In this study we define a three-step procedure to relate the self-decomposability of the stationary law of a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to the law of the increments of such processes. Based on this procedure and the results of Qu et al. (2019), we derive the exact simulation, without numerical inversion, of the skeleton of a Variance Gamma, and of a symmetric Variance Gamma driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Extensive numerical experiments are reported to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of our algorithms. These results are instrumental to simulate the spot price dynamics in energy markets and to price Asian options and gas storages by Monte Carlo simulations in a framework similar to the one discussed in Cummins et al. (2017, 2018).
In this article we focus on the pricing of exchange options when the dynamic of logprices follows either the well-known variance gamma or the recent variance gamma++ process introduced in Gardini et al [19]. In particular, for the former model we can derive a Margrabe's type formula whereas, for the latter one we can write an "integral free" formula. Furthermore, we show how to construct a general multidimensional versions of the variance gamma++ processes preserving both the mathematical and numerical tractability. Finally we apply the derived models to German and French energy power markets:…
Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and fast methodologies for the simulation of the spot price dynamics modeled as the exponential of the sum of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and an independent pure jump process, where the latter one is driven by a compound Poisson process with (bilateral) exponentially distributed jumps. These methodologies are finally applied to the pricing of Asian options, gas storag…
This paper proposes a Monte Carlo technique for pricing the forward yield to maturity, when the volatility of the zero-coupon bond is known. We make the assumption of deterministic default intensity (Hazard Rate Function). We make no assumption on the volatility of the yield. We actually calculate the initial value of the forward yield, we calculate the volatility of the yield, and we write the diffusion of the yield. As direct application we price options on Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) in the Hull and White Model for the short interest rate. Tests results with Caps and Floors on 10 years…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian processes that are widely used in energy finance applications. We first specify their statistical properties calculating their characteristic function in closed form. This result is instrumental for the derivation of non-arbitrage conditions such that the spot dynamics is consistent with the forward curve without relying on numerical approximations or on numerica…
In recent years cryptocurrency trading has captured the attention of practitioners and academics. The volume of the exchange with standard currencies has known a dramatic increasing of late. This paper addresses to the need of models describing a bitcoin-US dollar exchange dynamic and their use to evaluate European option having bitcoin as underlying asset.
This paper presents a multinomial method for option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential Variance Gamma process. The continuous time Variance Gamma process is approximated by a discrete time Markov chain with the same firsts four cumulants. This approach is particularly convenient for pricing American and Bermudan options, which can be exercised at any time up to expiration date. Numerical computations of European and American options are presented, and compared with results obtained with finite differences methods and with the Black Scholes model.
We propose a new forward-backward stochastic differential equation solver for high-dimensional derivatives pricing problems by combining deep learning solver with least square regression technique widely used in the least square Monte Carlo method for the valuation of American options. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of our least square backward deep neural network solver and its capability to provide accurate prices for complex early exercise derivatives such as callable yield notes. Our method can serve as a generic numerical solver for pricing derivatives a…
We introduce signature payoffs, a family of path-dependent derivatives that are given in terms of the signature of the price path of the underlying asset. We show that these derivatives are dense in the space of continuous payoffs, a result that is exploited to quickly price arbitrary continuous payoffs. This approach to pricing derivatives is then tested with European options, American options, Asian options, lookback options and variance swaps. As we show, signature payoffs can be used to price these derivatives with very high accuracy.
Following the recent great advance of quantum computing technology, there are growing interests in its applications to industries, including finance. In this paper, we focus on derivative pricing based on solving the Black-Scholes partial differential equation by finite difference method (FDM), which is a suitable approach for some types of derivatives but suffers from the {\it curse of dimensionality}, that is, exponential growth of complexity in the case of multiple underlying assets. We propose a quantum algorithm for FDM-based pricing of multi-asset derivative with exponential speedup with…
We consider option pricing using a discrete-time Markov switching stochastic volatility with co-jump model, which can model volatility clustering and varying mean-reversion speeds of volatility. For pricing European options, we develop a computationally efficient method for obtaining the probability distribution of average integrated variance (AIV), which is key to option pricing under stochastic-volatility-type models. Building upon the efficiency of the European option pricing approach, we are able to price an American-style option, by converting its pricing into the pricing of a portfolio o…
This article presents a generic model for pricing financial derivatives subject to counterparty credit risk. Both unilateral and bilateral types of credit risks are considered. Our study shows that credit risk should be modeled as American style options in most cases, which require a backward induction valuation. To correct a common mistake in the literature, we emphasize that the market value of a defaultable derivative is actually a risky value rather than a risk-free value. Credit value adjustment (CVA) is also elaborated. A practical framework is developed for pricing defaultable derivativ…
In this paper, we develop a 4/2 stochastic volatility plus jumps model, namely, a new stochastic volatility model including the Heston model and 3/2 model as special cases. Our model is highly tractable by applying the Lie symmetries theory for PDEs, which means that the pricing procedure can be performed efficiently. In fact, we obtain a closed-form solution for the joint Fourier-Laplace transform so that equity and realized-variance derivatives can be priced. We also employ our model to consistently price equity and VIX derivatives. In this process, the quasi-closed-form solutions for future…
We investigate methods for pricing American options under the variance gamma model. The variance gamma process is a pure jump process which is constructed by replacing the calendar time by the gamma time in a Brownian motion with drift, which makes it a time-changed Brownian motion. In general, the finite difference method and the simulation method can be used for pricing under this model, but their speed is not satisfactory. So there is a need for fast but accurate approximation methods. In the case of Black-Merton-Scholes model, there are fast approximation methods, but they cannot be utiliz…
In this paper we derive a efficient Monte Carlo approximation for the price of path-dependent derivatives under the multiscale stochastic volatility models of Fouque \textit{et al}. Using the formulation of this pricing problem under the functional Itô calculus framework and making use of Greek formulas from Malliavin calculus, we derive a representation for the first-order approximation of the price of path-dependent derivatives in the form $\mathbb{E}[\mbox{payoff} \times \mbox{weight}]$. The weight is known in closed form and depends only on the group market parameters arising from the cali…
We discuss two numerical methods, based on a path integral approach described in a previous paper (I), for solving the stochastic equations underlying the financial markets: the Monte Carlo approach, and the Green function deterministic numerical method. Then, we apply the latter to some specific financial problems. In particular, we consider the pricing of a European option, a zero-coupon bond, a caplet, an American option, and a Bermudan swaption.
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices follows a tempered stable or a CGMY driven Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process. To this end, we first calculate the characteristic function of the transition law of such processes in closed form. This result is instrumental for the derivation of non-arbitrage conditions such that the spot dynamics is consistent with the forward curve. Moreover, based on the results of Cufaro Petroni and Sabino (2020), we also conceive efficient algorithms for the exact simulation of the skeleton of such processes and propose …
We give an upper bound on the resources required for valuable quantum advantage in pricing derivatives. To do so, we give the first complete resource estimates for useful quantum derivative pricing, using autocallable and Target Accrual Redemption Forward (TARF) derivatives as benchmark use cases. We uncover blocking challenges in known approaches and introduce a new method for quantum derivative pricing - the re-parameterization method - that avoids them. This method combines pre-trained variational circuits with fault-tolerant quantum computing to dramatically reduce resource requirements. W…
Derivatives on the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) have gained significant popularity over the last decade. The pricing of VIX derivatives involves evaluating the square root of the expected realised variance which cannot be computed by direct Monte Carlo methods. Least squares Monte Carlo methods can be used but the sign of the error is difficult to determine. In this paper, we propose new model independent upper and lower pricing bounds for VIX derivatives. In particular, we first present a general stochastic duality result on payoffs involving concave functions. This i…
This paper presents a new model for pricing financial derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral arrangements adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized contract. This framework is very useful for valuing outstanding derivatives. Using a unique dataset, we find empirical evidence that credit risk alone is not overly important in determining credit-related spreads. Only accounting for both collateral posting and credit risk can sufficiently explain unsecured credit costs. This finding suggests that failure to properl…
The present article revisits the Diffusion Operator Integral (DOI) variance reduction technique originally proposed in Heath and Platen (2002) and extends its theoretical concept to the pricing of American-style options under (time-homogeneous) Lévy stochastic differential equations. The resulting Jump Diffusion Operator Integral (JDOI) method can be combined with numerous Monte Carlo based stopping-time algorithms, including the ubiquitous least-squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm of Longstaff and Schwartz (cf. Carriere (1996), Longstaff and Schwartz (2001)). We exemplify the usefulness of o…
Using tools from spectral analysis, singular and regular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method for analytically computing the approximate price of a derivative-asset. The payoff of the derivative-asset may be path-dependent. Additionally, the process underlying the derivative may exhibit killing (i.e. jump to default) as well as combined local/nonlocal stochastic volatility. The nonlocal component of volatility is multiscale, in the sense that it is driven by one fast-varying and one slow-varying factor. The flexibility of our modeling framework is contrasted by the simplicity of…
We present a semi-static hedging algorithm for callable interest rate derivatives under an affine, multi-factor term-structure model. With a traditional dynamic hedge, the replication portfolio needs to be updated continuously through time as the market moves. In contrast, we propose a semi-static hedge that needs rebalancing on just a finite number of instances. We show, taking as an example Bermudan swaptions, that callable interest rate derivatives can be replicated with an options portfolio written on a basket of discount bonds. The static portfolio composition is obtained by regressing th…
We present a stochastic local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures. The aim of the model is to be able to recover the prices of derivative claims both on futures contracts and on indices on futures strategies. Numerical examples for calibration and pricing are provided for the S&P GSCI Crude Oil excess-return index.
In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel combination of multilevel Richardson-Romberg (ML2R) and importance sampling algorithm, with the aim of reducing the overall computational time, while achieving desired root-mean-squared error while pricing. We develop an idea to construct the Monte-Carlo estimator that deals with the parametric change of measure. We rely on the Robbins-Monro algorithm with projection, in order to approximate optimal change of measure parameter, for various levels of resolution in our multilevel algorithm. Furthermore, we propose incorporating discretization schemes…
In this paper we provide a valuation formula for different classes of actuarial and financial contracts which depend on a general loss process, by using the Malliavin calculus. In analogy with the celebrated Black-Scholes formula, we aim at expressing the expected cash flow in terms of a building block. The former is related to the loss process which is a cumulated sum indexed by a doubly stochastic Poisson process of claims allowed to be dependent on the intensity and the jump times of the counting process. For example, in the context of Stop-Loss contracts the building block is given by the …
In this paper, we consider the numerical pricing of financial derivatives using Radial Basis Function generated Finite Differences in space. Such discretization methods have the advantage of not requiring Cartesian grids. Instead, the nodes can be placed with higher density in areas where there is a need for higher accuracy. Still, the discretization matrix is fairly sparse. As a model problem, we consider the pricing of European options in 2D. Since such options have a discontinuity in the first derivative of the payoff function which prohibits high order convergence, we smooth this function …
This article presents a deep reinforcement learning approach to price and hedge financial derivatives. This approach extends the work of Guo and Zhu (2017) who recently introduced the equal risk pricing framework, where the price of a contingent claim is determined by equating the optimally hedged residual risk exposure associated respectively with the long and short positions in the derivative. Modifications to the latter scheme are considered to circumvent theoretical pitfalls associated with the original approach. Derivative prices obtained through this modified approach are shown to be arb…
In this paper, we study the valuation of American type derivatives in the stochastic volatility model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001). We characterize the value of such derivatives as the unique viscosity solution of an integral-partial differential equation when the payoff function satisfies a Lipschitz condition.
We describe a high performance parallel implementation of a derivative pricing model, within which we introduce a new parallel method for the calibration of the industry standard SABR (stochastic-αβρ) stochastic volatility model using three strike inputs. SABR calibration involves a non-linear three dimensional minimisation and parallelisation is achieved by incorporating several assumptions unique to the SABR class of models. Our calibration method is based on principles of surface intersection, guarantees convergence to a unique solution and operates by iteratively refining a two dimensional…
We use a path integral approach for solving the stochastic equations underlying the financial markets, and we show the equivalence between the path integral and the usual SDE and PDE methods. We analyze both the one-dimensional and the multi-dimensional cases, with point dependent drift and volatility, and describe a covariant formulation which allows general changes of variables. Finally we apply the method to some economic models with analytical solutions. In particular, we evaluate the expectation value of functionals which correspond to quantities of financial interest.
Local volatility models usually capture the surface of implied volatilities more accurately than other approaches, such as stochastic volatility models. We present the results of application of Monte Carlo (MC) and Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for derivative pricing and risk analysis based on Hyperbolic Local Volatility Model. In high-dimensional integration QMC shows a superior performance over MC if the effective dimension of an integrand is not too large. In application to derivative pricing and computation of Greeks effective dimensions depend on path discretization algorithms. The resu…
In this paper we propose an efficient method to compute the price of multi-asset American options, based on Machine Learning, Monte Carlo simulations and variance reduction technique. Specifically, the options we consider are written on a basket of assets, each of them following a Black-Scholes dynamics. In the wake of Ludkovski's approach (2018), we implement here a backward dynamic programming algorithm which considers a finite number of uniformly distributed exercise dates. On these dates, the option value is computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value, whi…
Pricing a multi-asset derivative is an important problem in financial engineering, both theoretically and practically. Although it is suitable to numerically solve partial differential equations to calculate the prices of certain types of derivatives, the computational complexity increases exponentially as the number of underlying assets increases in some classical methods, such as the finite difference method. Therefore, there are efforts to reduce the computational complexity by using quantum computation. However, when solving with naive quantum algorithms, the target derivative price is emb…
Using a Levy process we generalize formulas in Bo et al.(2010) for the Esscher transform parameters for the log-normal distribution which ensure the martingale condition holds for the discounted foreign exchange rate. Using these values of the parameters we find a risk-neural measure and provide new formulas for the distribution of jumps, the mean jump size, and the Poisson process intensity with respect to to this measure. The formulas for a European call foreign exchange option are also derived. We apply these formulas to the case of the log-double exponential distribution of jumps. We provi…
The use of non-translation invariant risk measures within the equal risk pricing (ERP) methodology for the valuation of financial derivatives is investigated. The ability to move beyond the class of convex risk measures considered in several prior studies provides more flexibility within the pricing scheme. In particular, suitable choices for the risk measure embedded in the ERP framework such as the semi-mean-square-error (SMSE) are shown herein to alleviate the price inflation phenomenon observed under Tail Value-at-Risk based ERP as documented for instance in Carbonneau and Godin (2021b). T…
Quantum Speedups for Derivative Pricing Beyond Black-Scholes
Global Technology Applied Research, JPMorganChase（摩根大通全球应用技术研究）；Center for Theoretical Physics – a Leinweber Institute, MIT（麻省理工学院莱因韦伯理论物理中心）；Quantitative Trading & Research, JPMorganChase（摩根大通量化交易与研究）
In this article, a three-time levels compact scheme is proposed to solve the partial integro-differential equation governing the option prices under jump-diffusion models. In the proposed compact scheme, the second derivative approximation of unknowns is approximated by the value of unknowns and their first derivative approximations which allow us to obtain a tri-diagonal system of linear equations for the fully discrete problem. Moreover, consistency and stability of the proposed compact scheme are proved. Due to the low regularity of typical initial conditions, the smoothing operator is empl…
We derived similar to Bo et al. (2010) results but in the case when the dynamics of the FX rate is driven by a general Merton jump-diffusion process. The main results of our paper are as follows: 1) formulas for the Esscher transform parameters which ensure that the martingale condition for the discounted foreign exchange rate is a martingale for a general Merton jump--diffusion process are derived; using the values of these parameters we proceeded to a risk-neural measure and provide new formulas for the distribution of jumps, the mean jump size, and the Poisson process intensity with respect…
This paper studies the equal risk pricing (ERP) framework for the valuation of European financial derivatives. This option pricing approach is consistent with global trading strategies by setting the premium as the value such that the residual hedging risk of the long and short positions in the option are equal under optimal hedging. The ERP setup of Marzban et al. (2020) is considered where residual hedging risk is quantified with convex risk measures. The main objective of this paper is to assess through extensive numerical experiments the impact of including options as hedging instruments w…
Differential machine learning (DML) is a recently proposed technique that uses samplewise state derivatives to regularize least square fits to learn conditional expectations of functionals of stochastic processes as functions of state variables. Exploiting the derivative information leads to fewer samples than a vanilla ML approach for the same level of precision. This paper extends the methodology to parametric problems where the processes and functionals also depend on model and contract parameters, respectively. In addition, we propose adaptive parameter sampling to improve relative accurac…
