In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional distribution process ${\mathbb P}\{X_n|Y_n,...,Y_1\}$, referred to hereafter as the {\it optimal filter}. Following a standard Bayesian technique, we treat the parameters as a non-dynamic component of the Markov chain. As a result, the new Markov chain is not going to be mixing, even if the original one is. We show that, under certain conditions, the optimal filters are still going to be asymptotically stable with respect to the initial conditions. Thus, by computing the optimal filter of the new system, we can estimate the signal adaptively.
Stability problem of the Wonham filter with respect to initial conditions is addressed. The case of ergodic signals is revisited in view of a gap in the classic work of H. Kunita (1971). We give new bounds for the exponential stability rates, which do not depend on the observations. In the non-ergodic case, the stability is implied by identifiability conditions, formulated explicitly in terms of the transition intensities matrix and the observation structure.
Ergodic properties of the signal-filtering pair are studied for continuous time finite Markov chains, observed in white noise. The obtained law of large numbers is applied to the stability problem of the nonlinear filter with respect to initial conditions. The Furstenberg-Khasminskii formula is derived for the top Lyapunov exponent of the Zakai equation and is used to estimate the stability index of the filter.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble square root filter (ESRF) are data assimilation methods used to combine high dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Despite their widespread usage in climate science and oil reservoir simulation, very little is known about the long-time behavior of these methods and why they are effective when applied with modest ensemble sizes in large dimensional turbulent dynamical systems. By following the basic principles of energy dissipation and controllability of filters, this paper establishes a simple, systematic and rigorous framewo…
We provide some sharp criteria for studying the ergodicity and asymptotic stability of general Feller semigroups on Polish metric spaces. As application, the 2D Navier-Stokes equations with degenerate stochastic forcing will be simply revisited.
For particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters it is of practical importance to understand how and why data assimilation methods can be effective when used with a fixed small number of particles, since for many large-scale applications it is not practical to deploy algorithms close to the large particle limit asymptotic. In this paper we address this question for particle filters and, in particular, study their accuracy (in the small noise limit) and ergodicity (for noisy signal and observation) without appealing to the large particle number limit. We first overview the accuracy and minoriza…
We establish conditions for an exponential rate of forgetting of the initial distribution of nonlinear filters in $V$-norm, path-wise along almost all observation sequences. In contrast to previous works, our results allow for unbounded test functions. The analysis is conducted in an general setup involving nonnegative kernels in a random environment which allows treatment of filters and prediction filters in a single framework. The main result is illustrated on two examples, the first showing that a total variation norm stability result obtained by Douc et al. (2009) can be extended to $V$-no…
In this paper, the forgetting of the initial distribution for a non-ergodic Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is studied. A new set of conditions is proposed to establish the forgetting property of the filter, which significantly extends all the existing results. Both a pathwise-type convergence of the total variation distance of the filter started from two different initial distributions, and a convergence in expectation are considered. The results are illustrated using generic models of non-ergodic HMM and extend all the results known so far.
This paper deals with ergodic theorems for particular time-inhomogeneous Markov processes, whose the time-inhomogeneity is asymptotically periodic. Under a Lyapunov/minorization condition, it is shown that, for any measurable bounded function $f$, the time average $\frac{1}{t} \int_0^t f(X_s)ds$ converges in $\mathbb{L}^2$ towards a limiting distribution, starting from any initial distribution for the process $(X_t)_{t \geq 0}$. This convergence can be improved to an almost sure convergence under an additional assumption on the initial measure. This result will be then applied to show the exis…
New relations between ergodic rate, L_p convergence rates, and asymptotic behavior of tail probabilities for hitting times of a time homogeneous Markov process are established. For L_p convergence rates and related spectral and functional properties (spectral gap and Poincare inequality) sufficient conditions are given in the terms of an exponential ϕ-coupling. This provides sufficient conditions for L_p convergence rates in the terms of appropriate combination of `local mixing' and `recurrence' conditions on the initial process, typical in the ergodic theory of Markov processes. The range of …
A successful method to describe the asymptotic behavior of various deterministic and stochastic processes such as asymptotically autonomous differential equations or stochastic approximation processes is to relate it to an appropriately chosen limit semiflow. Benaïm and Schreiber (2000) define a general class of such stochastic processes, which they call weak asymptotic pseudotrajectories and study their ergodic behavior. In particular, they prove that the weak* limit points of the empirical measures associated to such processes are almost surely invariant for the associated deterministic semi…
The purpose of this paper is to prove ergodicity and provide asymptotic formulae for probabilities of threshold crossing related to smooth approximations of three fundamental nonlinear mechanical models: (a) an elasto-plastic oscillator, (b) an oscillator with dry friction, (c) an oscillator constrained by an obstacle (one sided or two sided) and subject to impacts, all three in presence of white or colored noise. Relying on a groundbreaking result on density estimates for degenerate diffusions by Delarue and Menozzi (2010), we identify Lyapunov functions that satisfy appropriate conditions le…
It has been established under very general conditions that the ergodic properties of Markov processes are inherited by their conditional distributions given partial information. While the existing theory provides a rather complete picture of classical filtering models, many infinite-dimensional problems are outside its scope. Far from being a technical issue, the infinite-dimensional setting gives rise to surprising phenomena and new questions in filtering theory. The aim of this paper is to discuss some elementary examples, conjectures, and general theory that arise in this setting, and to hi…
Consider a filtering process associated to a hidden Markov model with densities for which both the state space and the observation space are complete, separable, metric spaces. If the underlying, hidden Markov chain is strongly ergodic and the filtering process fulfills a certain coupling condition we prove that, in the limit, the distribution of the filtering process is independent of the initial distribution of the hidden Markov chain. If furthermore the hidden Markov chain is uniformly ergodic, then we prove that the filtering process converges in distribution.
We construct a stationary Markov process with trivial tail sigma-field and a nondegenerate observation process such that the corresponding nonlinear filtering process is not uniquely ergodic. This settles in the negative a conjecture of the author in the ergodic theory of nonlinear filters arising from an erroneous proof in the classic paper of H. Kunita (1971), wherein an exchange of intersection and supremum of sigma-fields is taken for granted.
The paper considers an Euler discretization based numerical scheme for approximating functionals of invariant distribution of an ergodic diffusion. Convergence of the numerical scheme is shown for suitably chosen discretization step, and a thorough error analysis is conducted by proving central limit theorem and moderate deviation principle for the error term. The paper is a first step in understanding efficiency of discretization based numerical schemes for estimating invariant distributions, which is comparatively much less studied than the schemes used for generating approximate trajectorie…
We study the asymptotic relations between certain singular and constrained control problems for one-dimensional diffusions with both discounted and ergodic objectives. By constrained control problems we mean that controlling is allowed only at independent Poisson arrival times. We show that when the underlying diffusion is recurrent, the solutions of the discounted problems converge in Abelian sense to those of their ergodic counterparts. Moreover, we show that the solutions of the constrained problems converge to those of their singular counterparts when the Poisson rate tends to infinity. We…
In this work, we consider an inhomogeneous (discrete time) Markov chain and are interested in its long time behavior. We provide sufficient conditions to ensure that some of its asymptotic properties can be related to the ones of a homogeneous (continuous time) Markov process. Renowned examples such as a bandit algorithms, weighted random walks or decreasing step Euler schemes are included in our framework. Our results are related to functional limit theorems, but the approach differs from the standard "Tightness/Identification" argument; our method is unified and based on the notion of pseudo…
Asymptotic local equivalence in the sense of Le Cam is established for inference on the drift in multidimensional ergodic diffusions and an accompanying sequence of Gaussian shift experiments. The nonparametric local neighbourhoods can be attained for any dimension, provided the regularity of the drift is sufficiently large. In addition, a heteroskedastic Gaussian regression experiment is given, which is also locally asymptotically equivalent and which does not depend on the centre of localisation. For one direction of the equivalence an explicit Markov kernel is constructed.
We prove that bootstrap type Monte Carlo particle filters approximate the optimal nonlinear filter in a time average sense uniformly with respect to the time horizon when the signal is ergodic and the particle system satisfies a tightness property. The latter is satisfied without further assumptions when the signal state space is compact, as well as in the noncompact setting when the signal is geometrically ergodic and the observations satisfy additional regularity assumptions.
The nonlinear filtering equation is said to be stable if it ``forgets'' the initial condition. It is known that the filter might be unstable even if the signal is an ergodic Markov chain. In general, the filtering stability requires stronger signal ergodicity provided by the, so called, mixing condition. The latter is formulated in terms of the transition probability density of the signal. The most restrictive requirement of the mixing condition is the uniform positiveness of this density. We show that it might be relaxed regardless of an observation process structure.
This short survey is aimed at sketching the ergodic-theoretic aspects of the author's recent studies on Weyl's eigenvalue asymptotics for a \emph{"geometrically canonical" Laplacian} defined by the author on some self-conformal circle packing fractals including the classical \emph{Apollonian gasket}. The main result being surveyed is obtained by applying Kesten's renewal theorem [\emph{Ann.\ Probab.}\ \textbf{2} (1974), 355--386, Theorem 2] for functionals of Markov chains on general state spaces and provides an alternative probabilistic proof of the result by Oh and Shah [\emph{Invent.\ Math.…
We develop necessary and sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the invariant measure of the filtering process associated to an ergodic hidden Markov model in a finite or countable state space. These results provide a complete solution to a problem posed by Blackwell (1957), and subsume earlier partial results due to Kaijser, Kochman and Reeds. The proofs of our main results are based on the stability theory of nonlinear filters.
Asymptotic behavior of the three-dimensional stochastic Navier-Stokes equations with Markov switching in additive noises is studied for incompressible fluid flow in a bounded domain in the three-dimensional space. To study such a system, we introduce a family of regularized equations and investigate the asymptotic behavior of the regularized equations first. The existence an ergodic measure for the regularized system is established via the Krylov-Bogolyubov method. Then the existence of an stationary measure to the original system is obtained by extracting a limit from the ergodic measures of …
The goal of this paper is to develop a general method to establish conditional ergodicity of infinite-dimensional Markov chains. Given a Markov chain in a product space, we aim to understand the ergodic properties of its conditional distributions given one of the components. Such questions play a fundamental role in the ergodic theory of nonlinear filters. In the setting of Harris chains, conditional ergodicity has been established under general nondegeneracy assumptions. Unfortunately, Markov chains in infinite-dimensional state spaces are rarely amenable to the classical theory of Harris cha…
This is partly a survey article for Constructive Approximation's Special Issue on Approximation and Statistical Physics. It reviews results of B. Shiffman-S.Zelditch, R. Berman. S. Boucksom, D. Witt-Nystrom, T. Bloom, O. Zeitouni and others on Bergman kernels and the asymptotic equilibrium distribution of zeros of random polynomials and more general holomorphic sections of ample line bundles. The article also gives a new definition of `quantum ergodic section of a line bundle' for Hermitian line bundles with general smooth metrics and Bernstein-Markov measurs. It proves the asymptotic equilibr…
We study the partial maxima of stationary α-stable processes. We relate their asymptotic behavior to the ergodic theoretical properties of the flow. We observe a sharp change in the asymptotic behavior of the sequence of partial maxima as flow changes from being dissipative to being conservative, and argue that this may indicate a change from a short memory process to a long memory process.
We present formulas for quasi-ergodic limits of finite absorbing Markov chains. Since the irreducible case has been solved in 1965 by Darroch and Seneta, we focus on the reducible case, and our results are based on a very precise asymptotic analysis of the (exponential and polynomial) growth behaviour along admissible paths
We investigate the fractional Vasicek model described by the stochastic differential equation $dX_t=(α-βX_t)\,dt+γ\,dB^H_t$, $X_0=x_0$, driven by the fractional Brownian motion $B^H$ with the known Hurst parameter $H\in (1/2,1)$. We study the maximum likelihood estimators for unknown parameters $α$ and $β$ in the non-ergodic case (when $β<0$) for arbitrary $x_0\in \mathbb{R}$, generalizing the result of Tanaka, Xiao and Yu (2019) for particular $x_0=α/β$, derive their asymptotic distributions and prove their asymptotic independence.
In this work, we show existence of invariant ergodic measure for switched linear dynamical systems (SLDSs) under a norm-stability assumption of system dynamics in some unbounded subset of $\mathbb{R}^{n}$. Consequently, given a stationary Markov control policy, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for learning expected reward (w.r.t the invariant ergodic measure our closed-loop system mixes to) from time-averages using Birkhoff's Ergodic Theorem. The presented results provide a foundation for deriving non-asymptotic analysis for average reward-based optimal control of SLDSs. Finally, we illustrate …
Using elementary methods, we prove that for a countable Markov chain $P$ of ergodic degree $d > 0$ the rate of convergence towards the stationary distribution is subgeometric of order $n^{-d}$, provided the initial distribution satisfies certain conditions of asymptotic decay. An example, modelling a renewal process and providing a markovian approximation scheme in dynamical system theory, is worked out in detail, illustrating the relationships between convergence behaviour, analytic properties of the generating functions associated to transition probabilities and spectral properties of the Ma…
We study the large time behavior of solutions to fully nonlinear parabolic equations of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman type arising typically in stochastic control theory with control both on drift and diffusion coefficients. We prove that, as time horizon goes to infinity, the long run average solution is characterized by a nonlinear ergodic equation. Our results hold under dissipativity conditions, and without any nondegeneracy assumption on the diffusion term. Our approach uses mainly probabilistic arguments relying on new backward SDE representation for nonlinear parabolic, elliptic and ergodic e…
In this paper, new conditions for the stability of V-geometrically ergodic Markov chains are introduced. The results are based on an extension of the standard perturbation theory formulated by Keller and Liverani. The continuity and higher regularity properties are investigated. As an illustration, an asymptotic expansion of the invariant probability measure for an autoregressive model with i.i.d. noises (with a non-standard probability density function) is obtained.
We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential boundedness of potential functions associated with the i-cSMC algorithm provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform ergodicity of the i-cSMC Markov chain, as well as quantitative bounds on its (uniformly geometric) rate of convergence. Furthermore, we show that the i-cSMC Markov chain cannot even be geometrically ergodic if this essential boundedn…
We consider the parameter estimation problem for the non-ergodic fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as $dX_t=θX_tdt+dB_t,\ t\geq0$, with a parameter $θ>0$, where $B$ is a fractional Brownian motion of Hurst index $H\in(1/2,1)$. We study the consistency and the asymptotic distributions of the least squares estimator $\hatθ_t$ of $θ$ based on the observation $\{X_s,\ s\in[0,t]\}$ as $t\rightarrow\infty$.
We consider a hidden Markov model with multiplicative noise emerging from studies of software reliability. We show the stability of the optimal filter with respect to general initial conditions in the total variation- and $L^p$-norm and deduce explicit rates. Remarkably, stability turns out to be independent of the ergodic behavior of the signal.
We consider the problem of robustly maximizing the growth rate of investor wealth in the presence of model uncertainty. Possible models are all those under which the assets' region $E$ and instantaneous covariation $c$ are known, and where additionally the assets are stable in that their occupancy time measures converge to a law with density $p$. This latter assumption is motivated by the observed stability of ranked relative market capitalizations for equity markets. We seek to identify the robust optimal growth rate, as well as a trading strategy which achieves this rate in all models. Under…
We revisit functional central limit theorems for additive functionals of ergodic Markov diffusion processes. Translated in the language of partial differential equations of evolution, they appear as diffusion limits in the asymptotic analysis of Fokker-Planck type equations. We focus on the square integrable framework, and we provide tractable conditions on the infinitesimal generator, including degenerate or anomalously slow diffusions. We take advantage on recent developments in the study of the trend to the equilibrium of ergodic diffusions. We discuss examples and formulate open problems.
We consider a bivariate stationary Markov chain $(X_n,Y_n)_{n\ge0}$ in a Polish state space, where only the process $(Y_n)_{n\ge0}$ is presumed to be observable. The goal of this paper is to investigate the ergodic theory and stability properties of the measure-valued process $(Π_n)_{n\ge0}$, where $Π_n$ is the conditional distribution of $X_n$ given $Y_0,...,Y_n$. We show that the ergodic and stability properties of $(Π_n)_{n\ge0}$ are inherited from the ergodicity of the unobserved process $(X_n)_{n\ge0}$ provided that the Markov chain $(X_n,Y_n)_{n\ge0}$ is nondegenerate, that is, its trans…
Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of the parameter $θ$ in the square-root diffusion process is studied under high frequency sampling. Different from the previous study of Overbeck and Rydén(1998) under low-frequency sampling, high-frequency of data provides very simple form of the asymptotic covariance matrix. Through easy-to-compute preliminary contrast functions, a practical two-stage manner without numerical optimization is formulated in order to conduct not only an asymptotically efficient estimation of the drift parameters, but also high-precision estimator of the diffusion parameter. …
The nonlinear filter for an ergodic signal observed in white noise is said to achieve maximal accuracy if the stationary filtering error vanishes as the signal to noise ratio diverges. We give a general characterization of the maximal accuracy property in terms of various systems theoretic notions. When the signal state space is a finite set explicit necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained, while the linear Gaussian case reduces to a classic result of Kwakernaak and Sivan (1972).
We provide quantitative estimates in total variation distance for positive semi-groups, which can be non-conservative and non-homogeneous. The techniques relies on a family of conservative semigroups that describes a typical particle and Doeblin's type conditions for coupling the associated process. Our aim is to provide quantitative estimates for linear partial differential equations and we develop several applications for population dynamics in varying environment. We start with the asymptotic profile for a growth diffusion model with time and space non-homogeneity. Moreover we provide gener…
Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have been limited. In this paper, we obtain strong invariance principles for a broad class of ergodic Markov processes. Strong invariance principles provide a unified framework for analysing commonly used estimators of the asymptotic variance in settings with a dependence structure. We demonstrate how this can be used to analyse the batch means method for simulation…
