Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are valuable tools that consider the interactions between socioeconomic systems and the climate system. Decision-makers and policy analysts employ IAMs to calculate the marginalized monetary cost of climate damages resulting from an incremental emission of a greenhouse gas. Used within the context of regulating anthropogenic methane emissions, this metric is called the social cost of methane (SC-CH$_4$). Because several key IAMs used for social cost estimation contain a simplified model structure that prevents the endogenous modeling of non-CO$_2$ greenhouse gases, very few estimates of the SC-CH$_4$ exist. For this reason, IAMs should be updated to better represent methane cycle dynamics that are consistent with comprehensive Earth System Models. We include feedbacks of climate change on the methane cycle to estimate the SC-CH$_4$. Our expected value for the SC-CH$_4$ is \$1163/t-CH$_4$ under a constant 3.0% discount rate. This represents a 44% increase relative to a mean estimate without feedbacks on the methane cycle.
Atmospheric Methane Removal as a Third Climate Intervention: Termination Risks and Air Pollutant Effects
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS- UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay（气候与环境科学实验室，IPSL，CEA-CNRS-UVSQ，巴黎萨克雷大学）；Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)（国立环境研究所地球系统部）；Division of Physical Resource Theory, Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学空间、地球与环境系物理资源理论分部）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Tour-Solaire（图索莱尔）；CICERO Center for International Climate Research（国际气候变化研究中心）；Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)（全球环境战略研究所）
Coal mines are globally an important source of methane and also one of the largest point sources of methane. We present a high-resolution 0.1deg x 0.1deg bottom-up gridded emission inventory for methane emissions from coal mines in India and Australia, which are among the top five coal-producing countries in 2018. The aim is to reduce the uncertainty in local coal mine methane emissions and to improve the spatial localization to support monitoring and mitigation of these emissions. For India, we improve the spatial allocation of the emissions by identifying the exact location of surface and un…
The methane cycle is a key component of the Earth system that links planetary climate, biological metabolism, and the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, oxygen, sulfur, and hydrogen. However, currently lacking is a numerical model capable of simulating a diversity of environments in the ocean where methane can be produced and destroyed, and with the flexibility to be able to explore not only relatively recent perturbations to Earth's methane cycle but also to probe methane cycling and associated climate impacts under the reducing conditions characteristic of most of Earth history and like…
Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, with a higher radiative forcing per unit mass and shorter atmospheric lifetime than carbon dioxide. The remote sensing of methane in regions of industrial activity is a key step toward the accurate monitoring of emissions that drive climate change. Whilst the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinal-5P satellite is capable of providing daily global measurement of methane columns, data are often compromised by cloud cover. Here, we develop a statistical model which uses nitrogen dioxide concentration data from TROPOMI to efficiently …
Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) over 2019 and 2020 to quantify emissions from O&G ultra-emitters. Ultra-emitters are primarily detected over the largest O&G basins of the world, follow…
Machine Learning for Methane Detection and Quantification from Space - A survey
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；OHB Digital Connect GmbH（OHB数字连接有限公司）；University of Valencia（瓦伦西亚大学）；European Space Agency（欧洲空间局）；Munich Center for Machine Learning（慕尼黑机器学习中心）
Considerations of Earth climate sensitivity based on peculiarities of planetary heat capacity using system identification method: Runaway greenhouse effect scenario is still possible
Natural sinks and sources of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere of Russian regions and their contribution to climate change in the 21st century as calculated with CMIP6 model ensemble
The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indicators of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially over long time horizons. In making decisions, it is necessary to take into account that the role of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from the terrestrial ecosyst…
Stochastic coupling of climate variables and ice volume over the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles
Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University（诺尔迪塔，瑞典皇家理工学院和斯德哥尔摩大学）；Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院数学系）；Departments of Mathematics, Earth & Planetary Sciences, and Physics, Yale University（耶鲁大学数学、地球与行星科学及物理系）
Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases -- OPTiMEM and the Heat Conjecture(s)
Butterfly Sciences（蝴蝶科学）；Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校北极与高山研究所）；Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（美国国家海洋和大气管理局全球监测实验室）；Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University（北亚利桑那大学生态系统科学与社会中心）；London Institute of Banking and Finance（伦敦银行与金融学院）；Climate Central（气候中心）；NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI（美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境卫星、数据和信息服务中心）
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and interglacial periods of the past 650,000 years, even under the "fast response" framework where the convenient if artificial distinction between forcing and feedback is assumed. Atmospheric CO2 variations generally follow changes in temperature and other climatic variables rather than preceding them. Likewise, there is no confirmation of the often-posited signi…
