气候变暖时的延迟季节循环和非洲季风
Delayed Seasonal Cycle and African Monsoon in a Warmer Climate
摘要：
温室气体的增加将改变地球气候的许多方面，从年平均值到热浪和干旱等极端事件的频率。在这里，我们报告说，目前这一代的气候模式预测全球降雨和海洋温度的季节性周期的延迟，以应对温室气体的增加，对区域季风的重要影响。特别是，预计半干旱的非洲萨赫勒地区的雨季开始较晚，时间较短：这对当地的农业和畜牧业来说是一个不利的变化。以前的工作突出了该地区对人为全球变暖的反应的不确定性：夏季降雨量预计将减少或增加高达30%，这取决于使用哪种模型。降雨量变化的季节分布模型之间的强有力的协议意味着雨季的开始日期和长度应该比年度平均异常更可预测。
英文摘要：
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in the seasonal cycle of global rainfall and ocean temperature in response to increasing greenhouse gases, with important implications for the regional monsoons. In particular, the rainy season of the semi-arid African Sahel is projected to start later and become shorter: an undesirable change for local rainfed agriculture and pastoralism. Previous work has highlighted the uncertainty in this region's response to anthropogenic global warming: summer rainfall is predicted either to decrease or increase by up to 30% depending which model is used. The robust agreement across models on the seasonal distribution of rainfall changes signifies that the onset date and length of the rainy season should be more predictable than annual mean anomalies.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
