The problem of reconstructing the drift of a diffusion in $\erre^d$, $d\geq 2$, from the transition probability density observed outside a domain is considered. The solution of this problem also solves a new inverse problem for a class of parabolic partial differential equations. This work considerably extends \cite{jsp} in terms of generality, both concerning assumptions on the drift coefficient, and allowing for non-constant diffusion coefficient. Sufficient conditions for solvability of this type of inverse problem for $d=1$ are also given.
We propose an approach to approximate the boundary crossing probabilities for general one-dimensional diffusion processes, and derive the convergence rate for this approximation scheme. There results are based on the explicit expression of the Laplace transforms of the first passage densities for diffusions with piecewise linear drifts. The proposed method is applied to a reliability problem where the standard degradation model based on Wiener process is extended to diffusion processes with piecewise linear drifts.
We consider the problem of determining escape probabilities from an interval of a general compound renewal process with drift. This problem is reduced to the solution of a certain integral equation. In an actuarial situation where only negative jumps arise we give a general solution for escape and survival probabilities under Erlang$(n)$ and hypo-exponential arrivals. These ideas are generalized to the class of arrival distributions having rational Laplace transforms. In a general situation with two-sided jumps we also identify important families of solvable cases. A parallelism with the "scal…
Let $B^{H}$ be a $d$-dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index $H\in(0,1)$, $f:[0,1]\longrightarrow\mathbb{R}^{d}$ a Borel function, and $E\subset[0,1]$, $F\subset\mathbb{R}^{d}$ are given Borel sets. The focus of this paper is on hitting probabilities of the fractional Brownian motion $B^{H}$ with the deterministic drift $f$. It aims to highlight the role of the regularity properties of the drift $f$ as well as that of the dimension of $E$ in determining the upper and lower bounds of $\mathbb{P}\{(B^H+f)(E)\cap F\neq \emptyset \}$ for $F$ a subset of $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ and also fo…
For a one dimensional diffusion process $X=\{X(t) ; 0\leq t \leq T \}$, we suppose that $X(t)$ is hidden if it is below some fixed and known threshold $τ$, but otherwise it is visible. This means a partially hidden diffusion process. The problem treated in this paper is to estimate finite dimensional parameter in both drift and diffusion coefficients under a partially hidden diffusion process obtained by a discrete sampling scheme. It is assumed that the sampling occurs at regularly spaced time intervals of length $h_n$ such that $n h_n=T$. The asymptotic is when $h_n\to0$, $T\to\infty$ and $n…
We consider a stochastic flow $ϕ_t(x,ω)$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ with initial point $ϕ_0(x,ω)=x$, driven by a single $n$-dimensional Brownian motion, and with an outward radial drift of magnitude $\frac{ F(\|ϕ_t(x)\|)}{\|ϕ_t(x)\|}$, with $F$ nonnegative, bounded and Lipschitz. We consider initial points $x$ lying in a set of positive distance from the origin. We show that there exist constants $C^*,c^*>0$ not depending on $n$, such that if $F>C^*n$ then the image of the initial set under the flow has probability 0 of hitting the origin. If $0\leq F \leq c^*n^{3/4}$, and if the initial set has nonemp…
Spatially homogeneous random walks in $(\mathbb{Z}_{+})^{2}$ with non-zero jump probabilities at distance at most 1, with non-zero drift in the interior of the quadrant and absorbed when reaching the axes are studied. Absorption probabilities generating functions are obtained and the asymptotic of absorption probabilities along the axes is made explicit. The asymptotic of the Green functions is computed along all different infinite paths of states, in particular along those approaching the axes.
We investigate the upper tail probabilities of the all-time maximum of a stable Lévy process with a power negative drift. The asymptotic behaviour is shown to be exponential in the spectrally negative case and polynomial otherwise, with explicit exponents and constants. Analogous results are obtained, at a less precise level, for the fractionally integrated stable Lévy process. We also study the lower tail probabilities of the integrated stable Lévy process in the presence of a power positive drift.
In this note we find a formula for the supremum distribution of spectrally positive or negative Lévy processes with a broken linear drift. This gives formulas for ruin probabilities in the case when two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions. As an example we consider gamma Lévy process, $α$-stable Lévy process and Brownian motion. Moreover we obtain identities for Laplace transform of the distribution for the supremum of Lévy processes with randomly broken drift and on random intervals.
By the Cameron--Martin theorem, if a function $f$ is in the Dirichlet space $D$, then $B+f$ has the same a.s. properties as standard Brownian motion, $B$. In this paper we examine properties of $B+f$ when $f \notin D$. We start by establishing a general 0-1 law, which in particular implies that for any fixed $f$, the Hausdorff dimension of the image and the graph of $B+f$ are constants a.s. (This 0-1 law applies to any Lévy process.) Then we show that if the function $f$ is Hölder$(1/2)$, then $B+f$ is intersection equivalent to $B$. Moreover, $B+f$ has double points a.s. in dimensions $d\le 3…
Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in three dimensions, whose two spatial coordinates are standard Brownian motions with zero drift, and the remaining (unknown) spatial coordinate is a standard Brownian motion with a non-zero drift. Given that the position of the Brownian particle is being observed in real time, the problem is to detect as soon as possible and with minimal probabilities of the wrong terminal decisions, which spatial coordinate has the non-zero drift. We solve this problem in the Bayesian formulation, under any prior probabilities of the non-zero drift being in any of t…
A one dimensional diffusion process $X=\{X_t, 0\leq t \leq T\}$, with drift $b(x)$ and diffusion coefficient $σ(θ, x)=\sqrtθ σ(x)$ known up to $θ>0$, is supposed to switch volatility regime at some point $t^*\in (0,T)$. On the basis of discrete time observations from $X$, the problem is the one of estimating the instant of change in the volatility structure $t^*$ as well as the two values of $θ$, say $θ_1$ and $θ_2$, before and after the change point. It is assumed that the sampling occurs at regularly spaced times intervals of length $Δ_n$ with $nΔ_n=T$. To work out our statistical problem we…
We construct a planar diffusion process whose infinitesimal generator depends only on the order of the components of the process. Speaking informally and a bit imprecisely for the moment, imagine you run two Brownian-like particles on the real line. At any given time, you assign positive drift g and diffusion σ to the laggard; and you assign negative drift -h and diffusion ρ to the leader. We compute the transition probabilities of this process, discuss its realization in terms of appropriate systems of stochastic differential equations, study its dynamics under a time reversal, and note that …
We consider diffusion processes in Hilbert spaces with constant non-degenerate diffusion operators and show that, under broad assumptions on the drift, the transition probabilities of the process are positive on ellipsoids associated with the diffusion operator. This is an infinite-dimensional analogue of positivity of densities of transition probabilities. Our results apply to diffusions corresponding to stochastic partial differential equations.
Conditional splitting probabilities for hidden-state inference in drift-diffusive processes
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Laboratoire de Physique de l’Ecole Normale Supérieure (LPENS)（巴黎高等师范学院物理实验室）；Max Planck Insitute for Dynamics and Self-Organization（马克斯·普朗克动力学与自组织研究所）
We consider a controlled second order differential equation which is partially observed with an additional fractional noise. we study the asymptotic (for large observation time) design problem of the input and give an efficient estimator of the unknown signal drift parameter. When the input depends on the unknow parameter, we will try the one-step estimation procedure using the Newton-Raphson method.
We study a Sparre Andersen model in which the business activity of the company is described by a compound renewal process with drift assuming that the capital reserves are invested in a risky asset. The price of the latter is assumed to evolve according to a geometric Lévy process. We prove that the asymptotic behavior of the ruin probability depends to a large extent only on the properties of the price process.
We prove that diffusion equations with a space-time stationary and ergodic, divergence-free drift homogenize in law to a deterministic stochastic partial differential equation with Stratonovich transport noise. In the absence of spatial ergodicity, the drift is only partially absorbed into the skew-symmetric part of the flux through the use of an appropriately defined stream matrix. This leaves a time-dependent, spatially-homogenous transport which, for mildly decorrelating fields, converges to a Brownian noise with deterministic covariance in the homogenization limit. The results apply to uni…
We propose an approach to compute the boundary crossing probabilities for a class of diffusion processes which can be expressed as piecewise monotone (not necessarily one-to-one) functionals of a standard Brownian motion. This class includes many interesting processes in real applications, e.g., Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, growth processes and geometric Brownian motion with time dependent drift. This method applies to both one-sided and two-sided general nonlinear boundaries, which may be discontinuous. Using this approach explicit formulas for boundary crossing probabilities for certain nonlinear bou…
We study the frog model on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with drift in dimension $d \geq 2$ and establish the existence of transient and recurrent regimes depending on the transition probabilities. We focus on a model in which the particles perform nearest neighbour random walks which are balanced in all but one direction. This gives a model with two parameters. We present conditions on the parameters for recurrence and transience, revealing interesting differences between dimension $d=2$ and dimension $d \geq 3$. Our proofs make use of (refined) couplings with branching random walks for the transience, and …
We provide a detailed description of the structure of the transition probabilities and of the hitting distributions of boundary components of a manifold with corners for a degenerate strong Markov process arising in population genetics. The Markov processes that we study are a generalization of the classical Wright-Fisher process. The main ingredients in our proofs are based on the analysis of the regularity properties of solutions to a forward Kolmogorov equation defined on a compact manifold with corners, which is degenerate in the sense that it is not strictly elliptic and the coefficients …
We study the asymptotic behavior of ruin probabilities, as the initial reserve goes to infinity, for a reserve process model where claims arrive according to a renewal process, while between the claim times the process has the dynamics of geometric Brownian motion-type Itô processes with time-dependent random coefficients. These coefficients are ``reset" after each claim time, switching to new values independent of the past history of the process. We use the implicit renewal theory to obtain power-function bounds for the eventual ruin probability. In the special case when the random drift and …
We study boundary non-crossing probabilities $$ P_{f,u} := \mathrm P\big(\forall t\in \mathbb T\ X_t + f(t)\le u(t)\big) $$ for continuous centered Gaussian process $X$ indexed by some arbitrary compact separable metric space $\mathbb T$. We obtain both upper and lower bounds for $P_{f,u}$. The bounds are matching in the sense that they lead to precise logarithmic asymptotics for the large-drift case $P_{y f,u}$, $y \to+\infty$, which are two-term approximations (up to $o(y)$). The asymptotics are formulated in terms of the solution $\tilde f$ to the constrained optimization problem $$ \|h\|_{…
In this paper we solve a selection problem for multidimensional SDE $d X^\varepsilon(t)=a(X^\varepsilon(t)) d t+\varepsilon σ(X^\varepsilon(t))\, d W(t)$, where the drift and diffusion are locally Lipschitz continuous outside of a fixed hyperplane $H$. It is assumed that $X^\varepsilon(0)=x^0\in H$, the drift $a(x)$ has a Hoelder asymptotics as $x$ approaches $H$, and the limit ODE $d X(t)=a(X(t))\, d t$ does not have a unique solution. We show that if the drift pushes the solution away of $H$, then the limit process with certain probabilities selects some extreme solutions to the limit ODE. I…
Physical notions of stochastic resonance for potential diffusions in periodically changing double-well potentials such as the spectral power amplification have proved to be defective. They are not robust for the passage to their effective dynamics: continuous-time finite-state Markov chains describing the rough features of transitions between different domains of attraction of metastable points. In the framework of one-dimensional diffusions moving in periodically changing double-well potentials we design a new notion of stochastic resonance which refines Freidlin's concept of quasi-periodic m…
