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arXiv 0803.1959physics.space-phphysics.ao-ph
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人类活动使热带地区变宽了吗?

Does human activity widen the tropics?

Katya Georgieva, Boian Kirov

摘要:

Seidel等人(2008年)在《自然地球科学》第一期上发表的进展文章-气候变化中热带带的加宽-总结了确定热带带宽度的几种方法的结果。所有这些都表明热带地区在过去几十年里一直在扩张。我们根据另一个指标-副热带高压中心的位置来确认这种扩大。然而,我们质疑作者的暗示,即热带地区的扩大是对人类活动的反应,并认为太阳活动的增加是一个更可能的原因。因此,我们质疑他们的结论,这种扩大可能会持续到未来与人类活动的气候变化,并建议热带地区是否会继续扩大将取决于未来的演变太阳活动,而不是人类活动。

英文摘要:

The progress article - Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate - by Seidel et al. (2008) published in the first issue of Nature Geosciences, summarizes the results of several methods to determine the width of the tropical zone. All they show evidence that the tropics have been expanding over the past few decades. We confirm this widening based on one more indicator - the position of the subtropical centers of high pressure. However, we question the implication of the authors that the tropics widen in response to human activity, and suggest as a more probable cause the increasing solar activity. Consequently, we question their conclusion that this widening may continue into the future in association with anthropogenic climate change, and suggest that whether the tropics will continue widening will depend on the future evolution of solar activity rather than on anthropogenic activity.

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