (1997) and Arai (2005) are extended to discontinuous semimartingale models. When the numéraire method is used, we only assume the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the variance-optimal signed martingale measure (VSMM) is non-zero almost surely (but may be strictly negative). When discussing the relation between the solutions and the Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decompositions under the VSMM, we only assume the VSMM is equivalent to the reference probability.
We consider the discretized version of a (continuous-time) two-factor model introduced by Benth and coauthors for the electricity markets. For this model, the underlying is the exponent of a sum of independent random variables. We provide and test an algorithm, which is based on the celebrated Foellmer-Schweizer decomposition for solving the mean-variance hedging problem. In particular, we establish that decomposition explicitely, for a large class of vanilla contingent claims. Interest is devoted in the choice of rebalancing dates and its impact on the hedging error, regarding the payoff regu…
In a financial market model, we consider the variance-optimal semi-static hedging of a given contingent claim, a generalization of the classic variance-optimal hedging. To obtain a tractable formula for the expected squared hedging error and the optimal hedging strategy, we use a Fourier approach in a general multidimensional semimartingale factor model. As a special case, we recover existing results for variance-optimal hedging in affine stochastic volatility models. We apply the theory to set up a variance-optimal semi-static hedging strategy for a variance swap in both the Heston and the 3/…
We derive analytic expressions for the variance-optimal hedging strategy and its mean-square hedging error in the lognormal SABR and in the rough Bergomi model. In the SABR model, we show that the variance-optimal hedging strategy coincides with the Delta adjustment of Bartlett [Wilmott magazine 4/6 (2006)]. We show both mathematically and in simulation that the efficiency of the variance-optimal strategy (in comparison to simple Delta hedging) depends strongly on the leverage parameter rho and - in a weaker sense - also on the roughness parameter H of the model, and give a precise quantificat…
We consider hedging of a contingent claim by a 'semi-static' strategy composed of a dynamic position in one asset and static (buy-and-hold) positions in other assets. We give general representations of the optimal strategy and the hedging error under the criterion of variance-optimality and provide tractable formulas using Fourier-integration in case of the Heston model. We also consider the problem of optimally selecting a sparse semi-static hedging strategy, i.e. a strategy which only uses a small subset of available hedging assets. The developed methods are illustrated in an extended numeri…
For a large class of vanilla contingent claims, we establish an explicit Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition when the underlying is an exponential of an additive process. This allows to provide an efficient algorithm for solving the mean variance hedging problem. Applications to models derived from the electricity market are performed.
We give an explicit solution of robust mean-variance hedging problem in the single period model for some type of contingent claims. The alternative approach is also considered.
We consider a Poisson process $η$ on a measurable space $(\BY,\mathcal{Y})$ equipped with a partial ordering, assumed to be strict almost everwhwere with respect to the intensity measure $λ$ of $η$. We give a Clark-Ocone type formula providing an explicit representation of square integrable martingales (defined with respect to the natural filtration associated with $η$), which was previously known only in the special case, when $λ$ is the product of Lebesgue measure on $\R_+$ and a $σ$-finite measure on another space $\BX$. Our proof is new and based on only a few basic properties of Poisson p…
We solve the problem of mean-variance hedging for general semimartingale models via stochastic control methods. After proving that the value process of the associated stochastic control problem has a quadratic structure, we characterize its three coefficient processes as solutions of semimartingale backward stochastic differential equations and show how they can be used to describe the optimal trading strategy for each conditional mean-variance hedging problem. For comparison with the existing literature, we provide alternative equivalent versions of the BSDEs and present a number of simple ex…
This paper presents hedging strategies for European and exotic options in a Levy market. By applying Taylor's Theorem, dynamic hedging portfolios are con- structed under different market assumptions, such as the existence of power jump assets or moment swaps. In the case of European options or baskets of European options, static hedging is implemented. It is shown that perfect hedging can be achieved. Delta and gamma hedging strategies are extended to higher moment hedging by investing in other traded derivatives depending on the same underlying asset. This development is of practical importan…
We provide a new characterization of mean-variance hedging strategies in a general semimartingale market. The key point is the introduction of a new probability measure $P^{\star}$ which turns the dynamic asset allocation problem into a myopic one. The minimal martingale measure relative to $P^{\star}$ coincides with the variance-optimal martingale measure relative to the original probability measure $P$.
We study the pricing and the hedging of claim ψ which depends on the default times of two firms A and B. In fact, we assume that, in the market, we can not buy or sell any defaultable bond of the firm B but we can only trade defaultable bond of the firm A. Our aim is then to find the best price and hedging of ψ using only bond of the firm A. Hence, we solve this problem in two cases: firstly in a Markov framework using indifference price and solving a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, secondly, in a more general framework, using the mean variance hedging approach and solving backwar…
In the paper, a mean-square minimization problem under terminal wealth constraint with partial observations is studied. The problem is naturally connected to the mean-variance hedging problem under incomplete information. A new approach to solving this problem is proposed. The paper provides a solution when the underlying pricing process is a square-integrable semimartingale. The proposed method for the study is based on the martingale representation. In special cases, the Clark-Ocone representation can be used to obtain explicit solutions. The results and the method are illustrated and suppor…
We consider the problem of ESO valuation in continuous time. In particular, we consider models that assume that an appropriate random time serves as a proxy for anything that causes the ESO's holder to exercise the option early, namely, reflects the ESO holder's job termination risk as well as early exercise behaviour. In this context, we study the problem of ESO valuation by means of mean-variance hedging. Our analysis is based on dynamic programming and uses PDE techniques. We also express the ESO's value that we derive as the expected discounted payoff that the ESO yields with respect to an…
We analyse derivative securities whose value is NOT a deterministic function of an underlying which means presence of a basis risk at any time. The key object of our analysis is conditional probability distribution at a given underlying value and moment of time. We consider time evolution of this probability distribution for an arbitrary hedging strategy (dynamically changing position in the underlying asset). We assume log-brownian walk of the underlying and use convolution formula to relate conditional probability distribution at any two successive time moments. It leads to the simple PDE on…
Optimal B-robust estimate is constructed for multidimensional parameter in drift coefficient of diffusion type process with small noise. Optimal mean-variance robust (optimal V -robust) trading strategy is find to hedge in mean-variance sense the contingent claim in incomplete financial market with arbitrary information structure and misspecified volatility of asset price, which is modelled by multidimensional continuous semimartingale. Obtained results are applied to stochastic volatility model, where the model of latent volatility process contains unknown multidimensional parameter in drift …
We consider a time-consistent mean-variance portfolio selection problem of an insurer and allow for the incorporation of basis (mortality) risk. The optimal solution is identified with a Nash subgame perfect equilibrium. We characterize an optimal strategy as solution of a system of partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs), a so called extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) system. We prove that the equilibrium is necessarily a solution of the extended HJB system. Under certain conditions we obtain an explicit solution to the extended HJB system and provide the optimal trading strategies…
Variance-Optimal Hedging in the Rough Hawkes--Heston Model
School of Mathematical Sciences, Fudan University（复旦大学数学科学学院）；FinTech Thrust, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州）金融科技学域）
Kramkov and Sirbu (2006, 2007) have shown that first-order approximations of power utility-based prices and hedging strategies can be computed by solving a mean-variance hedging problem under a specific equivalent martingale measure and relative to a suitable numeraire. In order to avoid the introduction of an additional state variable necessitated by the change of numeraire, we propose an alternative representation in terms of the original numeraire. More specifically, we characterize the relevant quantities using semimartingale characteristics similarly as in Cerny and Kallsen (2007) for mea…
In this paper, we prove the global risk optimality of the hedging strategy of contingent claim, which is explicitly (or called semi-explicitly) constructed for an incomplete financial market with external risk factors of non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (NGOU) processes. Analytical and numerical examples are both presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our optimal strategy. Our study establishes the connection between our financial system and existing general semimartingale based discussions by justifying required conditions. More precisely, there are three steps involved. First, we firmly…
We study pricing and hedging under parameter uncertainty for a class of Markov processes which we call generalized affine processes and which includes the Black-Scholes model as well as the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as special cases. Based on a general dynamic programming principle, we are able to link the associated nonlinear expectation to a variational form of the Kolmogorov equation which opens the door for fast numerical pricing in the robust framework. The main novelty of the paper is that we propose a deep hedging approach which efficiently solves the hedging problem u…
In this work, we study the optimal discretization error of stochastic integrals, in the context of the hedging error in a multidimensional Itô model when the discrete rebalancing dates are stopping times. We investigate the convergence, in an almost sure sense, of the renormalized quadratic variation of the hedging error, for which we exhibit an asymptotic lower bound for a large class of stopping time strategies. Moreover, we make explicit a strategy which asymptotically attains this lower bound a.s. Remarkably, the results hold under great generality on the payoff and the model. Our analysis…
The classical discrete time model of proportional transaction costs relies on the assumption that a feasible portfolio process has solvent increments at each step. We extend this setting in two directions, allowing for convex transaction costs and assuming that increments of the portfolio process belong to the sum of a solvency set and a family of multivariate acceptable positions, e.g. with respect to a dynamic risk measure. We describe the sets of superhedging prices, formulate several no (risk) arbitrage conditions and explore connections between them. In the special case when multivariate …
Robust, or model-independent properties of the variance swap are well-known, and date back to Dupire and Neuberger, who showed that, given the price of co-terminal call options, the price of a variance swap was exactly specified under the assumption that the price process is continuous. In Cox and Wang we showed that a lower bound on the price of a variance call could be established using a solution to the Skorokhod embedding problem due to Root. In this paper, we provide a construction, and a proof of optimality of the upper bound, using results of Rost and Chacon, and show how this proof can…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities within a regenerative cycle. Exponential twisting based state-independent methods, which are effective in efficiently estimating these probabilities for light-tailed increments are not applicable when the increments are heavy-tailed. To address the latter case, more complex and …
This article extends the results of Fang & Zeitouni (2012a) on branching random walks (BRWs) with Gaussian increments in time inhomogeneous environments. We treat the case where the variance of the increments changes a finite number of times at different scales in [0,1] under a slight restriction. We find the asymptotics of the maximum up to an OP(1) error and show how the profile of the variance influences the leading order and the logarithmic correction term. A more general result was independently obtained by Mallein (2015b) when the law of the increments is not necessarily Gaussian. Howeve…
The so-called "supOU" processes, namely the superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes are stationary processes for which one can specify separately the marginal distribution and the dependence structure. They can have finite or infinite variance. We study the limit behavior of integrated infinite variance supOU processes adequately normalized. Depending on the specific circumstances, the limit can be fractional Brownian motion but it can also be a process with infinite variance, a Lévy stable process with independent increments or a stable process with dependent increments. We show t…
Since Hobson's seminal paper [D. Hobson: Robust hedging of the lookback option. In: Finance Stoch. (1998)] the connection between model-independent pricing and the Skorokhod embedding problem has been a driving force in robust finance. We establish a general pricing-hedging duality for financial derivatives which are susceptible to the Skorokhod approach. Using Vovk's approach to mathematical finance we derive a model-independent super-replication theorem in continuous time, given information on finitely many marginals. Our result covers a broad range of exotic derivatives, including lookback …
In this study we define a three-step procedure to relate the self-decomposability of the stationary law of a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to the law of the increments of such processes. Based on this procedure and the results of Qu et al. (2019), we derive the exact simulation, without numerical inversion, of the skeleton of a Variance Gamma, and of a symmetric Variance Gamma driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Extensive numerical experiments are reported to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our algorithms. These results are instrumental to simulate the spot price dynamics in…
We study the Langevin equation with stationary-increment Gaussian noise. We show the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality with Berry--Esseen bound of the so-called alternative estimator of the mean reversion parameter. The conditions and results are stated in terms of the variance function of the noise. We consider both the case of continuous and discrete observations. As examples we consider fractional and bifractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes. Finally, we discuss the maximum likelihood and the least squares estimators.
We study the maximal displacement of branching random walks in a class of time inhomogeneous environments. Specifically, binary branching random walks with Gaussian increments will be considered, where the variances of the increments change over time macroscopically. We find the asymptotics of the maximum up to an $O_P(1)$ (stochastically bounded) error, and focus on the following phenomena: the profile of the variance matters, both to the leading (velocity) term and to the logarithmic correction term, and the latter exhibits a phase transition.
We consider the mean-variance hedging problem under partial information in the case where the flow of observable events does not contain the full information on the underlying asset price process. We introduce a martingale equation of a new type and characterize the optimal strategy in terms of the solution of this equation. We give relations between this equation and backward stochastic differential equations for the value process of the problem.
SupOU processes are superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes with a random intensity parameter. They are stationary processes whose marginal distribution and dependence structure can be specified independently. Integrated supOU processes have then stationary increments and satisfy central and non-central limit theorems. Their moments, however, can display an unusual behavior known as "intermittency". We show here that intermittency can also appear when the processes have a heavy tailed marginal distribution and, in particular, an infinite variance.
Given a process with independent increments $X$ (not necessarily a martingale) and a large class of square integrable r.v. $H=f(X_T)$, $f$ being the Fourier transform of a finite measure $μ$, we provide explicit Kunita-Watanabe and Föllmer-Schweizer decompositions. The representation is expressed by means of two significant maps: the expectation and derivative operators related to the characteristics of $X$. We also provide an explicit expression for the variance optimal error when hedging the claim $H$ with underlying process $X$. Those questions are motivated by finding the solution of the c…
This paper considers a general stochastic SIR epidemic model driven by a multidimensional Levy jump process with heavy tailed increments and possible correlation between noise components. In this framework, we derive new sufficient conditions for disease extinction and persistence in the mean. Our method differs from previous approaches by the use of Kunita's inequality instead of the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous processes, and allows for the treatment of infinite Levy measures by the definition of new threshold values. An SIR model driven by a tempered stable process is pr…
Let $S=(S_n)$ be an oscillatory random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}$ with i.i.d. increments. Let $V_{\rm d}(x)$ be the renewal function of the strictly descending ladder height process for $S$. We obtain several sufficient conditions -- given in terms of the distribution function of the increment $S_1-S_0$ -- so that as $R\to\infty$ $$ (*) \quad P [ S\; \mbox{leaves $[0,R]$ on its upper side}\, |\, S_0=x] \, \sim\, V_{\rm d}(x)/V_{\rm d}(R)$$ uniformly for $0\leq x\leq R$. When $S$ is attracted to a stable process of index $0<α\leq 2$ and there exists $ρ= \lim P[S_n>0]$, the suffici…
We study an infinite system of independent symmetric random walks on a hierarchical group, in particular, the c-random walks. Such walks are used, e.g., in population genetics. The number variance problem consists in investigating if the variance of the number of "particles" N_n(L) lying in the ball of radius L at a given time n remains bounded, or even better, converges to a finite limit, as $L\to \infty$. We give a necessary and sufficient condition and discuss its relationship to transience/recurrence property of the walk. Next we consider normalized fluctuations of N_n(L) around the mean a…
In this paper we present a general mathematical construction that allows us to define a parametric class of $H$-sssi stochastic processes (self-similar with stationary increments), which have marginal probability density function that evolves in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. This construction is based on the theory of finite measures on functional spaces. Since the variance evolves in time as a power function, these $H$-sssi processes naturally provide models for slow and fast anomalous diffusion. Such a class includes, as particular cases, fract…
We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by Lévy processes, extending earlier works which focused on the Black-Scholes and continuous stochastic volatility models. Using recent results from the theory of large deviations on the path space for processes with independent increments, we compute an explicit asymptotic approximation for the variance of the pay-off under an Esscher-style change of measure. Minimizing this asymptotic variance using co…
