arXiv 2604.201852026-04-22eess.SYcs.SY

考虑风险的灵活负荷接入在配电网中的承载能力分析

Risk-Aware Hosting Capacity Analysis for Flexible Load Interconnection in Distribution Networks

Gobinda Chandra Sarker, Nathan Dahlin

AI总结：

本文提出一种考虑风险的承载能力框架，通过控制过度削减的风险和干预频率，提升配电网在灵活负荷接入中的承载能力。

摘要：

随着柔性负荷（如电动汽车和AI数据中心）的增加，需要新的方法来量化在运行约束和灵活接入协议下的电气负荷承载能力。我们提出了一种风险意识的承载能力框架，明确考虑了灵活性（以负荷削减形式）和系统可靠性。所提出的方法结合了条件价值风险（CVaR）约束以控制过度削减的尾部风险，确保极端干预受限。此外，引入了加权ℓ₁方法以限制用户控制的干预次数，从而控制削减动作的频率。通过正则化参数将干预次数调节到预期的干预预算。所得到的优化公式是凸的，可以高效求解，允许可扩展的实现。数值结果表明，所提出的方法显著提高了承载能力，同时保持严格的风险保证并限制干预频率，为配电网在灵活性和可靠性之间提供了实用的平衡。

英文摘要：

The increasing penetration of flexible loads, such as electric vehicles and AI data-centers necessitates new methodologies for quantifying electrical load hosting capacity under operational constraints and flexible connection agreements. We propose a risk-aware hosting capacity framework that explicitly accounts for both flexibility, in the form of load curtailment, and system reliability. The proposed method incorporates a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constraint to control the tail risk of excessive curtailment, ensuring that extreme interventions remain limited. Additionally, a weighted $\ell_1$ approach is introduced to limit the number of utility-controlled interventions, enabling control over the frequency of curtailment actions. A regularization parameter is used to tune the intervention count to a desired intervention budget. The resulting optimization formulation is convex and efficiently solvable, allowing scalable implementation. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly increases hosting capacity while maintaining strict risk guarantees and limiting intervention frequency, providing a practical balance between flexibility and reliability in distribution systems.

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