将长期气候减缓与强化甲烷行动对齐

Global Assessment of Oil and Gas Methane Ultra-Emitters

Methane emissions from oil and gas (O&G) production and transmission represent a significant contribution to climate change. These emissions comprise sporadic releases of large amounts of methane during maintenance operations or equipment failures not accounted for in current inventory estimates. We collected and analyzed hundreds of very large releases from atmospheric methane images sampled by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) over 2019 and 2020 to quantify emissions from O&G ultra-emitters. Ultra-emitters are primarily detected over the largest O&G basins of the world, follow…

Oceanic and atmospheric methane cycling in the cGENIE Earth system model

The methane cycle is a key component of the Earth system that links planetary climate, biological metabolism, and the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, oxygen, sulfur, and hydrogen. However, currently lacking is a numerical model capable of simulating a diversity of environments in the ocean where methane can be produced and destroyed, and with the flexibility to be able to explore not only relatively recent perturbations to Earth's methane cycle but also to probe methane cycling and associated climate impacts under the reducing conditions characteristic of most of Earth history and like…

俄罗斯地区大气中CO2和CH4的自然源与汇及其对21世纪气候变化的贡献——基于CMIP6模式集合的计算

Natural sinks and sources of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere of Russian regions and their contribution to climate change in the 21st century as calculated with CMIP6 model ensemble

基于CMIP6模式集合，研究俄罗斯21世纪自然CO2和CH4通量变化，发现模式差异大，CO2通量从-2.5到2.5 GtC/年，甲烷排放增长可达300%，自然CH4排放加速增温0.03-0.09 K。

用于太空甲烷检测与量化的机器学习——综述

Machine Learning for Methane Detection and Quantification from Space - A survey

本文综述了太空甲烷检测与量化的传统及机器学习方法，指出基于U-net和transformer的CNN模型优于传统方法，并探讨了数据集、评估指标及未来研究方向。

Enhanced monitoring of atmospheric methane from space over the Permian basin with hierarchical Bayesian inference

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, with a higher radiative forcing per unit mass and shorter atmospheric lifetime than carbon dioxide. The remote sensing of methane in regions of industrial activity is a key step toward the accurate monitoring of emissions that drive climate change. Whilst the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinal-5P satellite is capable of providing daily global measurement of methane columns, data are often compromised by cloud cover. Here, we develop a statistical model which uses nitrogen dioxide concentration data from TROPOMI to efficiently …

永久冻土反馈下甲烷减排对全球温度的影响

Effect of Methane Mitigation on Global Temperature under a Permafrost Feedback

本文通过碳循环模型与永久冻土反馈模块模拟至2300年，发现甲烷减排的长期幅度而非减排速率决定长期温度变化，加速减排无法阻止永久冻土反馈，政策应注重持久减排。

透明框架评估首次全球盘点后气候承诺的修订

Transparent framework to assess the revision of climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake

提出透明框架按国评估气候承诺，显示当前承诺致2100年升温1.96°C，需净零目标、甲烷承诺及森林宣言限制超调，最终降至1.5°C。

Model estimates for contribution of natural and anthropogenic CO$_2$ and CH$_4$ emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate changes in the 21st century

The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indicators of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, especially over long time horizons. In making decisions, it is necessary to take into account that the role of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere from the terrestrial ecosyst…

利用EMIT的超光谱辐射测量通过深度学习实现甲烷点源的全球监测

Global monitoring of methane point sources using deep learning on hyperspectral radiance measurements from EMIT

本文提出MAPL-EMIT模型，通过整合光谱和空间信息，利用EMIT仪器的完整辐射光谱数据，实现对甲烷增强的高精度检测，提升全球甲烷点源监测的效率和准确性。

1998-2012年增暖减缓的人为贡献

Anthropogenic contributions to slow warming over 1998-2012

本文利用简化气候模式和观测约束统计模型，量化了1998-2012年全球增暖减缓中各因素的贡献，发现拉尼娜、太阳活动下降及人类排放变化共同主导了减缓，表明人为减排对控制全球变暖具有重要作用。

在过去的冰川-间冰期循环中二氧化碳气候强迫的次要作用对人为温室气体强迫未来可能气候影响的定量影响

Quantitative implications of the secondary role of carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial-interglacial cycles for the likely future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcings

对最近参考文献的回顾未能定量地证实二氧化碳（CO2）辐射强迫是过去65万年冰期和间冰期温度、冰盖体积和相关气候变量变化的主要推动力，即使在“快速响应”框架下，假设强迫和反馈之间存在方便的人工区分。大气CO2的变化通常跟随温度和其他气候变量的变化，而不是在它们之前。同样，甲烷（CH 4）强迫的经常假设的重要支持作用也没有得到证实，尽管它的大气响应时间更快，但它实在太小了，从400 ppb的变化到小于0.2 W/m2。我们无法定量验证大量的定性建议，即在米兰科维奇轨道周期中发生的CO2和CH 4强迫占全球温度，海平面和冰量的冰川/间冰期周期变化幅度的一半以上。因此，我们推断，自然气候变率，特别是在关键季节和地理位置的日照强迫的持续性，采取密切相关的热，水文和冰冻圈的变化（如水蒸气，云，冰-冰反馈）本身足以解释代理派生的，全球和区域，气候和环境的相变在古气候。如果是这样的话，也许应该将人为的温室气体排放放在适当的背景下，将其中期气候影响与许多自然强迫和反馈的影响分开，这些自然强迫和反馈在古气候时代可能证明同样重要。