AI 中文总结
本研究通过贝叶斯非平稳广义极值分布，结合CMIP6模拟与E-OBS实测数据，分析法国大陆极端温度特征，发现高排放下奥克西塔尼大区2080年或达57℃，TRACC低估温度，还评估了5处电力设施受影响情况。
AI 中文摘要
本文针对法国大陆的极端温度开展极值统计研究，重点关注其对电力基础设施的影响。研究采用贝叶斯框架拟合非平稳广义极值分布，该方法还能为所有估计结果提供误差或不确定性数值。研究中结合了28个CMIP6模式的模拟数据与E-OBS数据集的实测记录，研究的气候情景包括SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5，涵盖1850年至2099年的历史及未来气候。该方法提供了0.25度网格的完整空间分辨率，可评估任意位置的极端温度。基于此，本文展示了法国大陆年最高高温极端值的空间结构地图，包括中位数和统计上限，以及本世纪末法国各行政区域的汇总信息。统计显示，在高排放情景下，到2080年奥克西塔尼大区西南部可能达到57°C，为法国大陆所有区域中最高。本文还与法国参考气候适应轨迹TRACC（Trajectoire de réchauffement de Référence pour l'Adaptation au Changement Climatique）进行了对比，发现TRACC可能低估了上述最高温度，实际温度可能高出8°C。此外，本文还研究了5个参考电力基础设施位置受极端温度影响的情况，并量化了影响强度。
英文摘要
In this article, we present extreme value statistics of temperature extremes over continental France with a focus on their implications for electrical power infrastructure. These are obtained by fitting a non-stationary generalised extreme value distribution using a Bayesian setup, which also provides errors or uncertainty values for all estimates. Within this method, a combination of simulated data from a collection of 28 CMIP6 models and measured records from the E-OBS dataset is used. The investigated climate scenarios are SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, considering both historical and future climates spanning the years from 1850 to 2099. The method provides full spatial resolution on a 0.25 degree grid, allowing to asses extreme temperatures at arbitrary locations. Leveraging this particular aspect, various maps revealing the spatial structure of annual maximum high temperature extremes over continental France for the median and the statistical upper bound are shown together with summary information for the administrative regions in France towards the end of the century. It is statistically possible that the south west region of Occitanie could reach temperatures of up to 57°C under a high emission scenario by 2080, which is the highest compared to all other regions in continental France. We also perform a comparison to the reference climate adaptation trajectory for France (TRACC - Trajectoire de réchauffement de Référence pour l'Adaptation au Changement Climatique), showing that it potentially underestimates the stated maximum temperatures which could be surpassed by up to +8°C. Furthermore, five reference electrical power infrastructure locations are investigated on how they are potentially affected by temperature extremes with the quantified intensities.
Comments39 pages, 7 figures, submitted to journal: Weather and Climate Extremes
