The paper has 2 main goals: 1. We propose a variant of the CAPM based on coherent risk. 2. In addition to the real-world measure and the risk-neutral measure, we propose the third one: the extreme measure. The introduction of this measure provides a powerful tool for investigating the relation between the first two measures. In particular, this gives us - a new way of measuring reward; - a new approach to the empirical asset pricing.
This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging arguments. Ambiguous volatility implies market incompleteness that rules out perfect hedging. Consequently, hedging arguments determine prices only up to intervals. However, sharper predictions can be obtained by assuming preference maximization and equilibrium. Thus we apply the model …
We provide a critical analysis of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing given in the paper "Arbitrage and approximate arbitrage: the fundamental theorem of asset pricing" by B. Wong and C.C. Heyde (Stochastics, 2010) in the context of incomplete Itô-process models. We show that their approach can only work in the known case of a complete financial market model and give an explicit counterexample.
Given a set-valued stochastic process $(V_t)_{t=0}^T$, we say that the martingale selection problem is solvable if there exists an adapted sequence of selectors $ξ_t\in V_t$, admitting an equivalent martingale measure. The aim of this note is to underline the connection between this problem and the problems of asset pricing in general discrete-time market models with portfolio constraints and transaction costs. For the case of relatively open convex sets $V_t(ω)$ we present effective necessary and sufficient conditions for the solvability of a suitably generalized martingale selection problem.…
We prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a discrete time financial market where trading is subject to proportional transaction cost and the asset price dynamic is modeled by a family of probability measures, possibly non-dominated. Using a backward-forward scheme, we show that when the market consists of a money market account and a single stock, no-arbitrage in a quasi-sure sense is equivalent to the existence of a suitable family of consistent price systems. We also show that when the market consists of multiple dynamically traded assets and satisfies \emph{efficient friction}, …
This paper consists of two parts. In the first part we prove the fundamental theorem of asset pricing under short sales prohibitions in continuous-time financial models where asset prices are driven by nonnegative, locally bounded semimartingales. A key step in this proof is an extension of a well-known result of Ansel and Stricker. In the second part we study the hedging problem in these models and connect it to a properly defined property of "maximality" of contingent claims.
We investigate a statistical-static hedging technique for pricing assets considered as single-step stochastic cash flows. The valuation is based on constructing in a canonical way a European style derivative on a benchmark security such that the physical payoff distribution coincides with the (corrected) physical asset price distribution. It turns out that this pricing technique is economically viable under some natural cases. The fundamental properties of the pricing rule arising in this way are investigated here. This gives rise to a novel way of estimating state price density. Our approach …
We propose an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) model based on $q$-binomial (or Kemp) random walks, with application to default with logistic failure rates. This model allows us to consider time-dependent switching probabilities varying according to a trend parameter on a non-self-similar binomial tree. In particular, it includes tilt and stretch parameters that control increment sizes. Option pricing formulas are written using $q$-binomial coefficients, and we study the convergence of this model to a Black-Scholes type formula in continuous time. A convergence rate of order $O(N^{-1/…
A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a general, flexible, and mathematically tractable asset pricing framework in finite time. The pricing kernel, giving rise to the price system in an incomplete market, is modelled by weighted heat kernels which are driven by multivariate Markov processes and which provide enough degrees of freedom in order to calibrate to relevant data, e.g. to the term structure of bond prices. It is shown how, for a class of models, the prices of bonds, caplets, and swaptions can be computed in closed form. The dynamical equations for the price process…
Improved bounds on the copula of a bivariate random vector are computed when partial information is available, such as the values of the copula on a given subset of $[0,1]^2$, or the value of a functional of the copula, monotone with respect to the concordance order. These results are then used to compute model-free bounds on the prices of two-asset options which make use of extra information about the dependence structure, such as the price of another two-asset option.
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, using methods from the theory of Dirichlet forms. We apply these techniques to hedging procedures in order to compute the sensitivity of SDE trajectories with respect to parameter perturbations. We show that this analysis can justify endogenously the presence of a bid-ask spread on the option prices. We also prove that if the stochastic differential equation admits a closed form representation then the sensitivities have closed form representations. We exa…
We study risk-sharing economies where heterogenous agents trade subject to quadratic transaction costs. The corresponding equilibrium asset prices and trading strategies are characterised by a system of nonlinear, fully-coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations. We show that a unique solution generally exists provided that the agents' preferences are sufficiently similar. In a benchmark specification with linear state dynamics, the illiquidity discounts and liquidity premia observed empirically correspond to a positive relationship between transaction costs and volatility.
Pricing of European basket call option with n-assets and a bond is discussed in this paper, where all prices of n-assets and the bond are driven by Exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. The close-form of European basket option pricing formula is derived. Utilizing with 1-order differential approximate numerical solution of stochastic differential equation (Milstein method), a simulation example of European basket option pricing with 3 assets is also given.
We consider a class of generalized capital asset pricing models in continuous time with a finite number of agents and tradable securities. The securities may not be sufficient to span all sources of uncertainty. If the agents have exponential utility functions and the individual endowments are spanned by the securities, an equilibrium exists and the agents' optimal trading strategies are constant. Affine processes, and the theory of information-based asset pricing are used to model the endogenous asset price dynamics and the terminal payoff. The derived semi-explicit pricing formulae are appli…
We extend the fundamental theorem of asset pricing to a model where the risky stock is subject to proportional transaction costs in the form of bid-ask spreads and the bank account has different interest rates for borrowing and lending. We show that such a model is free of arbitrage if and only if one can embed in it a friction-free model that is itself free of arbitrage, in the sense that there exists an artificial friction-free price for the stock between its bid and ask prices and an artificial interest rate between the borrowing and lending interest rates such that, if one discounts this s…
Let $X^1,\ldots, X^d$ be sigma-martingales on $(Ω,{\cal F}, P)$. We show that every bounded martingale (with respect to the underlying filtration) admits an integral representation w.r.t. $X^1,\ldots, X^d$ if and only if there is no equivalent probability measure (other than $P$) under which $X^1,\ldots,X^d$ are sigma-martingales. From this we deduce the second fundamental theorem of asset pricing- that completeness of a market is equivalent to uniqueness of Equivalent Sigma-Martingale Measure (ESMM).
We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super-Replication Theorem in a model-independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as options written on this risky asset. As a technical condition, we assume the existence of a traded option with a super-linearly growing payoff-function, e.g., a power option. This condition is not needed when sufficiently many vanilla options maturing at the horizon T are traded in the market.
We show that the lack of arbitrage in a model with both fixed and proportional transaction costs is equivalent to the existence of a family of absolutely continuous single-step probability measures, together with an adapted process with values between the bid-ask spreads that satisfies the martingale property with respect to each of the measures. This extends Harrison and Pliska's classical Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing to the case of combined fixed and proportional transaction costs.
We introduce a new model for pricing corporate bonds, which is a modification of the classical model of Merton. In this new model, we drop the liquidity assumption of the firm's asset value process, and assume that there is a liquidly traded asset in the market whose value is correlated with the firm's asset value, and all portfolios can be constructed using solely this asset and the money market account. We formulate the market price of the corporate bond as the product of the price of an optimal replicating portfolio and exp(- kappa x replication error), where kappa is a positive constant. T…
We consider an incomplete multi-asset binomial market model. We prove that for a wide class of contingent claims the extremal multi-step martingale measure is a power of the corresponding single-step extremal martingale measure. This allows for closed form formulas for the bounds of a no-arbitrage contingent claim price interval. We construct a feasible algorithm for computing those boundaries as well as for the corresponding hedging strategies. Our results apply, for example, to European basket call and put options and Asian arithmetic average options.
A new framework for asset pricing based on modelling the information available to market participants is presented. Each asset is characterised by the cash flows it generates. Each cash flow is expressed as a function of one or more independent random variables called market factors or "X-factors". Each X-factor is associated with a "market information process", the values of which become available to market participants. In addition to true information about the X-factor, the information process contains an independent "noise" term modelled here by a Brownian bridge. The information process t…
We consider robust pricing and hedging for options written on multiple assets given market option prices for the individual assets. The resulting problem is called the multi-marginal martingale optimal transport problem. We propose two numerical methods to solve such problems: using discretisation and linear programming applied to the primal side and using penalisation and deep neural networks optimisation applied to the dual side. We prove convergence for our methods and compare their numerical performance. We show how adding further information about call option prices at additional maturiti…
We show that \emph{No unbounded profit with bounded risk} (NUPBR) implies \emph{predictable uniform tightness} (P-UT), a boundedness property in the Emery topology which has been introduced by C. Stricker \cite{S:85}. Combining this insight with well known results from J. Mémin and L. Słominski \cite{MS:91} leads to a short variant of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing initially proved by F. Delbaen and W. Schachermayer \cite{DS:94}. The results are formulated in the general setting of admissible portfolio wealth processes as laid down by Y. Kabanov in \cite{kab:97}.
Let $L$ be a convex cone of real random variables on the probability space $(Ω,\mathcal{A},P_0)$. The existence of a probability $P$ on $\mathcal{A}$ such that $$ P \sim P_0,\quad E_P \abs{X}< \infty\, \text{ and } \, E_P(X) \leq 0\, \text{ for all }X \in L $$ is investigated. Two results are provided. In the first, $P$ is a finitely additive probability, while $P$ is $σ$-additive in the second. If $L$ is a linear space then $-X\in L$ whenever $X\in L$, so that $E_P(X)\leq 0$ turns into $E_P(X)=0$. Hence, the results apply to various significant frameworks, including equivalent martingale meas…
We consider the problem of pricing path-dependent options on a basket of underlying assets using simulations. As an example we develop our studies using Asian options. Asian options are derivative contracts in which the underlying variable is the average price of given assets sampled over a period of time. Due to this structure, Asian options display a lower volatility and are therefore cheaper than their standard European counterparts. This paper is a survey of some recent enhancements to improve efficiency when pricing Asian options by Monte Carlo simulation in the Black-Scholes model. We an…
We develop a robust framework for pricing and hedging of derivative securities in discrete-time financial markets. We consider markets with both dynamically and statically traded assets and make minimal measurability assumptions. We obtain an abstract (pointwise) Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Pricing--Hedging Duality. Our results are general and in particular include so-called model independent results of Acciao et al. (2016), Burzoni et al. (2016) as well as seminal results of Dalang et al. (1990) in a classical probabilistic approach. Our analysis is scenario--based: a model speci…
We present a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) for continuous time large financial markets with two filtrations in an $L^p$-setting for $ 1 \leq p < \infty$. This extends the results of Yuri Kabanov and Christophe Stricker \cite{KS:06} to continuous time and to a large financial market setting, however, still preserving the simplicity of the discrete time setting. On the other hand it generalizes Stricker's $L^p$-version of FTAP \cite{S:90} towards a setting with two filtrations. We do neither assume that price processes are semi-martigales, (and it does not follow due…
