Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato
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32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci)
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Dangerous
Stochastic coupling of climate variables and ice volume over the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles
Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University（诺尔迪塔，瑞典皇家理工学院和斯德哥尔摩大学）；Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院数学系）；Departments of Mathematics, Earth & Planetary Sciences, and Physics, Yale University（耶鲁大学数学、地球与行星科学及物理系）
LUCIE-3D: A three-dimensional climate emulator for forced responses
Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Allen Insitute of Artificial Intelligence（人工智能 Allen 机构）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；University of California, Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）
Quantitative implications of the secondary role of carbon dioxide climate forcing in the past glacial-interglacial cycles for the likely future climatic impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcings
ClimateBench v2.0: Probabilistic Climate Model Benchmarking
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所）；Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)（德国航空航天中心）；Schmidt Sciences（施密特科学中心）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence（艾伦人工智能研究所）；Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of East Anglia（东英吉利大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Met Office（英国气象局）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Alfred Wegener Institute（阿尔弗雷德·魏格纳研究所）；National Center for Atmospheric Research（美国国家大气研究中心）；Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg（马格德堡奥托·冯·格里克大学）；University of Bristol（布里斯托尔大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；NVIDIA Research（英伟达研究院）；NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies（美国国家航空航天局戈达德空间研究所）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Changes in Ugandan Climate Rainfall at the Village and Forest Level
2013年，美国国家海洋和大气局改进了非洲大陆的历史降雨量估计，并制作了非洲降雨气候2.0版（ARC 2）估计器。ARC 2提供了自1983年以来几乎完整的每日降雨量估计记录，分辨率为0.1 x 0.1度。尽管短期异常，在每年两次的雨季强度在乌干达，我们确定在过去的34年中，平均降雨量约12%的整体下降。从时空上看，乌干达中部和西部农业地区的降水量减少最多，但也反映了乌干达西南部布温迪森林大猩猩栖息地的降雨量减少。这些发现对农业、粮食安全和野生动物栖息地具有重要意义。
A Fast and Physically Grounded Ocean Model for GCMs: The Dynamical Slab Ocean Model of the Generic-PCM (rev. 3423)
Observatoire astronomique de l’Université de Genève（日内瓦大学天文台）；Centre pour la vie dans l’Univers de l’Université de Genève（日内瓦大学宇宙生命中心）；Group of Applied Physics and Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva（日内瓦大学应用物理组与环境科学研究所）；Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université（索邦大学海洋与气候实验室LOCEAN/IPSL）；Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université（法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学动力气象学实验室/IPSL）；Laboratoire d’astrophysique（天体物理学实验室）
Statistics of Temperature Extremes and Implications for Electrical Power Infrastructure in Continental France
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, École Normale Supérieure（动力气象实验室，巴黎高等师范学院）；Réseau de Transport d’Electricité（法国电力传输网络）；Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA Saclay - L’Orme des Merisiers（气候与环境科学实验室，塞拉克亚科学院-梅齐尔橄榄树园区）
Unveiling the Shortwave Absorption Spectra of Alumina Aerosols: Implications for Solar Radiation Modification
Washington University in St. Louis（华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校）；Veterans Affairs Medical Center（退伍军人事务医疗中心）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center（达沃斯物理气象观测站和世界辐射中心）；John A Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University（哈佛大学约翰·A·保尔森工程与应用科学学院）；Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室纳米材料科学中心）
Assessment of Future Changes in Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Southern Ontario using North American (NA)-CORDEX Models with Nonstationary Methods
