该研究从第一性原理提出温度反馈回路框架，推导得出气候敏感性为1.15 K (W m⁻²)⁻¹，其预测的升温与观测及查尼估算值一致，为预测地表温度响应提供了基础。
摘要：
自1979年《查尼报告》以来，气候科学中一个长期存在的挑战是确定地球气候对大气顶（TOA）单位外部能量输入的升温幅度。本研究中，我们从第一性原理出发表明，大气-地表柱内的温度反馈表现为一组反馈回路，每个回路由小于1的固有增益控制，通过连续反馈循环实现能量的几何放大。特别地，以地表为中心的温度反馈回路决定了单位TOA强迫下地表能量的放大倍数。非温度反馈导致的地表能量放大，由气候平均态下地表向下长波辐射对太阳能吸收的放大倍数估算得出。气候敏感性随后表现为这两种放大倍数与地表普朗克反馈参数的乘积。由1980-2000年气候平均态推导的气候敏感性为1.15 K (W m⁻²)⁻¹。该值得出1980-2000年至2000-2020年的升温为0.44 K，与观测到的0.41 K升温一致；对于CO₂加倍和四倍加倍，平衡升温分别为3.02 K和5.83 K，其中前者与接近3摄氏度的查尼估算值一致。该框架为从气候平均态预测全球地表温度对其他外部强迫情景的响应提供了基础。
英文摘要：
A long-standing challenge in climate science since the Charney Report in 1979 is to determine how much the Earth's climate warms in response to a unit external energy input at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). In this study, we show from first principles that temperature feedback within an atmosphere-surface column operates as a set of feedback circuits, each governed by an intrinsic gain less than unity, leading to geometric amplification of energy through successive feedback cycles. In particular, the surface-centered temperature feedback circuit determines the amplification of surface energy per unit TOA forcing. The surface energy amplification by non-temperature feedback is estimated from the amplification of solar energy absorption by downward longwave radiation at the surface in the climate mean state. Climate sensitivity then emerges as the product of these two amplifications scaled by the surface Planck feedback parameter. The climate sensitivity derived from the 1980-2000 climate mean state is 1.15 K (W m$^{-2}$)$^{-1}$. It yields a warming of 0.44 K from 1980-2000 to 2000-2020, consistent with the observed warming of 0.41 K, and equilibrium warmings of 3.02 and 5.83 K for CO$_2$ doubling and quadrupling, respectively, the former consistent with the Charney estimate near 3 degrees C. The framework provides a basis for predicting global surface temperature responses to other external forcing scenarios from the climate mean state.
Palaeo data have been frequently used to determine the equilibrium (Charney) climate sensitivity $S^a$, and - if slow feedback processes (e.g. land ice-albedo) are adequately taken into account - they indicate a similar range as estimates based on instrumental data and climate model results. Most studies implicitly assume the (fast) feedback processes to be independent of the background climate state, e.g., equally strong during warm and cold periods. Here we assess the dependency of the fast feedback processes on the background climate state using data of the last 800 kyr and a conceptual cli…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not take such state dependency into account; they only consider changes in (global mean) temperature and assume all feedbacks are linearly related to that. This makes (transient) changes in feedback strengths almost intangible and generally leads to underestimation of future warming. Here, we present a multivariate (and spatially explicit) framework that facilit…
In this paper we derive a new formula for the global temperature change and major feedback portions in the climate response. In our earlier paper we calculated from the experimental values the sensitivity about ${\rm 0.058~K/(W/m^2)}$. This means the negative feedback which reduced the sensitivity by factor $2.13$. In this paper we explain and derive the major portions in the feedback coefficient using the observed energy budget at the top of the climate and on the surface of the earth. The results also support strongly our earlier results of the low climate sensitivity ($ΔT_{\rm 2CO_2}\approx…
The Sun becomes brighter with time, but Earth's climate is roughly temperate for life during its long-term history; for early Earth, this is known as the Faint Young Sun Problem (FYSP). Besides the carbonate-silicate feedback, recent researches suggest that a long-term cloud feedback may partially solve the FYSP. However, the general circulation models they used cannot resolve convection and clouds explicitly. This study re-investigates the clouds using a near-global cloud-permitting model without cumulus convection parameterization. Our results confirm that a stabilizing shortwave cloud feedb…
Emergent constraints use relationships between future and current climate states to constrain projections of climate response. Here, we introduce a statistical, hierarchical emergent constraint (HEC) framework in order to link future and current climate with observations. Under Gaussian assumptions, the mean and variance of the future state is shown analytically to be a function of the signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio between data-model error and current-climate uncertainty, and the correlation between future and current climate states. We apply the HEC to the climate-change, snow-albedo feedback, …
Anthropogenic Heat in Urban Climate Systems: Forcing, Sensitivity, and Feedback
Institute of Science Tokyo（东京科学大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；National Institute for Environmental Studies（国立环境研究所）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Boston University（波士顿大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5, with meltwater discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctica's meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures by 1 C at the ice margin, beyond rates currently projected. In contrast, 2-10 C cooler surface air and ocean temperatur…
In this paper, we show how the MEP hypothesis may be used to build simple climate models without representing explicitly the energy transport by the atmosphere. The purpose is twofold. First, we assess the performance of the MEP hypothesis by comparing a simple model with minimal input data to a complex, state-of-the-art General Circulation Model. Next, we show how to improve the realism of MEP climate models by including climate feedbacks, focusing on the case of the water-vapour feedback. We also discuss the dependence of the entropy production rate and predicted surface temperature on the r…
When evaluating the effect of CO2 changes on the earth's climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO2 concentration (IRF2xCO2) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks, or a dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base-state. In this paper, we show that the IRF2xCO2 is not constant, but also depends on the climatological base-state, increasing by ~25% for every doubling of CO2, and has increased by ~10% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to stratospheric cooling, …
By reflecting solar radiation and reducing longwave emissions, clouds regulate the earth's radiation budget, impacting atmospheric circulation and cloud dynamics. Given the diurnal fluctuation of shortwave and longwave radiation, a shift in the cloud cycle phase (CCP) may lead to substantial feedbacks to the climate system. While most efforts have focused on the overall cloud feedback, the response of CCP to climate change has received much less attention. Here we analyze the variations of CCP using both long-term global satellite records and general circulation models (GCM) simulations to eva…
Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to …
Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stoc…
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on many time scales. In practise this means that the 'equilibrium' will only be relative to fixing the slow feedback processes before comparing palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates with estimates from model simulations. In addition, information from the late Pleistocene ice age cycles indicates that the climate cycles between cold and warm regimes, and the clim…
Colorado State University（科罗拉多州立大学）；Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）；Met Office Hadley Centre（英国气象局哈德莱中心）；University of Leeds（利兹大学）
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1°C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperat…
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are valuable tools that consider the interactions between socioeconomic systems and the climate system. Decision-makers and policy analysts employ IAMs to calculate the marginalized monetary cost of climate damages resulting from an incremental emission of a greenhouse gas. Used within the context of regulating anthropogenic methane emissions, this metric is called the social cost of methane (SC-CH$_4$). Because several key IAMs used for social cost estimation contain a simplified model structure that prevents the endogenous modeling of non-CO$_2$ greenhouse…
Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of an…
In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (Källén, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets. In the nondimensional form the model is prone to several simplifications facilitating the subsequent analysis. We consider the limiting case of the stationary snow line for which the phase plane can be completely analysed and the type of each stationary point can be determined. One of them can exhibit the Hopf bifurcation for which occurrence we find the sufficie…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model and a statistical atmosphere model. The statistical atmosphere model is based on linear regressions of data from a fully coupled climate model on sea surface temperature both locally and hemispherically averaged, being the footprint of Atlantic meridional overturning variability. It provides dynamic boundary conditions to the ocean model for heat, freshwater…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the ana…
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disast…
The climate record preserved in polar glaciers, mountain glaciers, and widespread cave deposits shows repeated occurrence of abrupt global transitions between cold/dry stadial and warm/wet interstadial states during glacial periods. These abrupt transitions occur on millennial time scale and in the absence of any known global-scale forcing. Here a theory is advanced implicating a feedback between atmospheric dust and the hydrological cycle in producing these abrupt transitions. Calculations are performed using a radiative-convective model that includes the interaction of aerosols with radiatio…
Considerations of Earth climate sensitivity based on peculiarities of planetary heat capacity using system identification method: Runaway greenhouse effect scenario is still possible
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the …
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since global climate models cannot be fully equilibrated in practice, extrapolation techniques are used to estimate the equilibrium state from transient warming simulations. Because of the abundance of climate feedbacks - spanning a wide range of temporal scales - it is hard to extract long-term behaviour from short-time series; predominantly used techniques are only c…
A Renewable Energy and Materials Economy (REME) is proposed as the solution to the climate change threat. REME mimics nature to produce carbon neutral liquid fuels and chemicals as well as carbon negative materials by using water, CO$_2$ from the atmosphere and renewable energy as inputs. By being in harmony with nature REME has a positive feedback between economic development and climate change protection. In REME the feedback driven accelerated rate of economic growth enables the climate change threat to be addressed in a timely manner. It is also cost-effective protection because it sequest…
Feedbacks that can destabilize the climates of synchronously-rotating rocky planets may arise on planets with strong day-night surface temperature contrasts. Earth-like habitable-zone (HZ) planets maintain stable surface liquid water over geological time. This requires equilibrium between the temperature-dependent rate of greenhouse-gas consumption by weathering,and greenhouse-gas resupply by other processes. Detected small-radius exoplanets, and anticipated M-dwarf HZ rocky planets, are expected to be tidally locked. We investigate two feedbacks that can destabilize climate on tidally-locked …
In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of ab…
We determine the volcano climate sensitivity and response time for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. This is achieved using observational measurements of the temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere and the aerosol optical density (AOD) in combination with a radiative forcing proxy for AOD. Using standard linear response theory we find sensitivity = 0.18 +- 0.04 K/(W/m2), which implies a negative feedback of -1.0 +- 0.4. The intrinsic response time is 5.8+-1.0 months. Both results are contrary to the conventional paradigm that includes long response times and positive feedback. In addition, w…
Global warming due to human-made gases, mainly CO2, is already 0.8°C and deleterious climate impacts are growing worldwide. More warming is 'in the pipeline' because Earth is out of energy balance, with absorbed solar energy exceeding planetary heat radiation. Maintaining a climate that resembles the Holocene, the world of stable shorelines in which civilization developed, requires rapidly reducing fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Such a scenario is economically sensible and has multiple benefits for humanity and other species. Yet fossil fuel extraction is expanding, including highly carbon-intensi…
Most of the existing prediction methods gave a false alarm regarding the El Niño event in 2014. A crucial aspect is currently limiting the success of such predictions, i.e. the stability of the slowly varying Pacific climate. This property determines whether sea surface temperature perturbations will be amplified by coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or not. The so-called Bjerknes stability index has been developed for this purpose, but its evaluation is severely constrained by data availability. Here we present a new promising background stability index based on complex network theory. This i…
The Gaia hypothesis (Lovelock and Margulis, 1974) proposes that there is a control system operating at global level that regulates climate and chemistry at a habitable state for the biota. Here we provide statistically significant observational evidence that a feedback control system moderating atmospheric temperature is presently operating coherently at global scale, that is to say, observational evidence for Gaia. Further, this control system is of a sophisticated type, involving the corrective feedback not only of a linear error term but also its derivative and its integral. This makes it o…
Cloud processes are the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the global temperature response to carbon dioxide rise. Still, the role of precipitation efficiency (PE) -- surface rain per unit column -- integrated condensation -- is yet to be quantified. Here we use 36 limited-domain cloud resolving simulations from the Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project to show that they strongly imply climate warming will result in increases to net precipitation efficiency. We then analyze 35 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Ph…
The habitable zone (HZ) is the circumstellar region where a planet can sustain surface liquid water. Searching for terrestrial planets in the HZ of nearby stars is the stated goal of ongoing and planned extrasolar planet surveys. Previous estimates of the inner edge of the HZ were based on one-dimensional radiative-convective models. The most serious limitation of these models is the inability to predict cloud behavior. Here we use global climate models with sophisticated cloud schemes to show that due to a stabilizing cloud feedback, tidally locked planets can be habitable at twice the stella…
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and interglacial periods of the past 650,000 years, even under the "fast response" framework where the convenient if artificial distinction between forcing and feedback is assumed. Atmospheric CO2 variations generally follow changes in temperature and other climatic variables rather than preceding them. Likewise, there is no confirmation of the often-posited signi…
University of California, Irvine（加州大学尔湾分校）；Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP)（人工智能与物理学习地球中心）；CMCC Foundation — Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change（CMCC基金会——欧洲-地中海气候变化中心）；Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)（德国航空航天中心）；University of Bremen（不来梅大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Ecole Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；University of Salento（萨伦托大学）
