Iteration of randomly chosen quadratic maps defines a Markov process: X_{n+1}=ε_{n+1}X_n(1-X_n), where ε_n are i.i.d. with values in the parameter space [0,4] of quadratic maps F_θ(x)=θx(1-x). Its study is of significance as an important Markov model, with applications to problems of optimization under uncertainty arising in economics. In this article a broad criterion is established for positive Harris recurrence of X_n.
Let $M$ be an arbitrary $n$ by $n$ matrix. We study the condition number a random perturbation $M+N_n$ of $M$, where $N_n$ is a random matrix. It is shown that, under very general conditions on $M$ and $M_n$, the condition number of $M+N_n$ is polynomial in $n$ with very high probability. The main novelty here is that we allow $N_n$ to have discrete distribution.
We derive a sufficient condition for stability in probability of an equilibrium of a randomly perturbed map in ${\mathbb R}^d$. This condition can be used to stabilize weakly unstable equilibria by random forcing. Analytical results on stabilization are illustrated with numerical examples of randomly perturbed linear and nonlinear maps in one- and two-dimensional spaces.
We consider the average number of limit cycles that bifurcate from a randomly perturbed linear center where the perturbation consists of random (bivariate) polynomials with independent coefficients. This problem reduces, by way of classical perturbation theory of the Poincaré first return map, to a problem on the real zeros of a random \emph{univariate} polynomial $\displaystyle f_n(x) = \sum_{m=0}^n c_m ξ_m x^m$ with independent coefficients $ξ_m$ having mean zero, variance 1 and $c_m \sim m^{-1/2}$. This polynomial belongs to the class of {\it generalized Kac polynomials} at the critical reg…
Necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence in distribution of first-rare-event times and convergence in Skorokhod J-topology of first-rare-event-time processes for perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase space are obtained.
We are interested in studying the sensitivity of diffusion processes or their approximations by Markov Chains with respect to a perturbation of the coefficients.
New algorithms for computing of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes are presented. The algorithms are based on special techniques of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with asymptotically coupled and uncoupled finite phase spaces.
We consider incompressible generalized Newtonian fluids in two space dimensions perturbed by an additive Gaussian noise. The velocity field of such a fluid obeys a stochastic partial differential equation with fully nonlinear drift due to the dependence of viscosity on the shear rate. In particular, we assume that the extra stress tensor is of power law type, i.\,e. a polynomial of degree $p-1$, $p \in (1,2)$, i.\,e. the shear thinning case. We prove that the associated Kolmogorov operator $K$ admits at least one infinitesimally invariant measure $μ$ satisfying certain exponential moment estim…
Convergence properties of random ergodic averages have been extensively studied in the literature. In these notes, we exploit a uniform estimate by Cohen \& Cuny who showed convergence of a series along randomly perturbed times for functions in $L^2$ with $\int \max(1,\log (1+|t|)) dμ_f<\infty$. We prove universal pointwise convergence of a class of random averages along randomly perturbed times for $L^2$ functions with $\int \max(1,\log\log(1+|t|)) dμ_f<\infty$. For averages with additional smoothing properties, we obtain a universal variational inequality as well as universal pointwise conve…
The paper presents new asymptotic recurrent algorithms of phase space reduction for regularly and singularly perturbed semi-Markov processes. These algorithms give effective conditions of weak convergence for distributions and convergence of expectations for hitting times as well as recurrent formulas for computing the corresponding normalisation functions, Laplace transforms for limiting distributions and limits for expectations.
In this paper, we study mixed power-exponential moment functionals of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes in discrete time. Conditions under which the moment functionals of interest can be expanded in asymptotic power series with respect to the perturbation parameter are given. We show how the coefficients in these expansions can be computed from explicit recursive formulas. In particular, the results of the present paper have applications for studies of quasi-stationary distributions.
Asymptotic expansions with explicit upper bounds for remainders are given for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces. The corresponding algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with an arbitrary asymptotic communicative structure of phase spaces.
In this paper, we study quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes in discrete time. This type of distributions is of interest for the analysis of stochastic systems which have finite lifetimes, but are expected to persist for a long time. We obtain asymptotic power series expansions for quasi-stationary distributions and it is shown how the coefficients in these expansions can be computed from a recursive algorithm. As an illustration of this algorithm, we present a numerical example for a discrete time Markov chain.
We study irreducible time-homogenous Markov chains with finite state space in discrete time. We obtain results on the sensitivity of the stationary distribution and other statistical quantities with respect to perturbations of the transition matrix. We define a new closeness relation between transition matrices, and use graph-theoretic techniques, in contrast with the matrix analysis techniques previously used.
New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential phase space reduction, which can be applied to processes with an arbitrary asymptotic communicative structure of phase spaces. Asymptotic expansions are given in two forms, without and with explicit bounds for remainders.
We study a limit behavior of a sequence of Markov processes (or Markov chains) such that their distributions outside of any neighborhood of a "singular" point attract to some probability law. In any neighborhood of this point the behavior may be irregular. As an example of the general result we consider a symmetric random walk with the unit jump that is perturbed in a neighborhood of 0. The invariance principle is obtained under standard scaling of time and space. The limit process turns out to be a skew Brownian motion.
The paper is devoted to studies of perturbed Markov chains commonly used for description of information networks. In such models, the matrix of transition probabilities for the corresponding Markov chain is usually regularised by adding a special damping matrix multiplied by a small damping (perturbation) parameter $\varepsilon$. We give effective upper bounds for the rate of approximation for stationary distributions of unperturbed Markov chains by stationary distributions of perturbed Markov chains with regularised matrices of transition probabilities, asymptotic expansions for approximating…
We consider a discrete time semi-Markov process where the characteristics defining the process depend on a small perturbation parameter. It is assumed that the state space consists of one finite communicating class of states and, in addition, one absorbing state. Our main object of interest is the asymptotic behaviour of the joint probabilities of the position of the semi-Markov process and the event of non-absorption as time tends to infinity and the perturbation parameter tends to zero. The main result gives exponential expansions of these probabilities together with an recursive algorithm f…
We consider a multidimensional time-homogeneous dynamical system and add a randomly perturbed time-dependent deterministic signal to some of its components, giving rise to a high-dimensional system of stochastic differential equations, which is driven by possibly very low-dimensional noise. Equations of this type commonly occur in biology when modelling neurons or in statistical mechanics for certain Hamiltonian systems. We provide verifiable conditions on the original deterministic dynamical system under which the solution to the respective stochastic system features a point in the interior o…
In this paper, we study the effect of small Brownian noise on a switching dynamical system which models a first-order DC/DC buck converter. The state vector of this system comprises a continuous component whose dynamics switch, based on the ON/OFF configuration of the circuit, between two ordinary differential equations (ODE), and a discrete component which keeps track of the ON/OFF configurations. Assuming that the parameters and initial conditions of the unperturbed system have been tuned to yield a stable periodic orbit, we study the stochastic dynamics of this system when the forcing input…
We consider a simple but important class of metastable discrete time Markov chains, which we call perturbed Markov chains. Basically, we assume that the transition matrices depend on a parameter $\varepsilon$, and converge as $\varepsilon$. We further assume that the chain is irreducible for $\varepsilon$ but may have several essential communicating classes when $\varepsilon$. This leads to metastable behavior, possibly on multiple time scales. For each of the relevant time scales, we derive two effective chains. The first one describes the (possibly irreversible) metastable dynamics, while th…
Stemmed from the derivation of the optimal control to a stochastic linear-quadratic control problem with Markov jumps, we study one kind of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) that the generator f is affected by a Markovian switching. Then, the case that the Markov chain is involved in a large state space is considered. Following the classical approach, a hierarchical approach is adopted to reduce the complexity and a singularly perturbed Markov chain is involved. We will study the asymptotic property of BSDE with the singularly perturbed Markov chain. At last, as an application…
In this paper we study an asymptotic expansion for the distribution of a random motion of a particle driven by a Markov process in diffusion approximation. We show that the singularly perturbed equation of a Markovian random motion can be reduced to the regularly perturbed equation for the distribution of the random motion.
This work focuses on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains with two time scales. Our motivations stem from applications in reliability and dependability, queueing networks, financial engineering and manufacturing systems, where two-time-scale scenarios naturally arise. One of the important questions is: As the rate of fluctuation of the Markov chain goes to infinity, if the limit distributions of suitably centered and scaled sequences of occupation measures exist, what can be said about the convergence rate? By combining singular perturbation techniques and probabilistic methods, this paper address…
The asymptotic behavior of the integrated density of states for a randomly perturbed lattice at the infimum of the spectrum is investigated. The leading term is determined when the decay of the single site potential is slow. The leading term depends only on the classical effect from the scalar potential. To the contrary, the quantum effect appears when the decay of the single site potential is fast. The corresponding leading term is estimated and the leading order is determined. In the multidimensional cases, the leading order varies in different ways from the known results in the Poisson case…
A system of autonomous differential equations with a stable limit cycle and perturbed by small white noise is analyzed in this work. In the vicinity of the limit cycle of the unperturbed deterministic system, we define, construct, and analyze the Poincare map of the randomly perturbed periodic motion. We show that the time of the first exit from a small neighborhood of the fixed point of the map, which corresponds to the unperturbed periodic orbit, is well approximated by the geometric distribution. The parameter of the geometric distribution tends zero together with the noise intensity. There…
We study the stochastic diffusive limit of a kinetic radiative transfer equation, which is non-linear, involving a small parameter and perturbed by a smooth random term. Under an appropriate scaling for the small parameter, using a generalization of the perturbed test-functions method, we show the convergence in law to a stochastic non-linear fluid limit.
This paper is concerned with backward problem for nonlinear space fractional diffusion with additive noise on the right-hand side and the final value. To regularize the instable solution, we develop some new regularized method for solving the problem. In the case of constant coefficients, we use the truncation methods. In the case of perturbed time dependent coefficients, we apply a new quasi-reversibility method. We also show the convergence rate between the regularized solution and the sought solution under some a priori assumption on the sought solution.
Asymptotic expansions for stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed birth-death-type semi-Markov models are presented. Applications to models of population growth, epidemic spread and population genetics are discussed.
Is studied asymptotic expansion for solution of singularly perturbed equation for Markov random evolution in Rd. The views of regular and singular parts of solution are found.
The ordinary contact process is used to model the spread of a disease in a population. In this model, each infected individual waits an exponentially distributed time with parameter 1 before becoming healthy. In this paper, we introduce and study the contact process in a randomly evolving environment. Here we associate to every individual an independent two-state, $\{0,1\},$ background process. Given $δ_0<δ_1,$ if the background process is in state $0,$ the individual (if infected) becomes healthy at rate $δ_0,$ while if the background process is in state $1,$ it becomes healthy at rate $δ_1.$…
The zero-range process is a stochastic interacting particle system that exhibits a condensation transition under certain conditions on the dynamics. It has recently been found that a small perturbation of a generic class of jump rates leads to a drastic change of the phase diagram and prevents condensation in an extended parameter range. We complement this study with rigorous results on a finite critical density and quenched free energy in the thermodynamic limit, as well as quantitative heuristic results for small and large noise which are supported by detailed simulation data. While our new …
We analyze quasi-stationary distributions $\{μ^{\varepsilon}\}_{\varepsilon>0}$ of a family of Markov chains $\{X^{\varepsilon}\}_{\varepsilon>0}$ that are random perturbations of a bounded, continuous map $F:M\to M$, where $M$ is a closed subset of $\mathbb{R}^k$. Consistent with many models in biology, these Markov chains have a closed absorbing set $M_0\subset M$ such that $F(M_0)=M_0$ and $F(M\setminus M_0)=M\setminus M_0$. Under some large deviations assumptions on the random perturbations, we show that, if there exists a positive attractor for $F$ (i.e., an attractor for $F$ in $M\setmin…
Let $ξ_1$, $ξ_2,\ldots$ be i.i.d. random variables of zero mean and finite variance and $η_1$, $η_2,\ldots$ positive i.i.d. random variables whose distribution belongs to the domain of attraction of an $α$-stable distribution, $α\in (0,1)$. The two collections are assumed independent. We consider a Markov chain with jumps of two types. If the present position of the Markov chain is positive, then the jump $ξ_k$ occurs; if the present position of the Markov chain is nonpositive, then its next position is $η_j$. We prove a functional limit theorem for this Markov chain under Donsker's scaling. T…
We consider the Gibbs-measures of continuous-valued height configurations on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice in the presence a weakly disordered potential. The potential is composed of Gaussians having random location and random depth; it becomes periodic under shift of the interface perpendicular to the base-plane for zero disorder. We prove that there exist localized interfaces with probability one in dimensions $d\geq 3+1$, in a `low-temperature' regime. The proof extends the method of continuous-to-discrete single- site coarse graining that was previously applied by the author for a do…
We consider long-time behavior of dynamical systems perturbed by a small noise. Under certain conditions, a slow component of such a motion, which is most important for long- time evolution, can be described as a motion on the cone of invariant measures of the non- perturbed system. The case of a finite number of extreme points of the cone is considered in this paper. As is known, in the generic case, the long-time evolution can be described by a hierarchy of cycles defined by the action functional for corresponding stochastic processes. This, in particular, allows to study metastable distribu…
Given an infinitesimal perturbation of a discrete-time finite Markov chain, we seek the states that are stable despite the perturbation, \textit{i.e.} the states whose weights in the stationary distributions can be bounded away from $0$ as the noise fades away. Chemists, economists, and computer scientists have been studying irreducible perturbations built with exponential maps. Under these assumptions, Young proved the existence of and computed the stable states in cubic time. We fully drop these assumptions, generalize Young's technique, and show that stability is decidable as long as $f\in …
The effect of perturbations of parameters for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains is studied. We provide the maximal distance between the distributions of original and perturbed chain and maximal degree of imprecision, given the imprecision of the initial distribution. The bounds on the errors and degrees of imprecision are found for the distributions at finite time steps, and for the stationary distributions as well.
The paper is devoted to studying the image of probability measures on a Hilbert space under finite-dimensional analytic maps. We establish sufficient conditions under which the image of a measure has a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure and continuously depends on the map. The results obtained are applied to the 2D Navier--Stokes equations perturbed by various random forces of low dimension.
We study continuous time Markov processes on graphs. The notion of frequency is introduced, which serves well as a scaling factor between any Markov time of a continuous time Markov process and that of its jump chain. As an application, we study ``multi-person simple random walks'' on a graph G with n vertices. There are n persons distributed randomly at the vertices of G. In each step of this discrete time Markov process, we randomly pick up a person and move it to a random adjacent vertex. We give estimate on the expected number of steps for these $n$ persons to meet all together at a specif…
We present an investigation of stochastic evolution in which a family of evolution equations in $L^1$ are driven by continuous-time Markov processes. These are examples of so-called piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) on the space of integrable functions. We derive equations for the first moment and correlations (of any order) of such processes. We also introduce the mean of the process at large time and describe its behaviour. The results are illustrated by some simple, yet generic, biological examples characterized by different one-parameter types of bifurcations.
We consider some certain nonlinear perturbations of the stochastic linear-quadratic optimization problems and study the connections between their solutions and the corresponding Markovian backward stochastic diferential equations (BSDEs). Using the methods of stochastic control, nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) and BSDEs, we identify conditions for the solvability of the problem and obtain some regularity properties of the solutions.
Filtering and Statistical Properties of Unimodal Maps Perturbed by Heteroscedastic Noises
Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá di Bologna（博洛尼亚大学数学系）；Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa（比萨高等师范学院）；King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；Aix Marseille Université, Université de Toulon, CNRS, CPT（艾克斯-马赛大学、土伦大学、法国国家科学研究中心、CPT）
The Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCwM) algorithm, interpreted as a perturbed Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, provides an approach for approximate sampling when the target distribution is intractable. Assuming the unperturbed Markov chain is geometrically ergodic, we show explicit estimates of the difference between the n-th step distributions of the perturbed MCwM and the unperturbed MH chains. These bounds are based on novel perturbation results for Markov chains which are of interest beyond the MCwM setting. To apply the bounds, we need to control the difference between the transition …
