We consider long-time behavior of dynamical systems perturbed by a small noise. Under certain conditions, a slow component of such a motion, which is most important for long- time evolution, can be described as a motion on the cone of invariant measures of the non- perturbed system. The case of a finite number of extreme points of the cone is considered in this paper. As is known, in the generic case, the long-time evolution can be described by a hierarchy of cycles defined by the action functional for corresponding stochastic processes. This, in particular, allows to study metastable distributions and such effects as stochastic resonance. If the system has some symmetry in the logarithmic asymptotics of transition probabilities (rough symmetry),the hierarchy of cycles should be replaced by a hierarchy of Markov chains and their invariant measures.
We study the convergence in rough path topology of a certain class of discrete processes, the hidden Markov walks, to a Brownian motion with an area anomaly. This area anomaly, which is a new object, keeps track of the time-correlation of the discrete models and brings into light the question of embeddings of discrete processes into continuous time. We also identify an underlying combinatorial structure in the hidden Markov walks, which turns out to be a generalization of the occupation time from the classical ergodic theorem in the spirit of rough paths.
We consider additive functionals of stationary Markov processes and show that under Kipnis-Varadhan type conditions they converge in rough path topology to a Stratonovich Brownian motion, with a correction to the Levy area that can be described in terms of the asymmetry (non-reversibility) of the underlying Markov process. We apply this abstract result to three model problems: First we study random walks with random conductances under the annealed law. If we consider the Ito rough path, then we see a correction to the iterated integrals even though the underlying Markov process is reversible. …
We discuss problems posed by the quantitative study of time inhomogeneous Markov chains. The two main notions for our purpose are merging and stability. Merging (also called weak ergodicity) occurs when the chain asymptotically forgets where it started. It is a loss of memory property. Stability relates to the question of whether or not, despite temporary variations, there is a rough shape describing the long time behavior of the chain. For instance, we will discuss an example where the long time behavior is roughly described by a binomial, with temporal variations.
We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the variance process satisfies a stochastic Volterra equation with the fractional kernel, as in the rough Bergomi and the rough Heston model. In particular, the variance process is therefore not a Markov process or semimartingale, and has quite low Hölder-regularity. In practice, simulating such rough processes thus often results in high computational cost. To remedy this, we study approximations of stochastic Volterra equations using an $N$-dimensional diffusion process defined as solution to a system of ordinary stochastic differential equ…
We discuss stochastic calculus for large classes of Gaussian processes, based on rough path analysis. Our key condition is a covariance measure structure combined with a classical criterion due to Jain and Monrad [Ann. Probab. 11 (1983) 46-57]. This condition is verified in many examples, even in absence of explicit expressions for the covariance or Volterra kernels. Of special interest are random Fourier series, with covariance given as Fourier series itself, and we formulate conditions directly in terms of the Fourier coefficients. We also establish convergence and rates of convergence in ro…
We are interested in the asymptotic behavior of Markov chains on the set of positive integers for which, loosely speaking, large jumps are rare and occur at a rate that behaves like a negative power of the current state, and such that small positive and negative steps of the chain roughly compensate each other. If $X_{n}$ is such a Markov chain started at $n$, we establish a limit theorem for $\frac{1}{n}X_{n}$ appropriately scaled in time, where the scaling limit is given by a nonnegative self-similar Markov process. We also study the asymptotic behavior of the time needed by $X_{n}$ to reach…
We derive an invariance principle for the lift to the rough path topology of stochastic processes with delayed regenerative increments under an optimal moment condition. An interesting feature of the result is the emergence of area anomaly, a correction term in the second level of the limiting rough path which is identified as the average stochastic area on a regeneration interval. A few applications include random walks in random environment and additive functionals of recurrent Markov chains. The result is formulated in the p-variation settings, where a rough Donsker Theorem is available und…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the origin. Another classic stylistic feature often assumed for the volatility is that it is mean reverting. In this paper it is shown that the price impact of a rapidly mean reverting rough volatility model coincides with that associated with fast mean reverting Markov stochastic volatility models. This reconciles the empirical observation of rough volatility paths w…
A careful look at rough path topology applied to Brownian motion reveals new possible properties of the well-known Lévy area, in particular the presence of an intrinsic drift of this area. Using renormalization limit of Markov chains on periodic graphs, we present a construction of such a non-trivial drift and give an explicit formula for it. Several examples for which explicit computations are made are included.
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and analyze how the induced uncertainty may be propagated through time as we collect new observations, and used to simultaneously provide robust estimates of the hidden signal and to learn the unknown parameters, via techniques based on pathwise filtering and new results on the optimal control of rough differential equations.
We provide new upper bounds for mixing times of general finite Markov chains. We use these bounds to show that the total variation mixing time is robust under rough isometry for bounded degree graphs that are roughly isometric to trees.
Backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) in the sense of Pardoux-Peng [Backward stochastic differential equations and quasilinear parabolic partial differential equations, Lecture Notes in Control and Inform. Sci., 176, 200--217, 1992] provide a non-Markovian extension to certain classes of non-linear partial differential equations; the non-linearity is expressed in the so-called driver of the BSDE. Our aim is to deal with drivers which have very little regularity in time. To this end we establish continuity of BSDE solutions with respect to rough path metrics in the sense of Lyons […
Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities are a fundamental class of inequalities that play an important role in information theory. They play a key role in establishing concentration inequalities and in obtaining quantitative estimates on the convergence to equilibrium of Markov processes. More recently, deep links have been established between logarithmic Sobolev inequalities and strong data processing inequalities. In this paper we study logarithmic Sobolev inequalities from a computational point of view. We describe a hierarchy of semidefinite programming relaxations which give certified lower boun…
Disordered pinning models deal with the (de)localization tran- sition of a polymer in interaction with a heterogeneous interface. In this paper, we focus on two models where the inhomogeneities at the interface are not independent but given by an irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space. In the first model, using Markov renewal tools, we give an expression for the annealed critical curve in terms of a Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue, and provide examples where exact computations are possible. In the second model, the transition matrix vary with the size of the system so that, roughly speak…
Stochastic Volterra equations: failure of the time-homogeneous Markov property
School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin City University（都柏林城市大学数学科学学院）；Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, TU Wien（维也纳工业大学统计与经济数学方法研究所）
A new paradigm recently emerged in financial modelling: rough (stochastic) volatility, first observed by Gatheral et al. in high-frequency data, subsequently derived within market microstructure models, also turned out to capture parsimoniously key stylized facts of the entire implied volatility surface, including extreme skews that were thought to be outside the scope of stochastic volatility. On the mathematical side, Markovianity and, partially, semi-martingality are lost. In this paper we show that Hairer's regularity structures, a major extension of rough path theory, which caused a revol…
In this article, we show how the theory of rough paths can be used to provide a notion of solution to a class of nonlinear stochastic PDEs of Burgers type that exhibit too high spatial roughness for classical analytical methods to apply. In fact, the class of SPDEs that we consider is genuinely ill-posed in the sense that different approximations to the nonlinearity may converge to different limits. Using rough paths theory, a pathwise notion of solution to these SPDEs is formulated, and we show that this yields a well-posed problem, which is stable under a large class of perturbations, includ…
Hierarchical Gaussian Random Fields for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and The Karhunen-Loève Decomposition
In quantitative finance, modeling the volatility structure of underlying assets is vital to pricing options. Rough stochastic volatility models, such as the rough Bergomi model [Bayer, Friz, Gatheral, Quantitative Finance 16(6), 887-904, 2016], seek to fit observed market data based on the observation that the log-realized variance behaves like a fractional Brownian motion with small Hurst parameter, $H < 1/2$, over reasonable timescales. Both time series of asset prices and option-derived price data indicate that $H$ often takes values close to $0.1$ or less, i.e., rougher than Brownian motio…
We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Edgeworth type expansions of third order for transition densities are proved. This is done for time horizons that converge to 0. For this purpose we represent the transition density as a functional of densities of sums of i.i.d. variables. This will be done by application of the parametrix method. Then we apply Edgeworth expansions to the densities. The resulting series gives our Edgeworth-type expansion for the transition density of Markov chains. The research is motivated by applications to high frequ…
We study a class of dissipative PDE's perturbed by an unbounded kick force. Under some natural assumptions, the restrictions of solutions to integer times form a homogeneous Markov process. Assuming that the noise is rough with respect to the space variables and has a non-degenerate law, we prove that the system in question satisfies a large deviation principle in tau-topology. Under some additional hypotheses, we establish a Gallavotti-Cohen type symmetry for the rate function of an entropy production functional and the strict positivity and finiteness of the mean entropy production in the st…
